Florida Gators vs. Missouri Tigers Week 12 Picks

November 16, 12:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Gators -6.5

Since joining the SEC back in 2012, Missouri holds the lead in the series with Florida, winning four of seven meetings straight up, going 5-2 against the spread in the process. But the Tigers are in a bad way, heading into Saturday's game with the Gators in Columbia. How are we playing this one with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

Week 12's college football betting odds opened Florida as a seven-point road favorite for this game, with an over/under of right around 49. Early betting action then dipped the Gators to -6.5 and the total to 48.

Gators vs. Tigers Set-Up

Florida is 8-2 on the season, ranked No. 11 in this week's AP poll, after vanquishing Vanderbilt last Saturday 56-0. The Gators didn't score until the first play of the second quarter and only led the Commodores 14-0 at the half. But they scored touchdowns on their first two possessions of the second half, then returned a fumble 80 yards for another score to break away, on their way to the win and the cover as 27-point favorites.

For the game, Florida out-gained Vandy 560-128, although we should point out the Commodores were playing with a quarterback making his first career start.

Two weeks ago, the Gators lost to Georgia 24-17, and while they came within a half-point of pushing the spread as 6.5-point underdogs, they actually got out-played pretty good that day. Just before that, Florida won at South Carolina 38-27, covering at -3.5, while just prior to that, it lost at LSU 42-28, pushing at +14.

The Gators have been out-gained and out-rushed three of their last four games.

At 5-2 in conference play, Florida trails Georgia by a half-game and a tie-breaker in the SEC East race. The Gators' chances of making the SEC championship game are slim, but the Bulldogs have games against Auburn and Texas A&M coming up. So nothing's been decided yet.

Missouri, meanwhile, is 5-4, a loser of three straight games, after getting blanked at Georgia last Saturday 27-0. The Tigers, as 19-point underdogs and without their starting quarterback and leading receiver, played that spread to a push through three quarters but couldn't quite hold on.

On the night, Mizzou only produced 198 yards of total offense but only gave up 339.

Three weeks ago, in the game they lost starting QB Kelly Bryant to a knee injury, the Tigers lost outright at Kentucky 29-7 as nine-point favorites. And just before that, Missouri lost outright at Vanderbilt 21-14 as 21-point chalk. So the last few weeks haven't gone too well for the Tigers or their financial backers.

At 2-3 in conference play, Mizzou is out of contention in the SEC East, and at 5-4 overall its still needs one win over its last three games to become bowl-eligible. Getting that bowl ban overturned is another story.

As of this writing, Bryant's status for Saturday was still uncertain.

Gators-Tigers Recent History

As mentioned above, Missouri is 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS over seven meetings with Florida since these teams became conference rivals. Last year the Tigers upset the Gators outright as six-point dogs down at the Swamp 38-17, and two years ago, Mizzou pounded Florida 45-16.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Florida is 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS on the road under Coach Mullen.
  • Florida is 5-2 both SU and ATS with Kyle Trask at quarterback.
  • Missouri is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home this season.
  • Missouri is 0-4 ATS over its last four games.
  • On the season teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are 150-32 SU, 93-86 ATS against non-ranked opponents.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 6-4 in Gators games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
  • Unders are 7-2 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 47 points.
  • Unders are 2-0 in the last two meetings between these two teams, but mainly because those totals were lined at 61 and 58.

Florida at Missouri Prediction 11/16/19

Florida is the better team here, especially considering Missouri's iffy quarterback situation, and should win this game. Plus, playing on the road means the spread is a tad friendlier. So despite what's happened in the last two meetings between these teams, we'll give the points here with the Gators.

Free Pick: 
Take the Gators -6.5
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