Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Week 11 Total & Spread Picks

Date: 
November 13, 12:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
MSST +4/AUB -4
Total: 
51

The 13th ranked Auburn Tigers will host the no. 17 Mississippi State Bulldogs on the Plains at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday. At 6-3 SU overall and 3-2 SU in SEC play, Auburn will partake in their 5th straight game against a top 20 opponent. The Tigers suffered losses to no. 2 Georgia and most recently against no. 14 Texas A&M in a 20-3 outcome. However, they were also able to pull out victories against no. 17 Arkansas and no. 10 Ole Miss. If the Tigers can pull out another win on Saturday, the 2021 edition of the Iron Bowl could have SEC Championship implications on the line.

The visiting Bulldogs have battled through consistency issues this season. After knocking off no. 15 Texas A&M in College Station, the Bulldogs were blown out by Alabama in a 49-9 loss. Two weeks later, the Bulldogs struck paydirt again with a 31-17 victory over no. 12 Kentucky before being upset by Arkansas last week in a 31-28 finale. Ultimately, Mike Leach’s offense has lived and died by the play of sophomore quarterback Will Rogers who has thrown for 3,300 yards with 23 touchdowns and 8 picks on the season. In Saturday’s meeting with Auburn, I believe Rogers and the Bulldogs offense will have opportunities to exploit the Tigers’ pass defense which means there may be some value on the 5.5 point betting spread.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Trends

  • The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games
  • The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games on the road
  • The Bulldogs have hit the “under” in 12 of the last 18 games against SEC opponents
  • The Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games against Auburn
  • The Tigers are 15-3 SU in the last 18 games at home
  • The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against SEC West opponents
  • The Tigers have hit the “under” in 5 of the last 7 games
  • The Tigers have hit the “under” in 7 of the last 9 games against Mississippi State

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Analysis

In breaking down this battle from a match-up standpoint, there are cases to be made by taking the “over” in this game. Currently listed at just a 50 point total, both Auburn and Mississippi State’s offenses will have downhill match-ups that should create scoring opportunities. The Tigers’ rushing attack led by Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter will get a great match-up against a Bulldogs defense that just gave up over 200 yards on the ground to Arkansas. Furthermore, QB Bo Nix is not the greatest pure passer but if Auburn is able to get things going on the ground; Nix is excellent in the play-action and rolling outside of the pocket to hit opportunities down the field.

With that being said, I’m not exactly convinced that Auburn is going to run away with this game by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I am leaning towards the Bulldogs as an outright pick. QB Will Rogers seems to get better with each performance and WR Makai Polk may be the most dangerous skill position talent on the field this Saturday. More importantly, I believe Auburn’s biggest weakness on defense is against the pass. We just have not seen Auburn face many pure throwing teams this year to create the narrative that the passing defense is “struggling.” Auburn currently ranks right in the middle of the FBS allowing 224 yards per game through the air. However against the passing attacks of Ole Miss, Penn State, and LSU, Auburn was thrashed for more than 300 yards in each of those contests. In what I believe to be their biggest challenge of the season, I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs strike quick and often.

I really like the over 51 and would also consider Mississippi State +4

Free Pick: 
Take Mississippi St. +4.5 and the Over 51