College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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Georgia is the better team here and should win this game, but Notre Dame has enough to keep things interesting. Also, playing at home means the line on the Bulldogs is inflated. And on top of that, we have no problem betting against the public flow. We'll take the Irish and the points here for our free college football pick.
Many of the games in the last several seasons between these teams have been close, and this one will be close as well. Iowa State was far from impressive in their win over Northern Iowa, but they have had two weeks to get ready for this game. These teams will play it close until the 4th quarter when Stanley will take over and lead the Hawkeyes to a win, and they will also cover the spread as well.
Kentucky had its day last season in Gainesville, but Florida is the better team in this match-up, mainly on defense, and should win this game. And playing on the road means the spread is a bit friendlier. We're giving the points with the Gators for our free college football pick.
Alabama's going to win this game, so the only thing that really matters is the point spread. If this game were being played in Tuscaloosa, the Tide would probably be favored by 33-34 points, but playing on the road means the spread is a bit more amenable. Also, while Coach Saban has shown a tendency to ease up on lesser non-conference foes, he doesn't do that with SEC opponents or former assistant coaches. We're betting 'Bama here, and we're getting down early before that spread goes any higher.
Take Alabama -26
This will be a renaissance game for the Panthers who I expect will take out their frustration on this Panthers team with style. A cover will never be in question here as I expect the Panthers wreak havoc from the opening kick-off and paste UNH. This game will be over by the half, but I expect FIU to savor the flavor and build continuity. Florida International can win this game by several scores, and I advise all to lay this number with confidence.
Do I think Norfolk State can actually win this game? I wouldn't suggest that, but stranger things have happened. Here is what will happen. The Spartans will hang around in this game for longer than Coastal Carolina hopes for. Even if Coastal Carolina were to jump out to a lead, I don't see the Monarchs going away so easily. After all, NSU trailed ODU by 14, and they still managed to claw their way back into the game where it was too close for comfort for the Monarchs. There is little question that Coastal Carolina will have their eye off the ball heading into this game as there will be a slew of parties and celebrations throughout the week and all the more makes them susceptible to come in flat on Saturday. I see this game being settled by one possession. Grab the inflated points.
I can see this game being settled by two scores, but this game will never truly get away from UTSA. Given the styles of play and methodical pace that both teams generally play at, a two-touchdown lead can seem daunting to overcome. UTSA will malinger for three quarters until Army finally puts them away. I can't see Army getting ahead by more than three touchdowns, especially since both their passing and kicking game are suspect. The Black Knights will be forced to go for touchdowns only, and they will do so in the most one-dimensional way imaginable which makes this number seem a bit hard to overcome. Should the Black Knights get up by more than two scores nothing is stopping a late junk-time touchdown to bring Frank Wilson's Road Runner crew under this number, as well.
Clemson is the better team here and should win this game, but that spread is probably inflated. Death Valley is undoubtedly one of the toughest places to play in college football, but we feel home-field advantage is regularly overrated by both oddsmakers and bettors alike. And the Tigers only finished 3-4 ATS at home last year, mainly because they were favored by too much too often. Texas A&M probably won't win this game, but we're taking the points.
Against Arizona, the Rainbow Warriors committed six turnovers, and they gave up 539 yards of total offense. With respect to this narrative, Arizona was literally a yard away from sending the game to overtime. Had the contest gone to extra time who is to say that Hawaii gets the job done and pulls off the victory? Oregon State now enters into this contest playing the role that Hawaii did in its previous effort. Given the offensive connotation that will undoubtedly surround this game, I much rather have points to work with as opposed to spotting them. Furthermore, should Hawaii play sloppy as it did against Arizona, I don't like their prospects of pulling another rabbit out from under their hat. I am going to go ahead and put the Rainbow Warriors on upset alert.
As a whole, I was keen to believe that Texas State would take a step forward in 2019. This is their first opportunity to do so. Opening up on the road as a tune-up opponent against one of the trendiest teams in the country that boasts a top-12 ranking is not a good way of measuring the potential of this Bobcats team. However, playing against a notable mid-major that overachieved in Week One is an excellent barometer for determining what this Texas State bunch can do. I would not be shocked by any stretch if the Bobcats won this one outright, but I will play it conservative and take the points.
In my humble opinion, Boise State was set up to pull off the shocker that they did on Saturday as they were up against a "name-brand" team in Florida State that will be favored more by hype and namesake than actual quality. Given what happened last year when Boise State traveled to Oklahoma State where they had their doors blown off, the Broncos came in once again as the underdog that the public sneered at. This role is one that the Broncos have enjoyed occupying and done exceptionally well in. Now, BSU is on the flip-side as everyone expects big things from them. In essence, the hunter becomes the hunted.
