Temple was the better team last season in its run to the AAC Championship, but the gap between the two teams this year swings heavily towards the Bulls. While I do not see South Florida losing this game SU, I do believe the final score will be closer than the current 20.5-point spread given the recent history between these two conference rivals.

The matchup all comes down to Clemson’s ability to contain Lamar Jackson. The Tigers are still going to need some production from their offense, but the spotlight in this ACC showdown will be shining the brightest on a defense that has only allowed nine points in two games. Even if Jackson does go off on Saturday night, I still like Clemson’s chances to win this game by more than the current three-point spread as one of the true college football powers this season.

Some of the superlatives circling around both these teams makes Wyoming a very sexy pick in this situation. First off location of venue. Secondly, the narrative that Oregon almost blew a 21-point lead in Lincoln, last week. Lastly, Oregon’s suspect defense going up against a prototypical quarterback in Wyoming gunslinger Josh Allen. All three of these variables sell the Cowboys immensely in this market. From what we have seen in the early going, 67% of the public like Oregon in this scenario. However, we have seen line movements depict the opposite. Some of the sharpest sports books in the industry have priced the Ducks a point higher than the current market suggests, showcasing the fact that these books are taking a position on this contest. Oregon remains one college football’s high-profile teams even if they took a giant leap backwards in 2016. Despite, Oregon failing to cover in follow-ups to straight-up wins, some are of the opinion that those statistics are out the window here. The fact remains, Wyoming will have a very difficult time stopping Oregon’s offense. The question is whether their offense can actually keep up with the Quack Attack.

The Bulldogs are without question looking to toss their hat in the ring as a potential contender for the West. Even if the Dogs of Starkville are unable to upend Alabama, this is a team looking to return to the 10-win mark as it achieved in 2014. In 2016, Mississippi State took a step back and finished 6-7 capped off with a bowl win against Miami of Ohio in the St. Petersburg Bowl. Overall, Miss State has won six of their last eight and this has without question reinvigorated the fan base. The cowbells will be rocking once again and home field advantage will pivotal in this contest. Given recent tendencies combined with the location of venue, there is an abundance of value on the Bulldogs here.

In the early going we have seen an extraordinary lean on the Broncos as this market has moved by a touchdown since its open. An astounding 100% of the consensus love Western Michigan in this market against the spread. Last year, the story of the season perhaps was the tale of the Western Michigan Broncos who ran the table and earned a bid to the Cotton Bowl Classic before they were finally defeated for the first time in 2016. In addition to Western Michigan, many eyes were focused on San Diego State, Troy State, Appalachian State, and South Florida to name a few mid-major Group of Five programs that caught national attention. The Vandals should have been amongst those listed but they very quietly went 9-4 and achieved unprecedented success since re-joining the FBS. Most of the talent responsible for this fabled campaign along with the coaching staff that led the way are back in 2017. This is a team that very simply should not be spotted this quantity of points. Though Western Michigan has certainly earned its stripes with who they played in the past two weeks, Idaho is a very formidable football team. Excellent value on the Vandals.

Early action on Florida by public money has been revealed through a half-point line movement on the Gators. The market opened at -4.5, with the number moving up to 5 just after. The emotions will be through the ceiling in this one. The Gators will be curating the hosting duties after their home state weathered the scourge of Hurricane Irma. For many within the state, the Gators serve as a distraction. The Orange and Blue know this and were even reluctant to cancel their game last Saturday because of this but of course erred on the side of safety. The atmosphere will be charged and some of those key players that were suspended will likely be back on board for this rivalry game. The Gators will assert their will in this contest and re-establish dominance in this rivalry series. Tennessee upgrades their quality of competition in this fixture and thus the same theatrics that helped them win two weeks ago are out the window.

In the early going we have seen 88% like the Bruins against the spread in this situation. However, this price is accompanied by a pleasant tag as we have seen the Bruins offered spotting a point less in some markets. There are many question marks about UCLA but the biggest inquiry in this affair should be made into Memphis’ defense. Regardless of the mystery surrounding the Bruins’ credibility as a contender, it can be ascertained that their offense is one that can score at will when all cylinders are firing. Memphis is a team that lives and dies by its offensive operations. Nevertheless, UL Monroe provided a blueprint to curtail Riley Ferguson. The Bruins will certainly take advantage of this data. Despite this contest being in the Tigers’ backyard, they will be outclassed in this one. Any chance of a UCLA hangover from the Texas A&M comeback has long since been put to sleep. Rosen should have a field day against Memphis.

