Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones Odds & Predictions

September 11, 4:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Iowa +4.5/ISU -4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are cycling in a good direction over recent seasons under Coach Campbell, but one thing they haven't been able to do is to beat Iowa, losing the last five meetings. ISU looks to put an end to that skid when it hosts the Hawkeyes for the annual battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy Saturday afternoon in Ames.

The ‘Clones are favored by one of those numbers between magic numbers; how are we playing this game with our free college football ATS pick?

Iowa-Iowa State Betting Odds

The Week 2 college football betting board opened Iowa State at -3.5 over Iowa, with an over/under of around 44.5. Early betting action then edged the Cyclones to -4.5 and that total to 46.

Any bettors out there thinking the Hawkeyes might win this game outright could get upwards of +165 on the college football money line.

Iowa-Iowa State College Football Betting Preview

The Hawkeyes kicked off their 2021 season with an easier-than-expected 34-6 victory over what’s supposed to be a pretty good Indiana team last week. Iowa took the lead for good 90 seconds into the game on a 56-yard touchdown run by Tyler Goodson, then scored on a pick-6 three plays later to go up 14-0. The Hawkeyes added another pick-6 in the second quarter to lead 28-3 at the half and eased home from there for the win and the easy money as 3.5-point favorites.

Iowa out-rushed the Hoosiers 158-77, although 56 of its yards came on one play. Without that one burst, the Hawkeyes rushed for 102 yards on 35 attempts, which ain't great. But Iowa also won the turnover battle 3-2, creating a +17 points differential.

The Hawkeyes returned 14 starters this year, seven on each side of the ball, from a team that played 6-2 last year. So Iowa is a legitimate contender to win the Big Ten West this season.

The Cyclones, meanwhile, opened their 2021 campaign with an underwhelming 16-10 victory over FCS Northern Iowa last week. Iowa State spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game and needed a field goal at the halftime buzzer to lead 13-10 into the locker room. The Cyclones then out-uglied UNI in the second half, scoring the only three points, winning but coming nowhere close to covering the spread as 28-point favorites.

Iowa State out-gained Northern Iowa 335-275 and won the turnover battle 2-0, twice stopping Panthers drives in its own territory with interceptions.

The Cyclones returned 20 (!) starters this season, all 11 on offense and nine on defense, from a team that played 9-3 last year, won the Big 12 regular-season title, lost to Oklahoma in the conference championship game but beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. If it can get by Iowa here, this team has a legitimate chance to go undefeated into its showdown with the Sooners in Norman in November.

Iowa-Iowa State Recent History

The Cyclones brought a spark to this rivalry by winning 10 of 17 meetings from 1998-2014, but the Hawkeyes now own a five-game series winning streak, going 3-2 against the spread in the process. Most recently, two seasons ago (last year's game was canceled), Iowa won in Ames 18-17, but Iowa State covered at +1.5.

A total of 14 points has decided the last three games in this rivalry.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Iowa is 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS over its last seven games.
  • Iowa State is 17-4 SU, 10-11 ATS over its last 21 home games.
  • Iowa is 9-5 SU, 9-4-1 ATS over its last 14 road games.
  • Iowa State is 23-11 SU, 17-15-2 ATS with Brock Purdy as the starter at QB.

Totals Report

Unders played 5-3 in Iowa games last season, which averaged 48 total points. Then last week's game against Indiana played under a total of 45.5.

Unders played 8-4 in Iowa State games last year, which averaged 54 points. Last week’s game against Northern Iowa then played under a total of 50.

Unders are 4-1-1 over the last six meetings between these two teams, which have averaged 42 total points.

Iowa at Iowa State Prediction 9/11/21

We give Iowa State the edge at quarterback and in the running game while calling the defenses, both great, about equal. And we gotta believe the Cyclones are tired of losing to Iowa - five times in a row is enough. So we're betting Iowa State here, giving the points.  

Free Pick: 
Take Iowa State -4.5