Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds, Pick Against the Spread

November 7, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
FLA +3.5/UGA -3.5

On Saturday, one of the rare neutral-site rivalries in college football will be rekindled when the 8th ranked Florida Gators meet the no. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at TIAA Bank Field with the crown of the SEC East potentially hanging in the balance. The Bulldogs suffered their lone loss of the season to Alabama two weeks ago, while the Gators suffered their only loss against Texas A&M back in week 3 of the SEC season. Therefore, the winner of this Saturday's game will take sole control of the SEC East with an extremely favorable schedule that should earn the winner a trip to Atlanta to battle for the SEC Championship in December.

The question this week is who has the legitimate edge going into Jacksonville. This is perhaps the most evenly matched meeting between Florida and Georgia in recent memory. Interestingly, this Saturday's showdown in Jacksonville will be the 3rd straight meeting between Georgia and Florida, with both schools ranked inside the top 10. However, the Bulldogs have been moderate-sized favorites in each of the last three meetings and have covered in all three games. With that said, I'm not sure Georgia has the big edge that we have seen in recent years, primarily due to their offensive struggles, which were on full display in last week's mere 14-3 victory over Kentucky. As a result, the Gators are just 4.5 point underdogs as they attempt to reclaim the SEC East.

2020 World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party Analysis

If you are not familiar with the moniker, this rivalry game has been coined the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party due to the tremendous tailgating that is produced from both teams. The Bulldogs have held the upper hand during the Kirby Smart era winning the last three meetings in route to 3 straight SEC Championship appearances. Before that three-game winning streak, the Gators had won 21 of the last 27 meetings going back to 1990. Needless to say, Gators fans believe this may be the best opportunity to reclaim the division, which was something they were accustomed to doing frequently from the 1990-2000s.

Personally, I believe Florida fans have legitimate optimism primarily due to their offense. QB Kyle Trask has been thoroughly impressive, completing nearly 70% passing with 18 touchdowns and just two picks on the season. Trask has single-handedly elevated Dan Mullen's run-first offense into a balanced threat. Junior Kyle Pitts remains the best in the nation at the TE position with 22 catches for 355 yards and seven touchdowns. Collectively, the Gators have scored a minimum of 38 points in every outing this season and currently rank 10th in the FBS, averaging 42 points per game.

The reason that statistic is concerning is because the Bulldogs have not produced a lot of firepower on the offensive side of the ball. Following the 41-24 loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs compiled just 336 total yards on the road against Kentucky last week in a 14-3 victory. QB Stetson Bennett passed for only 131 yards and threw two interceptions. In recent weeks, running back Zamir White has been among the few bright spots on the offense. White rushed for a season-high 136 yards last week as the Bulldogs offense handed him the ball 26 times. Coach Smart has some serious issues going on at the quarterback position, which means they may keep the ball on the ground more frequently moving forward. Luckily, Georgia has one of the best defenses in the SEC to lean on, which will help in this week's match-up, but they are still going to have to find ways to produce more points if they are going to make it 4 in a row over the Gators.

Florida vs. Georgia Betting Trends

  • Florida is 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
  • Florida has hit the "over" in five of the last six games.
  • Georgia is 11-2 SU in the last 13 games.
  • Georgia has hit the "under" in 11 of the last 14 games.
  • Georgia is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings against Florida.
  • The "under" has hit in six of the last nine meetings between Florida and Georgia.
  • Georgia is also 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as favorites (covered last three over Florida as favorites)

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction ATS 11/7/20

I somewhat understand the logic of the Bulldogs being favored in this spot. Georgia has been the more highly ranked team all year, and the consensus pick to take down the division. However, I believe Florida is playing the better football between both schools as it currently stands. I imagine this will be a hard-fought game on both sides of the ball. The only difference is the Gators have the playmakers to make critical plays on the offensive side of the football. Georgia does not. As a result, I think the Gators win outright!</p>
Free Pick: 
Take the Florida Gators +3.5
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