Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners Best Bet: Cotton Bowl Odds & Picks

Date: 
December 30, 8:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
UF -3/OU +3
Total: 
70

The reigning Big 12 Champions and the 6th ranked Oklahoma Sooners will meet the no. 7 Florida Gators in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium on Wednesday, December 30th. The Sooners wrapped up their season with a hard-fought 27-21 victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game to close out the season with seven straight wins. Despite the late-season surge, this will be the 1st year that Head Coach Lincoln Riley and the Sooners failed to make the College Football Playoffs. While all three prior trips to the playoffs have been early exits, the Sooners and Riley will be looking to score their first postseason victory when they meet the Gators at the prestigious Cotton Bowl.

For Florida, it was an extremely successful season in Dan Mullen's 3rd year in the Swamp. The Gators took down the SEC East for the first time since 2016 and stood toe to toe with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game despite a 52-46 defeat. The Gators also produced a Heisman Trophy finalist in QB Kyle Trask who had a huge breakout 2020 campaign with 4,125 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Despite finishing the season with two straight losses to LSU and Alabama, Florida exceeded most preseason expectations and could put a final stamp on the 2020 campaign as they seek their 3rd straight bowl victory under Dan Mullen.

Florida vs. Oklahoma Betting Analysis

At first glance, the Gators appear to be the better football team and the rightful favorite. Florida has the size and strength to hold their ground in the trenches combined with a far more potent offensive attack. At the same time, Oklahoma is on the heels of 7 straight wins and will have the opportunity to attack a vulnerable Florida defense. The Gators defense has been a liability this season, allowing over 400 total yards per game. While Oklahoma's offense has not produced the elite level production that we have come to expect, it's still hard to trust Florida's defense by any stretch of the imagination.

Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler is a high percentage passer, and the Sooners have a plethora of running backs that should be able to have success between the tackles. With that being said, I still question if Oklahoma has enough firepower to beat this Gators team? As stated earlier, Trask is having an incredible season throwing the football, which cannot be undermined. Perhaps the biggest concern for Florida will be the loss of TE Kyle Pitts. In my opinion, Pitts is the best TE in the country by a wide margin, and he elected to opt-out of the Cotton Bowl in preparation for the NFL. The Gators feared leading WR Kadarius Toney would also opt-out, but it appears Toney will compete as he has been practicing all week. Toney has a chance to become the first Florida WR to reach 1,000 yards receiving since Taylor Jacobs in 2002. With Pitts opting out, Toney will need to step-up in a big way as the main target for the Gators' passing attack.

Oklahoma 1-5 SU in the last 6 bowl games

It is no secret that Oklahoma has struggled in recent years in the postseason. Despite 3 College Football Playoff appearances under Riley, the Sooners are 0-3 SU in those postseason match-ups. Oklahoma's postseason struggles have not started with Riley but rather continued. The Sooners are just 1-5 SU in the last six postseason appearances and have been mostly embarrassed in the majority of those games. When I look at this Sooners' football team, I don't see anything that would lead me to believe a trend reversal is imminent. The Sooners' offense has been slightly above-average against mediocre defenses, and the football team has just one quality win this season against Oklahoma State. I believe Florida is battle-tested and has the far superior offense in this match-up, which is going to create an extreme uphill challenge for the Sooners. When the final whistle sounds, I expect Oklahoma's postseason winless streak under Riley will continue.

Florida vs. Oklahoma Betting Trends

  • Florida is 18-2 SU in the last 20 games as the betting favorite.
  • Florida is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games.
  • Florida is 9-6-1 ATS in the last 16 games as the betting favorite.
  • Florida has hit the "over" in 9 of the last 13 games.
  • Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games.
  • Oklahoma is 7-0 SU in the last seven games.
  • Oklahoma has hit the "under" in four of the last five games.
  • Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS as the betting underdog.
  • Oklahoma has hit the "under" in 8 of the last 11 games against SEC opponents.

Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners Pick 12/30/20

Free Pick: 
Take the Florida Gators -3
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