College Football Picks - Free Weekly ATS Predictions
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Earlier this season, Nevada upset Purdue as an 11-point underdog at home in early September, so this team is no stranger than playing this role and succeeding while doing so. Neither side is known for the offensive acumen. For this reason, I do not suspect San Diego State to be able to build a large enough lead to generate a cover here. The 'Tecs average 21.8 points per game (111th in the FBS) while giving up an impressive 14.1 points per contest (8th in the FBS). If San Diego State has an average day at the office, they will be nowhere close to covering. If offensive production exclusively is at the mean for SDSU, this would require the Aztecs to pitch a shutout to green up. That’s all a tall order to ask of any team regardless of opposition. Take the points.
This game has all the makings of a shootout written all over it, and in such an event, the wise and prudent move is to take the points. Sure, I respect Hawaii and their home-field advantage, but the Spartans quite frankly could give a hoot. After all, San Jose State has challenged tougher opponents this year, and they have also succeeded in hostile environs. This team will be coming motivated, not just looking to cover but to win outright. Be that as it may, I'll take the converted touchdown which gives us tremendous equity in what could be an outright upset.
Ole Miss has lost three games this season by one score or less, and it out-gained and out-rushed two of those opponents. In fact, the Rebels have out-gained five of their last seven opponents and out-rushed six of their previous seven foes. Also, they had last week off. Auburn, meanwhile, is perhaps a bit deflated, coming off a tough loss, and playing at home, where spreads are less amenable. They probably won't win the game, but we like the Rebs here plus the points.
Both teams are coming off big wins over ranked teams, and while TCU came up with the bigger upset, they are not the pick in this game. The Cowboys found balance in their last game on offense even though they have the nation's leading rusher in Hubbard. He will have another solid game as will Sanders, and the offense of the Cowboys will trump the defense of the Horned Frogs, and while this game will be close, OSU will win and cover the spread.
While I would be remiss to point out the back-door potential in junk-time, I do not see it coming to that in this game. Lafayette is all the more in danger of taking the Bobcats likely while Texas State will be bringing their A-Game. I expect Texas State to hang around in this game more than ULL would barter for and at the most, lose this game by three converted touchdowns. I’ll take the points here with Texas State.
The Favorite in this series is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Arkansas State has been the chalk in all of these scenarios. However, I expect that trend to change after this match. We’ll toss aside the points here to enhance our return and take Monroe to win this one outright. A much different team awaits Arkansas State than the club that got humiliated at Appalachian State two weeks ago. The Red Wolves won’t be able to rest on their laurels as they are in for a rude awakening against a ULM team that is sick and tired of being bullied by the Red Wolves. Warhawks on the Money Line is our call.
The Mustangs are the real-deal and will use this nationally-televised stage to showcase why they are the frontrunner for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. The line offered in this contest is based on previous results and not an accurate assessment of the two teams that are taking the field. According to ESPN's preseason Football Power Index, the Tigers were one of a few teams that were favored to win every game in the regular season. However, that prognostication was made before a snap was ever played. The wrong side is favored; we trust that SMU will win this one outright.
These teams have played two common opponents so far this season; LSU beat Florida and Mississippi State by a combined 37 points, while Auburn beat the Bulldogs but lost to the Gators. Also, while these two teams are close to even on defense Louisiana State owns the edge on offense. This game shouldn't be a blowout, but we're still giving the points with LSU for our free college football pick.
Missouri laid an egg last week, but in our eyes, that just makes them good candidates for a bounce-back effort this week. The Tigers are the better team here, playing on the road, where the spread isn't as prohibitive as it would be elsewhere. Also, Kentucky is playing a WR at QB, and while Bowden is dangerous, it leaves the 'Cats a bit one-dimensional on that side of the ball. We're giving the points with Mizzou for our free college football pick.
