Georgia vs. Alabama Total Pick

December 4, 4:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
UGA -6.5/ALA +6.5
49 (Opened at 50.5)

The game all college football fans have been waiting for will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Saturday when the no. 1 Georgia Bulldogs battle the 3rd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC Championship. The Crimson Tide has dominated the SEC throughout the Nick Saban era, including victories over former understudy Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 National Championship Game. However, the 2021 season has featured a different taste in the SEC as the Bulldogs have risen to be the perceived top dawg in college football's premier conference. On Saturday, both powerhouses will collide to stake a claim at an SEC Championship and a ticket to the College Football Playoffs.

This "dream" match-up nearly had the importance stripped away courtesy of last week's Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn. The Tigers led the Crimson Tide 10-0 into the 4th quarter before the Crimson Tide rallied in the waning moments. After evening the score, it still took Alabama 4 overtimes before they would eventually get the victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Now for the first time in recent memory, Alabama will be an underdog to an opponent from the SEC East when they enter Mercedes-Benz Stadium as 6.5 point underdogs against the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs. The latter is looking to cap off the best season in the program's rich history.

Georgia defense among best ever

As an old-school fan of SEC football, I would be lying if I said I have not enjoyed watching Georgia dominate on the defensive side of the football. The SEC prides itself in the defense play, and Georgia has taken that concept to the next level. The Bulldogs have been absolutely unbelievable this season on the defensive side of the football. Georgia has produced three shutouts against respectable opponents in Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and most recently in the rivalry against Georgia Tech. Furthermore, this elite Georgia defense has not given up more than 17 points in a single game this year. Georgia's defense has given up just 6.9 points per game which is among the best marks in the modern era, and if this Bulldogs defense can conquer the likes of Alabama on Saturday, they will likely go down as the greatest defense in SEC history.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

The Bulldogs have rarely been challenged this season, and that is largely due to the dominance of the defense. Georgia has beaten all opponents by a minimum of 24 points since the 10-3 opening win over Clemson this season. While the Bulldogs have produced 40.3 points per game, I would not label the offense as overpowering by any stretch of the imagination. QB Stetson Bennett is a glorified game-manager behind a consistently strong running attack that features running backs Zamir White and James Cook. Typically, Georgia's relentless running attack and defensive success wear opponents down as games progress.

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Against a more equally talented opponent, I expect Alabama's defense to have success in this match-up, and the speed from the defensive line will likely provoke one of Bennett's toughest challenges to date. The key for Alabama will be sustaining success on the offensive side of the football to keep their defense off the field and fresh. QB Bryce Young has been very productive this year behind center and has some big-time playmakers in the passing game in receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie III, who have combined for more than 2,200 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. The talent in the passing game will give Alabama the opportunity to compete, as I don't believe they will have much success on the ground against Georgia's defense.

Ultimately, I expect this game to unfold in a very physical, ball-control style game in an old-fashioned slugfest. Let's not overthink this game one bit by historical trends that would suggest a high-scoring affair. Both defenses have significant advantages in this game and will make scoring opportunities extremely hard to come by. I believe Alabama has a chance at the upset if they can make a few plays in the passing game, but I would not be surprised to see the Georgia defense rise to the occasion either. In both situations, I think the best "betting" option is taking the under 50.5 (Line when article submitted) In fact, it is one of my most confident plays of the season.

SEC Championship Game O/U Prediction - UGA vs. ALA Total Pick

Ball control should be the main focus of both teams making the total appear to be the prudent play.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 49