Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans Odds & Pick

October 30, 12:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Mich -4/Mich St +4

It's the biggest Battle for Paul Bunyan's Trophy almost ever when 7-0 Michigan meets 7-0 Michigan State Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. It's not a total surprise that the Wolverines are undefeated at this point, ever after going 2-4 last year, but the Spartans are a shocker after being picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten East this season.

Michigan opened as a short road favorite for this game, and early betting action leaned toward the Maize and Blue. Which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Michigan-Michigan State Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Wolverines as three-point favorites over the Spartans, with an over/under of right around 51. Early betting action then bumped Michigan to -4.

Michigan Betting Preview

The Wolverines are 7-0 on the season after beating Northwestern last week 33-7. Michigan scored the first 10 points of the game and led 10-7 at the half. The Wolverines then drove the second half's opening possession 74 yards to a touchdown and pulled away from there for the victory and the cover as 23-point favorites.

Michigan out-gained the Wildcats 457-233, and 75 of Northwestern's yards came on one play. The Wolverines also out-rushed the 'Cats 294-100 and dominated the time of possession by a 39:21 split.

So Michigan has now out-gained and out-rushed every opponent this season except, somewhat amazingly, Rutgers.

Michigan State Betting Preview

The Spartans, meanwhile, are also 7-0 on the season after winning at Indiana two weeks ago 20-15. Michigan State then had last week off to prepare for this game.

MSU spotted Hoosiers the first three points of the game two weeks ago, punted on its first six possessions, and trailed 9-7 at the half. But the Spartans then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room to take the lead, later stopped an Indiana 2-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game kicked a field goal, and held on for the win and the money at -3.5.

Michigan State actually got out-gained by the Hoosiers 322-241 and lost time of possession by a 34:26 split but won the turnover battle 3-2, creating a +11 points differential.

The Spartans have now been out-gained three times in their last four games.

At 4-0 in conference play, these two teams are tied with Ohio State for first place in the Big Ten East. So the loser of this game will likely be eliminated from contention for a spot in the conference championship game.

Michigan-Michigan State History

The Wolverines lead the all-time rivalry with the Spartans 71-37-5 and won three of four meetings from 2016-19. But last year, Michigan State went into a nearly empty Big House and beat Michigan 27-24 outright as a 22-underdog, giving Coach Tucker his first victory with the program.

Also, that game sneaked under a total of 52.

More Picks:

Totals Report

The Under is 4-3 in Michigan games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.

The Under is 4-3 in Michigan State games this season, which are averaging 53 points.

The Under is 3-1 over the last four meetings between these two teams.

Wolverines vs. Spartans Prediction 10/30/21

We just see Michigan as the better team here, especially on defense, playing on the road, where spreads tend to be friendlier. Also, while we don't consider revenge a totally reliable handicapping factor, it might come into play here, following that shocking Wolverines home loss last season. So we're betting Michigan, minus the points.   

Free Pick: 
Take Michigan -4