Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds - Free ATS Pick
The Georgia Dome in Atlanta will be the site for this Saturday's SEC title game between the Missouri Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kickoff for this winner-take-all affair is set for 4 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
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The Tigers only two losses this season were to Indiana as 14.5-point home favorites and to Georgia as three-point underdogs at home. They covered against the spread in eight of their 12 games including their final four outings of the season and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games. Missouri clinched the East Division title with a 21-14 victory against Arkansas in its regular season finale as a 2.5-point home underdog.
This is a really good ball club that has beaten the teams it was supposed to this season, but it is going to have to play the game of its life to come away with a win this Saturday afternoon. Quarterback Maty Mauk has thrown for 2,279 yards and 22 touchdowns, but he has only completed 53.5 percent of his 361 attempts while getting picked-off 11 times. The Tigers did a fairly decent job moving the ball on the ground with an average of 176 rushing yards a game and its defense was ranked 13th in the nation in points allowed (19.7). If they can hit both of these averages in this game, they would have a chance to actually win.
Alabama has not been nearly as dominating as it has been in previous SEC title runs, but right now this is still the best team by far in the nation's top power conference. The Tide passed every test SU except for one in a stunning 23-17 loss to Ole Miss as 4.5-point road favorites, but ATS they went a costly 3-8-1. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games.
In typical fashion with previous seasons where they claimed the SEC crown as well as the national title, the Tide's defense has been largely responsible for this team's incredible success over the years. This season it is ranked sixth in the nation in points allowed (16.9), but there could be some cause for concern after giving-up 44 points this past Saturday in a wild 11-point victory against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Missouri's offense is not as nearly as dynamic as last week's Tigers so Alabama should be able to keep the scoring much lower in this game.
The Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in conference play. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five neutral-site games.
The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at a neutral site, but just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 neutral-site games.
The only previous time these two teams played one another was in 2012 with Alabama rolling to a 42-10 victory as a 21-point road favorite. The total went OVER the 40.5-point closing line.
Missouri vs. Alabama Game Point Spread Pick
It is hard to see Alabama losing this game with so much on the line as far as the national playoffs, but I do not see it blowing the doors off the Tigers at the Georgia Dome. The Tide will get the SU win and another SEC Championship for the trophy cabinet, but bank on the Tigers making them work for it to cover with the 14.5 points.