Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Boise State Broncos Mountain West Championship Pick

December 7, 4:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Boise State -13.5

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (9-4) will travel to the notorious Blue Turf of Albertson’s Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (11-1) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kick-off time is set for 4:00 PM ET and the game broadcast on ESPN. The Broncos have held the upper hand in this series as they have won and covered in the last six matches between these two parties. The two teams last met on November 12th in Boise, where the Broncos were priced nearly identically as a 13-point favorite and went to work on the Rainbow Warriors. Boise State would defeat Hawaii 59-37 and cover easily as the chalk.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Boise State Broncos Key Injury Concerns

The most notable injury concern surrounds the Boise State camp as Quarterback Hank Bachmeier remains a question mark after injuring his shoulder and missing the Bronco’s last three games as a result. Despite this, Boise State has won all three games since his departure, two of which Boise won by an average of 34 points against the opposition.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Boise State Broncos Overview

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

The Rainbow Warriors come into this contest on a four-game winning streak complemented by a three-game cover streak. Hawaii's most recent venture came last Saturday in Honolulu when it hosted the Army Black Knights for a non-conference match-up. The Rainbow Warriors would cruise to an easy 52-31 win and cover as a 2.5-point favorite in spite of much of the public action on Army.

Boise State Broncos

Boise State survived a scare last Friday in Fort Collins, Colorado, when it narrowly defeated the upset-minded Colorado State Rams in a 31-24 win. Boise State was one of the big public plays last week against CSU but failed to take its backers to the cashier's window when it closed as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos have gone 2-4 ATS in their previous six tilts despite boding a 5-1 SU record overall.

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Reasons To Back Hawaii

The Rainbow Warriors will be a hard sell in this spot given the fact they have failed to come anywhere close to covering, let alone winning in their previous six matches with Boise. The numbers that the Rainbow Warriors were taking back in each of these spots were not small by any means as Hawaii was priced as a 25, 21.5, 28, 27.5, 21.5, and most recently 13-point underdog over this span. Given the fact that Hawaii has lost by no less than 20 points to the Broncos in any given match in its present seven-game skid against Boise State, the fact that Hawaii is priced at this number would suggest that the market believes Hawaii can compete in this affair. After all, the line next to Hawaii is bound to be inflated by virtue of the fact that no one would even consider backing them otherwise unless the price was right. Still, Hawaii will not be given more than two touchdowns which signals that the underdog may actually be the play here not the favorite.

Reasons To Avoid Boise State

Boise State remains undefeated on its own turf this season, and their reputation speaks for itself as to who they are in the national landscape. From a combination of these two narratives alone, takers can also expect to lay enhanced points to Boise State's opponent as a result. However, Boise has had a few scares in the past five weeks, which suggests that perhaps the Broncos have been the benefactors of some bounces that would have otherwise kept them out of this contest. Against Colorado State, Wyoming, and San Jose State, the Broncos trailed in each of these games and were forced to rally from behind to get the win (one of which required overtime). Boise State has been living dangerously, and it makes it difficult to get behind here in this spot, given their quality of opponent. Should Boise fall behind to Hawaii's explosive offense, which generates 35.4 points per game while also attaining sixth-ranked passing numbers (332.5 yards through the air per game), it will be hard for the Broncos to claw their way back into this one. Moreover, laying double digits in a potential shootout (O/U – 64) is never a conducive play, and I cannot suggest such a wager in that regard as well.

Hawaii at Boise State Prediction 12/7/19

This game will be a back and forth affair that will have plenty of scoring. However, an offensive-oriented environment plays right into the hands of the Rainbow Warriors. While I will not advocate the possibility of an outright upset, stranger things have happened. Be that as it may, Hawaii will give Boise State a fight at the minimum, and I cannot see them losing this game by more than 10 points if that. Tremendous value here in taking Hawaii at their present number.

Free Pick: 
Take Hawaii +13.5
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