The behavior of the public signals huge overreaction as a direct effect of the Road Runners’ remarkable victory over Southern Mississippi, last Saturday. Outside of this outcome, the Road Runners do not own any more wins that warrant such a reaction. Alcorn State is the only other team the Road Runners have defeated this season. For UTSA, they are more likely the benefactors of teams taking them lightly as opposed to being any form of a viable threat. Rice will not approach this contest as a clash with a cupcake. Rice has won three of the previous four meetings between these two foes and the Owls are aware of fact they get this one at home. The Owls are desperate for a win and they know here and now they have a strong chance to earn that fleeting victory. Rice has looked like a pipsqueak all season long but they are 2-3 against the spread because they have been grossly undervalued as a result of their reputation combined with performance. This team has taken on the likes of WKU, Baylor and a clearly more prepared Southern Miss on the road. UTSA will no longer have the luxury of playing spoiler as the target is now freshly painted on their back against a team that has had their number. Rice with the points is the call.

The market opened at 19 points spotted to the Golden Hurricane and since then we have seen movements of 2.5 points further in the direction of Houston and away from Tulsa. In Over/Under markets, the Total Line is currently sitting at 72.5. The problem for Tulsa has always been their lack of defense despite boasting a traditionally powerful offense. The Golden Hurricane live and die by their offense and like to win games by outscoring opponents. This has largely worked for the most part against mid-major featherweights but in many instances they were trifled against teams of consequence. Nevertheless, rivalry games often cast aside any previous statistics. With regard to Navy’s achievements against the Cougars, it is safe to say Houston’s defense was certainly exposed last week as Navy was able to hang 46 points on the Cougs. What is frightening about this notion is the Mids are not a team often known for incinerating scoreboards. Simply put, if Navy can score 46 on Houston imagine what Tulsa can do if Houston does not do their homework on the Golden Hurricane. Mathematically it is simple. Rivalry game plus a potential shootout and a huge allotment of points equals tremendous value on Tulsa. The public is still enamored with the Cougars as they seem to be popular and sexy pick with the recent memories of Houston routing both Oklahoma this season and Florida State at the end of 2015. Regardless, Tulsa will enter this one with an opportunity to show the entire country on national television why they are 4-1.

To no surprise, much of the public fancy the Crimson Tide as they are willing to spot double-digit points to the hosts Tennessee as 60% of the consensus are with the Crimson Tide against the spread. This market has moved by 2.5 points as a result of heavy action on Bama. In Over/Under markets, the Total Line is currently resting at 57 despite opening at 60 at the off, reflecting a 3 point drop and heavy action on the under. Is there ever a better time to take Tennessee? The Volunteers are in perfect position as Tennessee enters on a loss, while the Tide continue to roll. The Crimson Tide have made it all academic and recreational at this point, as they have pummeled opponents with ease with the exception of Ole Miss. Alabama has not lost a game dating back to September 2015 and since then they have marked off eighteen in a row while capturing some serious hardware and trophies in the process. Though Alabama looks like the typical Crimson Tide we are used to seeing, everything is out the window in a rivalry game as historic as the Third Saturday of October. Throw the numbers out, this is one of Tennessee’s best teams in recent years and now we get them at home with nearly two touchdowns to protect. Banking on Alabama in a game of this magnitude is extraordinarily dangerous given the fact Tennessee is a team that has put away their arch rivals week-in and week-out this year and they did so coming from behind. In fact on two separate occasions, the Vols erased 21-point deficits and they trailed by over 10 points in every game they won this season. Tennessee is a dangerous football team and given the fact this one may be an offense oriented affair in lieu of some of the defensive struggles for both teams as of late, we will go ahead and take the over while we are at it.

The early money at BetOnline has been on the Tigers after opening as 17-point favorites, but there is something about NC State this year that makes me believe it can keep this a two touchdown game. The road team has done a good job at covering in this matchup and last week’s win over Notre Dame throws some serious momentum the Wolfpacks’ way.

This may be a bold play going against the current 65 percent consensus, but I am going to take the 17.5 points and go with NC State to throw a minor scare into the No. 3 team in the nation this Saturday afternoon in Clemson.

