Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels Free Pick - Odds - ATS Prediction

September 9, 12:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Louisville -9.5

Both the Louisville Cardinals and the North Carolina Tar Heels will get an early start on the conference portion of their 2017 schedule in this Saturday’s ACC clash at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. Game time is set for 12 p.m. (ET) and you can catch all the action live on ESPN.

Louisville at North Carolina Game Overview

The Cardinals fell back a spot in the current AP Top 25 in light of their 35-28 struggle against Purdue last Saturday as heavy 25.5-point road favorites. The total stayed UNDER the closing 65.5-point line in that game. Louisville went 6-7 against the spread last season after failing to cover in its last four games as part of a straight-up record of 9-4. The total stayed UNDER in four of its last six games in 2016.

The big story last season in Louisville was the play of quarterback Lamar Jackson. He passed for 3,543 yards and 30 touchdowns against nine interceptions while adding another 1,571 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground to lockup that season’s Heisman Trophy. With the pressure dialed up for his junior year, he started things with 378 yards passing and 107 yards rushing against the Boilermakers. The problem with the Cardinals in this game was too many turnovers combined with a very shaky defense that gave up almost 300 yards through the air.


North Carolina finished second to Virginia Tech in the ACC’s Coastal Division with a SU conference record of 5-3 as part of an overall record of 8-5. The Tar Heels were also 8-5 ATS last season with the total staying UNDER in eight of their final nine games of the year. They started this season at home against California as 13-point favorites, but wound up on the wrong end of a 35-30 loss. The total easily went OVER the closing 57-point line in that game.

Mitch Trubisky is playing his football in the NFL these days, so it was up to Brandon Harris to fill that void at quarterback in last Saturday’s season opener. After tossing two interceptions in his first 16 passes, head coach Larry Fedora turned to freshman redshirt Chazz Surratt and he completed 18-of-28 attempts for 161 yards and one score. This loss was a major setback for the Tar Heels given that Cal had the longest odds on the board to win the Pac-12 this season.

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 conference games.
  • The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a SU loss and they are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven ACC games.
  • Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, Louisville has slight 3-2 edge SU in the last five meetings, but it has covered ATS in all five games. The total has gone OVER in two of the last three games in this series.

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels Week 2 Prediction

Neither of these teams looked like they were ready to start the new season as heavy favorites last Saturday, but the difference was Louisville’s ability to find a way to win. It should be a different story this week with the Cardinals taking a big step forward while North Carolina continues to search for ways to lessen the impact of Trubisky’s departure. Lay the 9.5 points on the road with Louisville getting the win both SU and ATS.

Free Pick: 
Take Louisville -9.5

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