Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Picks

September 14, 7:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Florida -7.5

Florida Gators (2-0 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Kentucky Wildcats snapped a 31-game losing streak in the “rivalry” with the Florida Gators last year, and shoot for two in a row when the teams meet for an SEC East battle Saturday evening in Lexington. But Florida is lined as a touchdown-plus road favorite for this game. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

Week 3's college football betting odds opened Florida at -7 over Kentucky, with an over/under of 50. Early betting action then added a hook to that spread.

Gators vs. Wildcats Set-Up

Florida opened this season, its second under Coach Mullen, with an underwhelming 24-20 victory over what looks like a bad Miami team, then last week blanked Tennessee-Martin 45-0. The Gators came up short of covering the spread against the Hurricanes as seven-point favorites, then pushed previous week against the Skyhawks at -45.

Florida got out-played by Miami, losing time of possession by a 36/24 split and turning the ball over four times. But the Gators' defense kept them alive, recording 16 tackles for loss on the day.

Florida then racked up 543 yards of total offense against UT-Martin and tacked on a touchdown with four minutes left in the game to salvage that push ATS. But that comes against a second-division FCS outfit.

Kentucky, meanwhile, opened this season, its seventh under Coach Stoops, with a 38-24 win over Toledo, then beat Eastern Michigan last week 38-17. The Wildcats covered as 10-point favorites against the Rockets, then cashed as 15-point favorites against the Eagles.

Kentucky trailed Toledo 14-7 in the second quarter, then used a 31-3 run spanning the halves to take control. Last week the Wildcats jumped out to a 17-0 lead on EMU, and later added a touchdown with just under a minute to go to cover that spread.

UK lost a great running back in Benny Snell to the NFL this spring, but it's run the ball for 176 and 239 yards in its first two games this season.

Gators vs. Wildcats Recent History

Florida owned a 31-game winning streak against Kentucky, winning every meeting from 1987 through 2017. But the Wildcats finally broke through last season and beat the Gators 27-16 down at the Swamp. Kentucky trailed Florida at the half 10-7 but scored the first 14 points out of the locker room and hung on from there for the long-awaited victory.

The Wildcats won outright that night as 12-point underdogs, and that game played under a total of 52.

Kentucky played the Gators close a couple of times shortly before last year's victory, so the talent gap between these two programs has tightened over recent seasons.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Florida is 12-3 SU, 9-5-1 ATS under Coach Mullen. That includes 4-0 marks both SU and ATS in true road games and 2-0 marks SU and ATS when favored by between seven and 10 points.
  • Kentucky is 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS over its last 16 games. The Wildcats are also 8-1 SU but only 4-5 ATS over their last nine home games, 1-1 both SU and ATS as home dogs.
  • So far this college football betting season, teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are 39-4 SU, 23-18-2 ATS against unranked teams. Also, ranked teams are 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS on the road.

Totals Report

  • The UNDER is 2-0 in Gators games this season, which are averaging 44.5 total points.
  • The OVER is 2-0 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 59 points.

Florida at Kentucky Prediction 09/14/2019

Kentucky had its day last season in Gainesville, but Florida is the better team in this match-up, mainly on defense, and should win this game. And playing on the road means the spread is a bit friendlier. We're giving the points with the Gators for our free college football pick.

Free Pick: 
Take Florida -7.5
Expert handicapper Rich Crew is one of the best on the planet and we’re lucky enough to have him providing some free picks against the spread. Get Crew’s and a slew of other cappers plays by checking out our NCAA Football Picks section.