 Duke is not a team to sleep on, even if their record seems all the more uninspiring. Duke took care of business against Notre Dame and we continue to bring thus up because this bolstered Duke’s rep as a team that will shock any outfit that dare cast them aside as a cupcake or write them off entirely. Despite a loss to Clemson on the road and the stock in Louisville falling, Louisville is still spotting a ridiculous amount of points. The public has followed suit and chased these points vigorously as heavy steam continues to roll in on this team even when they come in off a loss and a bye, a prime angle to lay a team like Louisville. Bottom line, Louisville can win this game big and still fail to cover. Nevertheless, Duke is more than capable of keeping this fixture well within range and these Blue Devils can lose by 28 and still get a win for any taker. The play is simple given the amount of points offered here. While Lamar Jackson may be the unanimous favorite for Heisman that by no means suggest that Duke has no chance in this game as Louisville’s defense was certainly exposed at Death Valley.

I have been riding the Tar Heels the past few weeks both on the spread and the total line and cashing in as part of my ACC “best bet” of the week. After last week’s SU win I am not about to stop now at a very favorable betting spread against a Virginia Tech team that is slightly overrated in my book.

The Hokies come into this conference clash with one of their best teams in years, but I just cannot see Virginia Tech keeping pace with the Tar Heels on the scoreboard for all four quarters.

Everyone and their mother is on the Rockets against the spread, spotting the full allotment of points to the home host Eastern Michigan as 99% of the public are in on Toledo. In Over/Under markets, we see the Total Line currently sitting at 68 despite opening at 65.5 in the initial offering. Heavy action on the Over has pushed this line up 2.5 points in selected markets. Seemingly takers do not seem impressed with EMU’s record and their achievements so far this season. Toledo’s dominance and the 2015 outcome is all that seems to bear any significance. Now, the Rockets seem positioned by public perspective to once again feast on the Eagles. However, we will have to lay that perspective. Eastern Michigan remains undefeated at home this season and they have also been proven to be highly undervalued in light of their established reputation. Things are changing in Ypsilanti and knocking off a conference bully would be a great way for EMU to show how drastically and dramatically the tide is turning. EMU will not enter this contest afraid of Toledo, if anything they will hang around and maybe just maybe sting the Rockets when it matters most. The amount of points here combined with a huge set-up for EMU to cover yet again is worth banking on. Expect this one to be a four quarter game.

In the early going, we have seen 80% of the public jump on the Irish. The Irish initially opened as a 1.5 point favorite and now have since become a 2 point pooch, signifying early action on the Wolf Pack. In Over/Under markets, the price is currently resting at 68.5. Notre Dame is one of the most recognized names and programs in the history of college football. Without a doubt, the name of Notre Dame in itself is likened to that of a blue-chip stock. Takers have expectations and when you place a team like Notre Dame with heightened hype season-in and season-out by virtue of their namesake, NC State seems like a lock for them. When you add points in to the equation, it seems ever more alluring. North Carolina State’s stadium is known as one of the most difficult and perilous environments to play in all of college football and this does not heighten the optimism of the Irish who already lost on the road at Texas this year. Notre Dame lives and dies by their offense and teams of this nature are a very volatile and risky play especially when they are going to a place where it will be loud, noisy and very likely quite intimidating. North Carolina State was offered at this price for a reason and it seems the sharps are in on it, we hope to be as well.

So far we have seen 76% of the consensus fancy the Terrapins. The Nittany Lions initially opened as a 2 point favorite and now have become a home pooch, signifying heavy action on the Terrapins. In Over/Under markets, the Total Line is currently at 58 despite its initial onset of 56 showcasing a heavy line on the Over by the general public. Likely what we are seeing here is an overreaction on Maryland after they smoked Purdue as an eleven-point favorite. However, the difference of quality in opposition season-to-date will be the difference maker for both teams in this contest. Maryland has beat up on chumps while Penn State has already ran a bit of a gauntlet. The Nittany Lions were also able to do this with one hand tied behind their back due to their injury situation. The difference between a battle-tested team and an outfit that creams creampuffs will be showcased Saturday. Maryland is simply not a team that should be giving away any points to Penn State in Happy Valley, regardless of wins and losses. Penn State will likely expose the Terps for their padded schedule so far.

So far, a heavy amount of the general public are taking the Broncos and spotting significant points to the hosts New Mexico, as 82% are on Boise State. Additionally, the Over/Under market currently rests at 61 despite some markets offering 60.5. Boise State is appearing more and more like the Boise State that defeated Arizona, TCU and Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowls of year past. When events like this materialize, the price to take back the Broncos becomes all the more inflated. Nevertheless, in the most recent clash between the two, we highlighted that New Mexico owns a win over Boise State. Let us also highlight that the Lobos were at 31-point road underdog in this contest and they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in 2015. While to many this may seem like a thing of the past, we feel it is something that cannot be ignored. The Lobos will enter this fixture knowing they can beat this team and furthermore they have home cooking to feast on as well. Boise State when they get on a roll seem like a Mack Truck that cannot be stopped. Nevertheless, this one is served up to be a quintessential trap game with the Lobos lying in wait like a nail in the middle of the road to deflate the Broncos. If the Lobos do not pull off the win, there is more than enough points for New Mexico to generate a cover as they will likely be able to keep this one close.

