Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones Pick

September 14, 4:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Iowa -2.5

Iowa is 2-0 beating Miami of Ohio in their season opener and then getting their first Big Ten win of the season in their last game in a 30-0 shutout win over Rutgers. They hit the road in this non-conference game where they are slight betting favorites, and Hawkeye State bragging rights are on the line facing Iowa State. In the last eight games between these in-state rivals, six games have been close. Last season at Iowa the Hawkeyes won a defensive battle beating the Cyclones 13-3, and in the previous time these teams faced off at Iowa State the Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes in a 44-41 OT shootout.

Iowa State has only played one game, and they escaped with a three-overtime 29-26 win over an FCS Northern Iowa team. They are the slight home favorites and beat Iowa in their last game at home, but they face a ranked Hawkeyes team early this season that has given up only 14 points on the season and whose offense has scored at least 30 points in each of their first two games. Iowa State was ranked in the preseason but dropped out of the top 25 with their narrow win over an FCS squad in their opener. The Cyclones will be well-rested for this game having an extra week to prepare for this big game.

How the Public is Betting the Iowa vs. Iowa State Game

The public has backed Iowa, big time, in this rivalry game, as Iowa State opened as a 3-point favorite, but as of Wednesday, they are now a 2.5-point underdog. The total for this game opened at 46.5 but now is 44.5.

Injury Concerns

Iowa: Cole Banwart is listed as questionable for this game with a foot injury, DB Kaevon Merriweather has been downgraded to out for this game with a foot injury, and LT Alaric Jackson is out for at least two weeks after suffering a knee injury in the Miami of Ohio win.

Iowa State: RB Kene Nwangwu is probable for this game with a knee injury and OL Colin Newell is listed as questionable with a knee injury.

When Iowa Has the Ball

Iowa will look to pass the ball behind veteran senior QB Nate Stanley, who is one of the best in the Big 10. He has 488 passing yards with six TD and no INT and in the win over Rutgers he 236 yards with three TD and no INT. Ihmir Smith-Marsette has been Stanley's main target so far with 148 receiving yards and not only did Iowa State give up 228 passing yards in their win over Northern Iowa, but they also will face an Iowa offensive line that has only given up one sack all season. As for the run game, Mekhi Sargent has rushed for 150 yards, and Toren Young has rushed for 107 yards, and they face a Cyclones defense that only gave up 34 rushing yards in the Northern Iowa game.

When Iowa State Has the Ball

Iowa State had 463 total yards of offense in the win over Northern Iowa, giving up 262 total yards, and they were balanced with 278 passing yards and 185 rushing yards. However, their offense was not impressive in regulation where they only scored 13 points. Brock Purdy was 30/41 for 278 yards with two TD and no INT, and Deshaunte Jones had 14 receptions for 126 yards while no other player had over 45 receiving yards. The Cyclones use a running back by committee system, and in the last game, three players had at least 47 rushing yards led by Johnny Lang with 60 yards.

Betting Trends

Iowa covered the spread in their last game while failing to do so in their opener and Iowa State came nowhere near covering in their opener where they were 22.5-point betting favorites against Northern Iowa. The home team has covered the spread in the last two games between these teams, and while Iowa is 5-2 ATS in their previous seven road games Iowa State has failed to cover in their last four home games. While the Over record is 10-3-1 during the last 14 games between these teams the Under record is 3-0-1 over the previous four games at Iowa State.

Weather Report

The weather forecast for this game is mostly sunny with a few clouds and a 20% chance of rain. It is supposed to be a mild day with a high of 79 degrees.

Iowa at Iowa State Prediction 09/14/2019

Many of the games in the last several seasons between these teams have been close, and this one will be close as well. Iowa State was far from impressive in their win over Northern Iowa, but they have had two weeks to get ready for this game. These teams will play it close until the 4th quarter when Stanley will take over and lead the Hawkeyes to a win, and they will also cover the spread as well.

Free Pick: 
Take Iowa -2.5