On the contrary, Marshall is not being given much of a chance. In finding value, we see Boise State swing essentially 19.5 points from a near-touchdown pooch to a double-digit favorite. Contrarily, Marshall went from a massive 44-point favorite to now a double-digit dog, in essence, creating a 56-point swing on the Herd. That in itself should say where my money is going. However, I expect this game to be a nip-and-tuck affair that Marshall could easily pull the upset. Nevertheless, this one will be close, and I cannot see Boise winning this by more than a touchdown, no matter what. Grab the points.
South Carolina owns a significant advantage in the quarterback comparison, which is probably why the line on this game moved so much. However, Coach Brown brings a little gravitas to North Carolina's situation, and the Heels were better than their record indicated last year. They only got out-gained by six YPG. North Carolina might not win this one outright, but we're taking the Heels and the points.
Oregon probably owns the edge offensively, especially considering Auburn is going with a freshman at quarterback, but the Tigers own the better defense, led by what should be one of the best D lines in the country. And for evenly-matched contests like this, we prefer to bet the better defense. So we're giving the short spread here with Auburn.
Would I be shocked if the Chanticleers staged an upset? Not by any stretch. However, I do not see them overcoming Eastern Michigan by virtue of the coaching edge that lies with the Eagles. After all, this is Coastal Carolina’s first game under Head Coach Jamey Chadwell who is just 3-9 in his career as a Head Coach. EMU's skipper Chris Creighton has a system implemented in place that has made the Eagles relevant again and one that many of the returning players have bought into. The same cannot be inferred for CC. However, the bounty of new starters for Eastern Michigan makes them a dicey proposition as road chalk, and this is a game that will likely be a sloppy one settled by a field goal.
SMU’s defense finished 110th in scoring defense in 2018 giving up an accommodating 35.3 points per game. This is a common trope of the offensive-oriented skipper Sonny Dykes. Unfortunately, SMU’s offense is very weak when it comes to running the rock as they finished 119th in rushing yards per game (115.5 rushing yards per game). Against a team like Arkansas State who is known for flexing their offensive muscles, this is a terrible look for the Mustangs. SMU likely won't be able to keep the fired-up Arkansas State offense off the field, and when the Red Wolves have the ball, they will have little resistance in scoring. This one will be a blow-out. Be that as it may, we are fortunate to spot less than a field goal.
This game could become one-sided, and I do think Florida International is going to get on top of Tulane quick and never look back. FIU is a dangerous team and a name that many should pay attention to. Given how the Panthers schedule sets up, it is a very strong possibility that this unit will find itself undefeated heading into their rivalry clash with FAU on November 9th. Should they get past the Owls unscathed, it will be very interesting to see how things transpire when they host the Miami Hurricanes on November 23rd. However, first thing first, I expect the Panthers to make a statement here and win this one by double-digits. Play this one outright on the Money Line.
I would not be shocked by any means if the Rainbow Warriors staged an upset here. After all, in their opening frame in 2018, Hawaii laid siege to Colorado State in their own yard by a score of 43-34 despite closing as over a 17-point underdog. Hawaii would then follow up this result with another upset of a double-digit favorite when they welcomed Navy to Honolulu in the week after that. Quite frankly, I could see Hawaii being priced as a favorite here much to the chagrin of many as they are the better team with a significant home-field advantage. With Arizona on upset-alert, there is more than enough equity here to take back the points as I can't see Hawaii losing this game by more touchdown or more.
I had predicted that Clemson would beat Notre Dame going away if it brought it’s A Game into the Cotton Bowl. I went on to bet against that happening and paid the price. I am now asking the question, is the Tigers’ A Game good enough to beat Alabama?
The answer to that question remains up in the air, but I do believe that each of these offenses will be able to score enough points to take the total OVER the current 59.5-point line.
LSU was once considered a playoff-caliber team, and they still remain one of the best teams in the nation, but this matchup is all about respect. UCF has beaten every team it has faced for two seasons in a row, including Auburn last season as a heavy underdog in a major bowl game.
Motivation is a critical handicapping factor when it comes to betting college bowls. I honestly believe that UCF goes on to win this game SU, but I will be more than happy to take the 7.5 points in a bet that the Knights cover.
As mentioned, if Clemson can bring its A-Game to Texas it will be a long afternoon for the Irish at the Cotton Bowl. Even if that is the case, covering a double-digit spread against the third-best team in the nation will be a tall task.
With the current spread jumping to 13.5 points, my lean is towards Clemson SU in a game that will be closer than most people think. Take Notre Dame and the 13.5 points now since there is a good chance that some late money on the Irish could drive that number down.