In the early going we have seen this line move half of a point in favor of the Hilltoppers, signaling that the public are going in on WKU and ready to spot points to the home dog Louisiana Tech. We are attacking this one from the angle of home field advantage. Louisiana Tech is 2-0 at home this season, as all three losses came away from Ruston. The Bulldogs were competitive in every game they lost this season, so the price here clearly does not reflect the team we are taking back. Had a few things gone in the favor of LA Tech perhaps we would be talking about a heavy home favorite that may been undefeated. This game looks like a trap to any Western Kentucky taker. The Hilltoppers as mentioned have been stymied against any team that is the least formidable so far this season and now they have to take on a football club that has found ways to be competitive even when their talent matriculated to the NFL. The Bulldogs may win this one outright.

Early indications signify that the public is keen to hop all over the Broncos and spot the points in light of their electric start to the 2016-17 season. Nevertheless, we will have to go the other way with this one by virtue of the fact, we get a home pooch in a potent rivalry game. These kinds of match-ups are the most unpredictable, so we will go with there is the most upside. The Broncos’ stock is on the rise while Central Michigan stock is falling. If Central Michigan had won last week, perhaps they would be spotting the points. In spite of recent achievements, the book is astute to the fact this game can go in any direction given the robust energy in this statewide feud. Seemingly with Western Michigan’s recent successes, this game seems like a give-me for the Broncos in light of their dominance in hanging on to the Victory Cannon as of late. However, last year’s game typified the ferocity of the acrimony, as Western Michigan escaped Central Michigan at home in a shootout victory where 80 points were scored between both teams. With many bettors sweet on the Broncos, the Chips are in position to catch the Broncos off guard, just like they did against Oklahoma State. With all the hype surrounding Western Michigan thanks to their overachievement, the Broncos are in prime position for a let-down, a rivalry game of this nature is set to be the perfect stage.

75% of the consensus are in on the Owls and ready to spot points to the home dog Florida International. We have seen this line move by two points since its open in spread markets, while the point has moved one point in favor of the Over. In Over/Under markets as the Total Line sits at 53 despite an initial opening of 52. This is one of the most crazy rivalry contests in all the NCAA at this point. When reviewing the trends of this contest, it is safe to assess and assume the home team and the underdog have the edge in this series as they have dominated as of late. Typically there is not a lot of sharp action in games of this nature, be that they are out of the public forum for the most part and generally maintain little attention compared to a Power Five primetime game between ranked opponents. Generally the markets have not been anywhere close to the results and outcomes between both parties. Nothing speaks more about this than FIU as a 6.5 point dog cruising to a 28 point win in 2014. FAU in 2015 was a 2 point pooch and they won by 14. With most of the public once again hot on a road favorite that is 1-3 and spotting a touchdown while they are at it, we will back the underdog FIU as home dogs have a tendency to make the most of this series.

An astonishing 91% of the public are eager to spot points to the home pooch South Carolina. We have seen this line move by two points since its open. Similar revelations have emerged in Over/Under markets as the Total Line sits at 48 despite opening at 45.5. The Aggies are in position to fall prey to a trap scenario. The situation sets up perfectly where in countless times historically, a team heavily favored against a weaker competitor by public standards hangs around to cause trouble for the visiting favorite. South Carolina has a knack for raising terror against teams that are supposed to blow them out. Look no further than the dogfight Clemson found themselves engaged in against USC in 2015 when the Cocks were heavy home dogs. The heavy lean on the Aggies suggests the consensus is failing to take this in to consideration. Texas A&M may be found guilty of looking past this game for a looming collision with currently undefeated Tennessee, who are due to pay the Aggies a visit on October 8th South Carolina loves to play defense and Texas A&M will likely find themselves in a game where the Gamecocks dictate even if they do end up losing. Way too many points to give for a team that is all the more susceptible to an overreaction after an impressive win last week against a ranked Arkansas team.

The Tar Heels started the season nationally ranked and I still think they are one of the top 25 teams in the nation. Florida State also knows how to put points on the board, but its defense is going to be its Achilles heel to making a serious run back to the top of the rankings after climbing all the way to No. 2 before the loss to Louisville.

I am taking the 11 points on BetOnline’s current board and taking North Carolina to cover on the road. This one should be a barnburner that goes right down to the final possession.

