Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds - Free Point Spread Pick
The Mississippi State Bulldogs continue their quest for one of four national playoff spots with a trip to Tuscaloosa this Saturday to tangle with the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff for this SEC-West Division showdown is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
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The Bulldogs have done everything right so far in their perfect 8-0 straight-up start, but it could all be for naught with a loss in this game. There could also be some concern for bettors given that Mississippi State has now failed to cover against the spread in its last three games after going 5-1 ATS in its first six outings this year. The total has gone OVER in four of its last six games.
It is not a matter of talent for the Bulldogs heading into this showdown, but how it will hold up on the biggest of stages it has played on this year. Dak Prescott is a legitimate Heisman contender after throwing for 2,231 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding another 779 yards and 11 scores on the ground. Mississippi State's defense is one of the best in the nation in points allowed (19.7). The trick to winning this game will be avoiding the costly mistakes that have ended many a team's run at a perfect season.
Alabama has quietly put itself in position for another trip to the SEC title game as well as a spot in this year's national playoffs. This past Saturday's 20-13 overtime victory against LSU as seven-point road favorites raised the Tide's overall record to 8-1 SU, but the PUSH on the closing betting odds left them just 2-6-1 ATS this season. The total stayed UNDER the 46.5-point closing line against the Tigers and it has now stayed UNDER in four of their last five games.
The best thing that Alabama has going for it in this game besides playing at home, is the proven ability to win the truly big games it plays. One by one, the long list of contenders in the SEC have dropped back a bit in the title race and head coach Nick Saban knows that his team has a golden opportunity to send another one packing this Saturday afternoon. This will be another battle to the bitter end that could come down to the final possession of the game, but that is exactly what you would expect in a matchup such as this.
The Bulldogs are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 games as an underdog on the road, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four road games in conference play.
The Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites and they are 7-0 both SU and ATS in their last seven home games against a team from the SEC. The total has gone OVER in three of their last five conference games at home.
Head-to-head in this West Division clash, Mississippi State is just 2-11 SU in the last 13 meetings and it brings a six-game SU losing streak to the Tide into this matchup. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Game Point Spread Pick
Defense will be the name of the game in this showdown as points are going to be hard to come by against either team's defense. In the end, I think that Alabama once again finds a way to win, but it will not be by seven points or more in what I am making one of my college football "best bets" of the week.