Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview & Pick ATS

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Date: 
November 19, 12:11 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Indiana +10.5 / Michigan State -10.5
Total: 
48

Indiana Hoosiers (3-7 SU, ATS 3-6-0) vs Michigan State Spartans (5-5 SU, ATS 5-5-0)
Date: Saturday, November 19th
Location: Spartan Stadium (MI), East Lansing, MI
TV: BTN
Point Spread: Hoosiers +11.5/Spartans -11.5
Money Line: Hoosiers +357/Spartans -490
Over/Under: 46

RECENT FORM

The Hoosiers head into this week's matchup with an overall record of 3-7. So far, they are just 1-6 in Big Ten play. This season, the Hoosiers have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 3-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 49.45 leading to an over-under record of 5-4-0.

The Hoosiers come into the game off a 56-14 loss to Ohio State. In the win, Indiana completed 37.5% of their 24 passes, 2 of which resulted in touchdowns. In the rushing game, the Hoosiers did not find the endzone while finishing with a total of 150 yards on the ground.

Connor Bazelak heads into the game as the team's top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 71.43. So far, he has completed 211 passes for a total of 2111 yards. Receiver Cam Camper heads into the game, as the team's leader in receiving yards, with a total of 569. The Hoosiers have turned to running back Shaun Shivers a total of 114 times for a total of 419 rushing yards.

In Big Ten play, the Spartans have a record of 3-4. the team's overall record is 5-5. This season, the Spartans have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 52.75 leading to an over-under record of 4-6-0.

In their previous game, Michigan State knocked off Rutgers by a score of 27-21. However, despite the road win, the Spartans did not cover the spread, as they were 10.0-point favorites. In the game, Michigan State finished with 2 touchdowns through the air while throwing for 256 yards. On the ground, the team ended with 1 rushing touchdown while averaging 5.6 yards per carry for a total of 197 yards.

So far, quarterback Payton Thorne has a passer rating of 89.72 while completing 191 of his 302 attempts. Receiver Keon Coleman heads into the game, as the team's leader in receiving yards, with a total of 600. In the run game, Jalen Berger has accumulated 550 yards on 120 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Looking back on their last 10 games, the Hoosiers have an ATS record of just 3-7-0. In addition, their straight-up record is only 3-7-0. On offense, the team averaged 22.4 points per game while allowing 34.6. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 6-4-0.

Although Indiana has a straight-up record of 0-5-0 in their last 5 road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 0-5-0. The team averaged 16.6 points per game in these games.

Over their last 10 games, the Spartans have covered the spread at a rate of 50.0%. In these games, they posted a straight-up mark of 5-5-0. On average, the team scored 24.6 points per game while allowing 25.5, leading to a negative scoring differential.

In their last 5 games at home, the Spartans have a straight-up record of 3-2-0 while going 2-3-0 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 28.0 points per game in these contests.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week's matchup, the Hoosiers are 102nd in the NCAA in points scored at 21 points per contest. Although Indiana has struggled to move the chains on 3rd down throughout the season, they have a chance to take advantage against a Michigan State defense that is allowing an average of 25.5 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

So far, the Indiana offense is averaging just 85.8 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 30.8 rush attempts per game (115th). The Hoosiers will be facing a Michigan State defense ranked 125th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 106.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into this week's matchup, the Spartans will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 89th in the NCAA in points scored at 24.6 points per game.

Although Michigan State has struggled to move the chains on 3rd down throughout the season, they have a chance to take advantage against an Indiana defense that is allowing an average of 34.6 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

Although the Spartans have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs an Indiana defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 66.47%.

So far, the Michigan State offense is averaging just 108.9 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 28.8 rush attempts per game (124th). The Spartans will be facing an Indiana defense that is ranked 138th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 128.86 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into the game, the Spartans will hope for some improved play from their defense, as they are currently 60th at 25.5 points per game allowed.

FREE NCAAF PICK

Michigan State -11.5