Both of these teams have not lived up to early expectations through the first few weeks of the new season, but head-to-head you would have to give the edge to Temple as the all-around more talented team. The problem with going with the Owls on Friday night is the two-touchdown spread. They might need another game or two to get all three phases of the game moving in the right direction which could allow UMass to keep things closer than expected all night long.

I do believe there is value in a play on the UNDER in this game against a total line that is set just a bit too high in my book.

The Bulls have had an enormous of hype surrounding them into the 2017 season. So far much of the public has bought in, as this line has moved by four points since its open. On the contrary, 70% of the consensus like the Illini. South Florida has been classed by some analysts as the top choice to be the Group of Five representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game. However, the Bulls failed to win the American Athletic Conference in 2016. This turn of events was defined as the best team ‘forgetting’ that it was supposed to win the conference. Nevertheless, the USF defense was responsible for its plight. The Bulls offense is the engine that drives USF but they got away with giving up around 40 points in three of their last six wins against FBS teams. USF has yet to see any opponent of consequence this year and when they have, the games were too close for comfort. USF’s stock has likely driven to this a number that is hyper-inflated, setting up a great value play on a Power Five constituent. A trip to Tampa in a NFL stadium under Friday night lights serves as a prime stage for the Oskie Wow-Wows to state their case for all of America.

This game has all the makings of a shootout and thus points are always an optimal choice when dealing with a contest of this nature. The fact remains, Washington State is a team that lives and dies by its offense. The Cougars’ strategy is simple: let their passing attack blow the competition off the field in a game of catch-up. However, such tactics can be disastrous when met by an opponent that can proliferate offense at a similar rate and pace or by an antagonist that plays sound defense. Boise State has the capability to do both. In a rare occasion, we have an opportunity to score Boise State with a hearty helping of points against a team it knows how to beat. Boise dealt with Falk in 2016 and they found ways to overcome him. With all this taken into consideration, there is a very good chance that the Broncos are extremely undervalued here.

What is most key here is not so much the Aggie victory of 2016 but their ability to hang around with Arizona State in its opening game last week. New Mexico State as a 26.5-point pup was able to stay within a touchdown of the Sun Devils, ultimately falling by a score of 37-31. However, Arizona State’s defense is virtually non-existent so this is not much of an achievement. Nevertheless, with the apparent edge resting with NMSU along with being underpriced against ASU, it looks as if the Aggies were grossly undervalued at the initial offering against New Mexico. However, it is likely the opposite. New Mexico was caught napping last year when they went into Las Cruces and they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for New Mexico State in what will certainly be a game circled on their calendar. The Lobos made quick work of ACU at home last week but failed to cover a 34-point line in the process. With this narrative further fueling the prospect of NMSU being undervalued, this is the ideal situation to fade the public and likely take advantage of short-priced favorite primed to run wild on their most hated foe.

If anything could be ascertained from UCLA’s performance against Texas A&M, it can be derived that the Bruins are a team that cannot be trusted spotting significant quantities of points. Very simply, the Bruins are very fortunate that they were able to live to tell about their encounter with the Aggies. A&M was more responsible for the UCLA victory than perhaps the Bruins themselves. Quite frequently after teams come in off comeback wins of this magnitude, they are prone for huge let-downs by virtue of the emotional toll and fatigue accrued as a result. UCLA is set up perfectly for this scenario to unfold with the narrative that they are at home against a weaker opponent by popular perspective. However, this is not Hawaii’s first rodeo. To kick off the 2017 season, the Rainbow Warriors traveled 5,000 miles to Hadley, Massachusetts where they came in as a marginal road pooch against the lowly UMass Minutemen. Despite trailing most of the game, the travels boded tremendous rewards for the Warriors as they were able to escape with a victory. Do not expect Hawaii to enter this venue and lie down for UCLA. Outside of the miraculous win against the Aggies, UCLA had lost five of their previous six. In four of these five defeats, the Bruins gave up 36 points or more on defense. Against A&M, the Bruins gave up 44 points. Look for Hawaii’s offense to take advantage of their porous secondary and create a cover for Rainbow Warriors takers.

With the stock being so low on Massachusetts, this could be the perfect time to buy them back at an enhanced price. The number next to Old Dominion is no mistake as it is without question their recent successes has been taken into account. The fact remains though Old Dominion won by two touchdowns against Albany, statistically they were actually outplayed. Whether this is shaking off pre-season rust or taking an opponent lightly is yet to be determined. The fact remains that UMass is hungry for a win and looking to get off the snide. The Minutemen have produced let-downs as a favorite but now they come in as a home dog, a much more favorable position. What this creates is a buy-low and sell-high situation on both teams and we will go ahead and take advantage while we can.

