Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies Odds & Spread Pick

Date: 
October 10, 5:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
UF -5/A&M +5
Total: 
57.5

Last week, I delivered an easy winner by backing the Georgia Bulldogs -7 in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. The Bulldogs dominated Auburn in every facet of the game in a 26-7 blowout between the hedges. This week I want to turn our focus back to the SEC and another prime betting opportunity when the 4th ranked Florida Gators travel into College Station to battle Jimbo Fisher’s no. 21 Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. The Aggies are fresh on the heels of two straight questionable performances including a 52-24 loss to Alabama last week. While many would expect a bounce back performance, let me explain why you should be betting the chalk for the 2nd straight week in the SEC!

The Gators moved to 2-0 SU last week by dismantling the South Carolina Gamecocks 38-24. The final score looked more favorable for South Carolina but Florida controlled the game for a full 60 minutes of play. Through the first two opening games that resulted in wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina, the Gators have some momentum rolling on the offensive side of the ball where they have compiled 89 points through 2 games which ranks 4th in the FBS in scoring offense. More importantly than the stats, the Gators provide serious problems for Texas A&M stylistically this week as their strengths align perfectly with the Aggies weaknesses.

Aggies offense remains inconsistent

The main problem that Texas A&M cannot get away from is the inconsistency on the offensive side of the football. The Aggies struggled by scoring just 17 points in the opener against Vanderbilt and they struggled to finish drives in the loss to Alabama last week. On the stat sheet, QB Kellen Mond had a solid outing by completing 25 of 44 passing for 318 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick. However, those stats are misleading because there were more opportunities left on the field. Mond’s biggest issue throughout his career has been his passing efficiency and he continues to trend at a 58% rate this season.

The Aggies are designed to be a run-first offense. Mond has strong rushing capabilities and running back Isaiah Spiller has big play potential in the backfield. The problem with the Aggies run-first philosophy is that the offensive line is inferior to many of the defenses they face in the conference. Despite facing two threatening rushing opponents, the Gators run defense has been solid in each game this season. If they can stymie the run again on Saturday, the Aggies passing offense will be put into stressful throwing situations with a mediocre passing quarterback behind center.

TE Kyle Pitts is the ultimate mismatch

Florida TE Kyle Pitts exploded in the opener by catching 8 passes for 170 yards and 4 touchdowns. Pitts has publicly made a declaration to be the nation’s best tight end and he delivered another strong performance last week by catching two 1st-half touchdowns against the Gamecocks. While the junior’s stat-line was not as impressive this week (4-57-2), Pitts is the perfect blend of size and speed that provides epic mismatches for opposing defenders. Corners are not big enough to defend his vertical and everyone has trouble defending his speed. Head Coach Dan Mullen has done a great job of exploiting defenses with Pitts but we should also give credit to the Gators offense in general. QB Kyle Trask is an emerging star that completes a high percentage of throws and will have the opportunity to take aim at an Aggies defense that was just shredded by Alabama’s Mac Jones. If Trask can get the same looks that Alabama got last week against this Texas A&M defense, the Gators will have another huge scoring afternoon.

Florida vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends

  • Florida is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games
  • Florida has hit the “over” in 5 of the last 6 games
  • Texas A&M is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Texas A&M has hit the “under in 5 of the last 6 games
  • Florida and Texas A&M have only met 4 prior times in history and have split those games at 2-2. The last meeting took place in 2017 and resulted in a 19-17 win in favor of the Aggies

Florida vs. Texas A&M Prediction

I really like how this Florida offense operates. They do not make many mistakes and they take advantage of the mismatches which should be open all night. Trust Florida here!</p>
 
Free Pick: 
Take Florida -5
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