Liberty vs. Ole Miss Rebels Week 10 Odds &Free Pick

November 6, 12:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LIB +9/MISS -9

Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels suffered a setback last week with a 31-20 loss on the Plains in Auburn. Despite another solid outing on offense behind QB Matt Corral, the Rebels continued to struggle on defense by giving up more than 200 yards rushing on the ground. Additionally, Kiffin himself came under fire this week after several costly missed 4th down opportunities. On Saturday, the Rebels will receive a timely one week break from SEC action when they host the Liberty Flames at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

From an outside perspective, this week's homestand against Liberty seemingly comes at the perfect time. Fresh off a loss against Auburn, Ole Miss has a favorable out of conference match-up before hosting no. 13 Texas A&M next week. However, I would warn bettors that Liberty is not a push over by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, Liberty has a very effective offense behind an outstanding dual threat QB in Malik Willis. Based on the poor play of the Rebels defense, I would not be surprised to see Liberty compete in this contest especially if the Rebels' defense is caught sleeping with the early kick-off. Either way, I think the firepower on offense from both teams will provide bettors with a probable opportunity to target a very reachable total currently listed at 67 points.

Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends

  • Liberty is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 games
  • Liberty is 17-3 SU in the last 20 games
  • Liberty is 6-2 ATS in the last 9 games on the road
  • Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games as a favorite
  • Ole Miss is 7-2 SU in the last 9 games
  • Ole Miss has hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games

Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview

From a match-up perspective, both offenses have big advantages in this game. As mentioned earlier, QB Malik Willis is a dynamic dual threat for Liberty. Willis has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and just 6 picks on the season. The star quarterback also leads the team in rushing with another 684 yards with 9 touchdowns. The balanced attack and misdirection scheme that Liberty uses on offense has all the ingredients to keep the Rebels' defense on their heels. The Ole Miss defense ranks 107th in the FBS allowing over 420 yards per game and has shown no signs of improvement.

Meanwhile, the Rebels have a similar advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Statistically, Liberty is much better defensively on paper allowing just 17.8 points per game combined with just 299 total yards. However, we must consider the competition factor with Liberty's stats. As one of the few Independent teams in college football, Liberty's schedule has featured the likes of Old Dominion, Troy, Middle Tennessee, UAB, and others. On Saturday, the Flames will face an extremely talented Rebels offense that is averaging just shy of 40 points per game and led by one of the better quarterbacks in college football.

QB Matt Corral has posted an impressive stat line this season that features 2,200 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and just 2 picks. Additionally, Corral also leads the Rebels in rushing with 529 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Senior WR Dontario Drummond has turned into a reliable threat on the outside and the entire Rebels' receiving corps will present speed challenges for the Liberty secondary. Not only is the match-up prime for Ole Miss but I would also expect some added motivation following last week's struggles to keep drives alive. As a result, I am expecting a big effort from the Ole Miss offense and combined with my expectations for Liberty; this match-up has shootout potential written all over it.

Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction 11/6/21

Free Pick: 
Take the over 67