LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Week 11 Pick

November 9, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Alabama -6

Alabama owns an eight-game winning streak in the rivalry with LSU, going 6-2 against the spread in the process, heading into the Game of the Year in college football so far this season Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa. The Tide is only favored by a short touchdown for this one, but they're also not quite sure if they'll have their No. 1 quarterback. How are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

Week 11's college football betting odds opened Alabama at -6 over LSU, with an over/under of right around 65. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Tigers vs. Tide Set-Up

Louisiana State is 8-0 on the season, ranked No. 1 in this week's AP poll. Most recently, the Tigers defeated Auburn two weeks ago, 23-20. They then had last week off.

LSU actually trailed those other Tigers 13-10 well into the third quarter two weeks ago but scored touchdowns on back-to-back possessions to take the lead for good. The Tigers later allowed Auburn to pull within one score, held on for the victory, but couldn't cover the spread as 11-point favorites.

On the day LSU out-gained Auburn 508-287, won first downs 30-16 and held a 33:27 edge in time of possession. But the Tigers came up empty on four drives that penetrated the Auburn 30-yard line, including one that reached the 1, all of which combined to keep them from cashing in on the money.

Just prior to that game, LSU won at Mississippi State 36-13, covering at -17, and just before that, the Tigers beat Florida 42-28, pushing the spread at -14.


Alabama, meanwhile, is also 8-0 on the season, ranked No. 2. Two weeks ago, playing most of the game with their back-up quarterback, the Tide rolled over Arkansas 48-7. They then also had last week off.

'Bama hit the board on its first five possessions against the Razorbacks, led 41-0 at the half and 48-0 before allowing the Hogs to score a meaningless touchdown early in the fourth quarter. The Tide also hung on for the cover as 32-point favorites.

On the day Alabama out-gained Arkansas 459-213, held a 35:25 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 4-0, returning one interception for a pick-six.

Mac Jones, starting at QB in place of an injured Tua Tagovailoa, hit on 18/22 throws for 235 yards and three touchdowns, without an interception.

Just prior to that, Alabama beat Tennessee 35-13 but couldn't cover at -34.

As of this writing, Tagovailoa's status for Saturday was still uncertain, but we're guessing he'll play.

With Alabama 5-0 in conference play and LSU 4-0, this game will probably decide a berth in the SEC championship game, and quite possibly a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Tigers-Tide Recent History

As mentioned above, Alabama is 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS over the last eight meetings with LSU, winning the previous three meetings by a combined score of 63-10. Last year the Tide trounced the Tigers 29-0, covering as two-touchdown favorites.

College Football Betting Trends

  • LSU is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
  • LSU is 18-3 SU, 12-9 ATS with Joe Burrow as the starter at quarterback.
  • LSU is 7-2 ATS its last nine games as an underdog.
  • Alabama is 3-3 ATS at home this season.
  • Alabama under Coach Saban is 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against LSU under Coach Orgeron.
  • Over 23 games this season matching ranked opponents, the higher-ranked outfits are 16-7 SU but only 11-12 ATS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 5-3 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 67 total points.
  • Totals are split 4-4 in Tide games this season, which are averaging 64 points.
  • Unders are 5-0 over the last five games in the series between these two teams, and 9-1 over the previous ten meetings, as the Tigers and Tide have played a bunch of low-scoring games. In fact, the last three meetings have averaged just 24 total points.

LSU at Alabama Prediction 11/09/19

Louisiana State and its QB are getting most of the ink heading into this game, while it almost seems like Alabama is playing under the radar. And that might be the best time to jump on the Tide. They're playing at home, and yet the spread is less than a touchdown, and we've still gotta give Saban the edge in the coaching match-up. He's probably playing the "no respect" card at practice this week. Assuming Tags is good to go, we're giving the points here with Alabama.

Free Pick: 
Take Alabama -6