The ebb and flows of betting is one that can never cease to amaze. Only a week ago, the Eagles were a very sexy selection against Charlotte. This week, the Eagles are in sell mode even after they successfully covered against Charlotte as a double-digit favorite. On the contrary, Rutgers looked like the same team we saw in 2016 that yielded some abysmal results. In 2016, Rutgers was shut out on four occasions and lost by margins of 39, 49, 58, and 78 in these four shutout defeats. Now this team is spotting points to a football team that is likely being undervalued by virtue of conference affiliation more than any other reason. A presiding opinion is that the Eagles hailing from the MAC will not be able to contend with the likes of a Power Five team such as Rutgers who comes from the Big Ten. While the Big Ten may indeed be one of the nation’s best conferences, Rutgers has not made a convincing argument that it belongs there. Eastern Michigan will enter this game with a chip on its shoulder due to the lack of respect it has been shown. Place the Scarlet Knights on upset alert.

Iowa’s defense has to feel extraordinarily confident after what it had achieved on opening weekend. Wyoming features a NFL prospect quarterback that has positioned on some mock draft boards that has him listed as high as a top-five selection. However, Josh Allen looked confused and imperiled against the Hawkeye defense as they held him to 174 yards through the air while picking him off two times. While Iowa State has the potential to be a very effective and prolific offense in its own right, it will be tested vigorously. The Cyclones averaged 421.6 yards of total offense while scoring 27.7 points per game. Against Iowa last year, they were held to just a field goal and 291 yards. Additionally, if Iowa State wants to have any chance at competing in this contest their defense will have to tune up. Last year, the Clones gave away 31.3 points per game and as a result they finished 3-9. While home field advantage of this market, Iowa will pay no mind to where this game is taking place. Once again, the Black and Yellow should retain the Cy-Hawk trophy will little opposition from the Cyclones.

East Carolina appears to be destined for another long season given its overall play last week against a D-IAA opponent, while West Virginia will be looking to take out its frustration from last week’s tough loss against a team it should be able handle in a decisive manner. The current spread at BetOnline is a bit larger than expected at 24 points, but I still have the Mountaineers winning this game both SU and ATS.

Neither of these teams looked like they were ready to start the new season as heavy favorites last Saturday, but the difference was Louisville’s ability to find a way to win. It should be a different story this week with the Cardinals taking a big step forward while North Carolina continues to search for ways to lessen the impact of Trubisky’s departure. Lay the 9.5 points on the road with Louisville getting the win both SU and ATS.

Laying chalk is not typically our cup of tea but in this case, it may very well be warranted. In the early going we have seen this line diminish by 3.5 points in some markets to where it stands now. Consensus numbers argue otherwise as 66% like the Dores in the current situation from an action perspective. However, in this instance it may be more compelling to side with the public. Overall, Vanderbilt is not a team many are accustomed to spotting points with. The proposition of such an event against a team with an offense that can be incendiary is an even greater temptation to take the points, given the fact Middle Tennessee State is known as a tough team to beat at home. However, Middle Tennessee State is as good as any team in producing let-downs. As a 19-point home favorite last year against the UTSA Road Runners, the Blue Raiders would be utterly embarrassed when they fell by a margin of 20 points. The same situation can materialize here against a far better team.

Since this market has opened, there has been heavy action on the Trojans. Broncos’ backers have been afforded an extra field goal as a result of the money pouring in on USC. While Western Michigan may not feature some of the talent they had in their storied 2016 campaign or the coach at the helm who led the way, Western Michigan still has plenty of weapons. Most notably, the Broncos feature a dynamic duo of running backs that have been a consistent threat for the preceding seasons. Their names: Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin. A heavy dose of the two will be instrumental in keeping Darnold off the field and creates the prospect of Western Michigan hanging around longer in this game than expected. With USC favored by many to be a College Football Playoff and potential National Championship contender, the price to take action on the Men of Troy is bound to be ludicrous. We will take advantage while we can.

Since the open of this market, there has been steady steam rolling on the Broncos. Despite Boise State being prone to subjecting takers to a hidden premium for taking action on them by virtue of their namesake coupled with perceived home field advantage, the consensus is quite keen to back the Broncos. Analytics suggest that this could be a very risky move. In addition, Troy State returns a gunslinger at quarterback in Brandon Slivers and a workhorse at running back in Jordan Chunn. Given the fact it is the opening game of the year, the Boise defense may have some cobwebs to shake out against some very talented competitors. As a result, the number here offers tremendous value combined with the fact it is likely inflated to begin with.