Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes Odds & Prediction ATS

November 26, 12:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Mich +7.5/Ohio St. -7.5

Once again, the Big Game of the Year in the Big 10 comes down to Michigan and Ohio State, who meet for the 118th time (depending on the source) Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe in Columbus. These teams are both 11-0 overall and 8-0 in the Big 10 and sit in the No. 2 and 3 spots in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, So there stands a darn good chance this game will decide a berth in the CFP. The Buckeyes dominated this rivalry for a decade and a half, but the Wolverines won last year's meeting. Which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Michigan-Ohio State Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened Ohio State as an eight-point favorite over Michigan, with an over/under of right around 57. Early betting action then dipped that line to 7.5 at some shops with the total line falling to 56.5..

Michigan-Ohio State College Football Betting Preview

The Wolverines are 11-0 for the first time since 2006 after outlasting Illinois at the Big House last week 19-17. Michigan, favored by 17 points, drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown but only led 7-3 at the half. The Wolverines then fell behind to the Illini 17-10 late in the third quarter but rallied to score the last nine points of the game, the final three on a game-winning field goal with nine seconds left, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. However, the Wolverines never threatened to cover that spread. Michigan out-gained Illinois 376-326, out-rushed the Illini 168-148, and won time of possession by a 35:25 split. So the Wolverines have now out-gained and out-rushed each of their 11 opponents this season, most by huge margins. Michigan is also 4-1 ATS its last five times out, allowing just 12 points per game. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are 11-0 for the fourth time over the last 11 seasons after winning at Maryland last week 43-30. Ohio State, favored by 25 points, drove the opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown but trailed 13-10 at the half. The Buckeyes then scored the first 17 points of the second half to go up 27-13, allowed the Terrapins to get within 33-30 with 10 minutes left but hung on from there, securing the victory with a defensive touchdown in the waning seconds. But Ohio State never really threatened to cover that spread. The Buckeyes actually got out-gained by Maryland 402-401. So OSU has now been out-gained by three of its last four opponents. It's also 1-3 ATS its last four times out. Big-picture, these two teams are tied for the lead in the Big 10 East, so this game will decide a berth in the conference championship game. And considering either of these teams will be a heavy favorite over the Big 10 West champion, this game will probably decide a berth in the CFP. On the injury front, both these teams are banged-up in the offensive backfields. Bettors might be wise to check later reports before getting down on this game.

Common Opponents

These two teams played six common opponents this season; Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Rutgers. Michigan played those foes to 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, and +183 yards per game, Ohio State to 6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, and +200 YPG.

Michigan-Ohio State Recent History

The Buckeyes beat the Wolverines 15 out of 16 meetings from 2004-19, but last year Michigan awoke to beat Ohio State 42-27 on its way to the CFP. In fact, the Wolverines are 5-3 ATS over the last eight meetings, keeping most games close while getting points.

College Football Betting Trends

In games involving two AP Top 25 teams this season, the higher-ranked outfits are 23-19 SU and 17-24 ATS.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 8-3 in Michigan games this season which are averaging 51 total points.
  • The Overs are 8-3 in Ohio State games which are averaging 63 points.
  • The Overs are 8-0 over the last eight meetings between these teams, which have trended really high-scoring.

Michigan at Ohio State Pick ATS 11/26/22

First off, it might rain Saturday in Columbus, although rain doesn't always affect football games as we might think. From there, the Ohio State offense without its top two RBs - which is a possibility Saturday - gets our handicapping check-mark over the Michigan offense without its top two ball carriers. Also, while the Wolverines' defense ranks No. 1 in FBS, they haven't exactly played much of a schedule. Finally, five of Ohio State's last six wins over Michigan came by double digits. We're betting on the Buckeyes Saturday.  

Free Pick: 
Take Ohio State -7.5