An astounding 92% of the consensus fancy backing the Gators against the spread and spotting points to the home underdog Vanderbilt. In Over/Under markets, 85% are in on the Over as the Total Line sits at 41 despite opening at 41.5. Vanderbilt has been a pest for the Gators as of late. Vanderbilt owns a 34-17 road win over Florida in 2013 and could have easily won again last year in The Swamp, when they fell to the Gators 9-7 on what was a turbulent game for both sides that was defense oriented. Vanderbilt has been undervalued in this series, they have covered two of the last three times and this year’s team is clearly far better than the 2015 roster. Case and point, the Commodores fell to Western Kentucky at home last year, this year on the road they fostered a far differing outcome. Additionally, the effects of the disparaging loss the Gators suffered last Saturday have yet to be seen. The motivation level may be at a low and they may enter this one flat after enduring a very difficult loss. On the contrary, the Commodores are buzzing high after last week’s overtime road win and now they get a chance to take down a traditional dominant force in their division at home. With the points we have seen combined with a heavy lean, an overlay is very much a likely situation to take shape here.

In the early going we have seen 63% of the public money come in on the Cougars spotting the points to the road dog Toledo Rockets. Currently the Total Line sits at 52 with no tangible action to report on. We are going to fade public opinion and go in on the Rockets. Toledo is not a run of the mill Group of Five football club. This is an outfit that won 10 games in 2015 matched by tangible experience in winning within hostile road environs. In 2015, Toledo took down the highly-regarded Arkansas Razorbacks in both team’s season opener. Furthermore, we need not look any further than what transpired just a few weeks ago in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Heavy steamed rolled in on the marginally favored Arkansas State and contrary to popular opinion, the Rockets lit up Arkansas State as they had done in each of their recent encounters. Toledo will treat BYU no differently than they do any other team. It’s all business for the Rockets and they do not care who you are or where you play. Some can argue that BYU is due for a win, but on the contrary they may enter flat after suffering demoralizing defeat after defeat. Regardless of how they lost, the Cougars are still on a skid and that in itself is worth laying. We will fade the public and take the road points as the Rockets enter this fixture in almost identical regard as they did in Week One against Ark State. History has a funny way of repeating itself.

I am a bit concerned about such a deep spread for a conference game, but there are two big things in Houston’s favor to get another win both SU and ATS this Thursday night. The first is the large disparity in the overall talent level in both of these teams and the other is the revenge factor given last season’s stunning road loss to the Huskies.

Houston is not only eyeing an AAC title this season, but a possible spot in the College Football Playoff so do not expect any kind of letdown this Thursday night.

An outstanding 99% of the consensus are willing to spot the points to the Falcons and take the home favorites Memphis. For Over/Under markets, the line currently sits at 68.5, despite opening at 61 showcasing that this market has moved by a touchdown and half a point. Traditionally in a situation where we see such heavy leans, a contrarian angle can often be useful and profitable. When nearly all the public are one team, there is a great chance that team is set up for a letdown. Bottom line, Bowling Green’s record is a bit deceiving. Middle Tennessee State is a quality outfit that is a true dark horse for the Conference USA. Middle Tennessee State’s performance against Bowling Green directly reflects that. Let us not forget that Memphis has not beaten anyone of consequence yet this year and this will be a step up in competition. While a shootout may in fact be on the horizon, the stark line movements in Over/Under markets compels us to go under as each team will be entering this contest without the critical playmakers they had at quarterback a year ago when they met at Bowling Green.

Nearly all are in on the Cards, 95% of the public are with the U of L in the early going against the spread. For Over/Under markets, we have seen some heavy action come in on the over as the market has moved two points where the line currently sits at 74.5. This market is all about the psychological tactics books use to sway public perception. Louisville’s stock is in another stratosphere after their 62-20 thrashing of #2 Florida State. A steady stream of hype and fanfare was due to follow suit. Suddenly, Lamar Jackson’s five touchdowns has positioned him as the current top candidate for Heisman honors and many analysts have begun naming Louisville a College Football Playoff contender. All this off of one game, even if it is an impressive result. On the contrary, the Thundering Herd were humiliated home last week by a heavy underdog in the Akron Zips where the Thundering Herd defense gave up 65 points to a team they were favored by more than two touchdowns against. Results of this magnitude is likely to create this type of an offering. Had the variables been assorted differently, Louisville may have all likely been a slight or marginal favorite as opposed to a heavy favorite against a historically formidable mid-major club. Bottom line, Louisville is a hot play right now and Marshall is in sell mode which affords us the opportunity to take back a plethora of points with a team renowned for their home field advantage and methodical offense.