Louisville Cardinals at Duke Blue Devils Odds & Free Pick

November 18, 7:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Louv -20/Duke +20

Louisville needs one more win over its last two games to become bowl-eligible and hopes to get that win when it meets Duke for an ACC bout Thursday night in Durham. The Cardinals just snapped a two-game losing skid while the Blue Devils, following a promising start to this season, have lost six in a row.

Who do we like here, our free college football betting pick?

Louisville-Duke Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Cardinals as 19-point road favorites for this game, with an over/under of right around 60. Early betting action then edged that spread to 20 and the total to 60.5.

Louisville Betting Preview

The Cardinals are 5-5 on the season after beating Syracuse last Saturday 41-3. Louisville, coming off back-to-back tough losses to Clemson and North Carolina State, scored touchdowns on five of its first six possessions of the game, led 35-3 at the half, and cruised home from there for the easy victory and the cover as a three-point favorite.

The Cardinals out-gained the Orange 382-184.

So Louisville has now out-gained each of its last four opponents and out-rushed its last six foes.

Two weeks ago, the Cardinals led Clemson 24-17 in the fourth quarter but lost 30-24. Three weeks ago, they led NC State 10-7 in the fourth quarter but lost 28-13. In fact, Louisville either led or was tied in the fourth quarter in four of its five losses this season.

At 3-4 in conference play, the Cardinals are out of the running in the ACC, but at 5-5 overall, they need one more win over their last two games - they host Kentucky in the season finale next week - to return to a bowl, after missing out last season.

Duke Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 3-7 on the season after losing at Virginia Tech last Saturday, 48-17. Duke gave up the first 14 points of the game and trailed 17-3 at the half. The Blue Devils then gave up the first 10 points of the second half to fall behind by 24 on their way toward defeat.

Duke also came up well short against the spread as a 14-point dog.

The Blue Devils got out-gained by the Hokies 573-343, gave up 297 yards on the ground, missed a make-able field goal when the game was still tied, and gave up a pick-6.

So Duke has now been out-gained and out-rushed by each of its last four opponents and by large margins.

Two games ago, the Dukies lost to Pitt 54-29; three games ago, they lost to Wake Forest 45-7; and four games ago, they lost to Virginia 48-0.

At 0-6 in conference play and 3-7 overall, Duke is playing out the string on its third straight bowl-less season.

These teams have met just once since Louisville joined the ACC back in 2014, a 24-14 Cardinals victory in 2016.

College Football Betting Trends

Duke is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 games as a home dog.

Totals Report

The Under is 7-3 in Cardinals games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.

Totals are split 5-5 in Blue Devils games this season, which are averaging 61 points.

Louisville at Duke Prediction ATS 11/18/21

These two teams have played two common opponents this season; Louisville played Virginia and Wake Forest to a total of +2 yards while Duke played the Cavaliers and Demon Deacons to a total of -565 yards. Also, the Cardinals are playing for a bowl bid while the Blue Devils are just playing out the string. Finally, Louisville is playing on the road, where the spreads are usually a bit friendlier. We like the Cardinals here, minus the points. 

Free Pick: 
Take Louisville -20