Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers Point Spread Pick - Odds - Free ATS Prediction

October 14, 3:45 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Memphis -3.5

Two of the top teams in the AAC’s West Division title race will decide things on the field this Saturday with the No. 25 Navy Midshipmen putting their perfect 5-0 record on the line against the 4-1 Memphis Tigers in a 3:45 p.m. (ET) kickoff at the Liberty Bowl on ESPNU.

Navy at Memphis Game Overview

Navy remains on track for a second-straight AAC West Division title at 3-0 straight-up in conference play as part of an overall 5-0 start. It has covered against the spread in three of the five games and the total has stayed UNDER the closing line in three of those contests. The Midshipmen are a perfect 2-0 on the road both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in both of those games.

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One of the main reasons for Navy’s continues success is a strong commitment to running the ball. Heading into Saturday’s contest, it remains the top-ranked rushing team in the nation with an incredible average of 414.2 yards per game. The passing game is basically nonexistent with Zach Abey under center with an average of just 94.2 yards a game, but he has been the team’s leading rusher with 870 yards and nine touchdowns on 146 carries.

The Tigers come into this game at 4-1 SU with a 2-3 record ATS after knocking off Connecticut 70-31 last Friday night as 16-point road favorite. The total went way OVER the closing 74.5-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in three of their first four games with a posted betting line. Memphis is a perfect 3-0 at home this season including a wild 48-45 victory against UCLA as a slight 2.5-point underdog, but it has failed to cover in the other two wins as a heavy favorite.

The formula for success on this offense has been a passing game that is ranked 15th in the nation in yards per game with 316.8. Quarterback Riley Ferguson has completed 116 of his first 196 passing attempts for 1,535 yards and 16 touchdowns against five interceptions. The Tigers have also done a good job running the ball behind Darrell Henderson with an average of 192.6 rushing yards per game. While Memphis is averaging 37.8 points per game, it is allowing an average of 35.2 points on the other side of the ball.

Navy at Memphis Game Betting Trends

  • The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, but they fall to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Tigers have failed to cover in nine of their last 11 games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games coming off a SU win. The total has gone OVER in 20 of their last 28 home games.
  • Navy has won the previous two games in this matchup both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in both contests.

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers Week 7 ATS Pick

Both teams may employ different means to move the ball down the field, but each one has been highly effective at getting the ball into the end zone. The fact that Navy can do it so effectively on the ground gives it the slight edge in this matchup. The spread has come down from four points to 3.5 and it should continue to move in favor of the Midshipmen so I am locking things in right now with a play on Navy covering ATS.

Free Pick: 
Take Navy +3.5

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