Appalachian State will stay unbeaten after this game. However, I do not see them winning this match by 25 points strictly because of the previously mentioned short week the Mountaineers have to work with. App State will not be looking past USA, but they have bigger fish to fry. Georgia Southern routed Appalachian State last year when the two met in Statesboro, and there is little doubt that the Mountaineers want to return the favor. I expect the Mountaineers to put this one to bed early and bring in the reserves, setting up USA to take advantage of a few junk-time scores and cover as a result.
I am not here to hard sell the Zips to you, it is not a pretty situation in Akron, but nevertheless, the points here are ludicrous. The Zips offense though scores on average 12.3 points per match (129th in the FBS), has broken 20-point threshold three times this season (one of which was against a reputable outfit in UAB). I suspect against an accommodating NIU defense that Akron will have favorable conditions to generate a few scores and as a result, come in under this extremely lofty number.
It would be ambitious to suggest that the Cougars may upset the Mustangs outright, but I certainly believe that UH will give SMU a good scare. This game, like Houston's other stints against WSU and the Green Wave, will be a back and forth affair that will likely be settled on the final drive. SMU will once again dig into its bag of tricks to escape as it did against Tulsa and TCU to keep their NY6 aspirations alive. However, Houston is going to make them sweat every step of the way.
Texas was given a scare in their last game, but they will not get one in this game. While the Longhorns obviously, have some issues on defense, their offense will more than make up for it. They will run the ball well, and Ehlinger will have a big game in the air even against a good TCU pass defense. This game will not be a blowout, but Texas will win handily and keep their Big 10 title hopes alive while sending TCU under .500.
This game has a shootout written all over it., as each team can light up the scoreboard, and I expect they both will participate in this game. Both of the Cowboys losses have been on the road, and back at home, they will not be as sloppy as in their last match where they coughed up the rock five times. Hubbard will have another big game, and OSU will get the win and cover handing Baylor their first loss of the season.
South Carolina is coming off that huge win over Georgia, but a letdown this week almost seems inevitable. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss, but we expect a bounce-back effort this week. So we're giving the points with the Gators here for our free college football pick.
When I look at this line, it truly stinks of a potential upset. After all, you have an undefeated, ranked team spotting a low quantity of points to an unranked opponent with a losing record; That looks like a trap. For those that are adventurous enough to play the Cougars on the Money Line at +205, I recommend splitting your bet with half of a unit on the ML and the other half with the points. Given how these games have often been settled on the last play, BYU could easily play Boise tough, but the Broncos could somehow manage to escape. Nevertheless, such a turn of events enables the Cougars to come in under the number. From my perspective, a field goal will likely decide the fate of this game regardless of who wins it.
Make no mistake about this one, this is not going to be a College Football Playoff battle, but that doesn't mean that there isn't value to be had. Though it may be the Owls' only triumph of the year, Rice will bring the Roadrunners "win streak" in this series to an end. The Owls will be triumphant in convincing fashion. I have Rice winning this match by double-digits. Swallow the points.
I would not be shocked by any means if the Eagles went onto win this game outright. If some were bold enough to take EMU on the Money Line on Saturday, I would not dissuade that venture. Nevertheless, the fact remains that since the upset potential in the game is quite significant, the amount of points offered makes the Eagles a true value wager, and that is how I am going to play this one. Regardless of who wins this game, it will not be settled by a more than a touchdown in either direction.
Each of the last seven meetings in the series between these two teams has been decided by less than the spread on this game. And playing at home means the line on LSU is probably inflated by three or four points. Florida may not win this game outright, but we'll take the Gators and the points for our free college football pick here.
Texas is a great team, but they are facing Hurts and a dangerous passing offense for OU with a pass defense that only ranks 125th in the nation. OU's defense is improved over last season, and while they will not shut the Longhorns down, they will not give up a ton of points. On the other side of the coin, Hurts and company will light up the scoreboard, and because of that, the Sooners will win this game and cover the spread avenging their loss to Texas last season in the Red River rivalry.