Cotton Bowl - Boston College vs. Boise State Broncos Pick - Odds

Date: 
December 26, 1:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Boise State -3
Total: 
55

The ACC’s Boston College Eagles and MWC’s Boise State Broncos kick off bowl action on Wednesday, Dec. 26 in this year’s First Responder Bowl at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Game time on ESPN is set for 1:30 p.m.

Boston College vs. Boise State Overview

Boston College heads into the postseason with a 7-5 record both straight-up and against the spread. It closed out its regular season schedule with three losses in a row (SU and ATS), including defeats against Florida State on the road and Syracuse at home as a favorite. The total went OVER 61 points in a 42-21 loss to the Orange after staying UNDER in the Eagles’ previous four games. They are 2-1 ATS in three games this season as underdogs.

The Eagles were fourth in the ACC’s Atlantic Division this season at an even 4-4 SU in conference play. Led by Anthony Brown at quarterback and AJ Dillon as the team’s leading rusher, they had a balanced attack on offense between the pass and the run. Brown threw for 2,121 yards and 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions while Dillon gained 1,108 yards rushing with 10 scores on 227 attempts. Boston College averaged 32.0 points a game while allowing an average of 25.7 points on the other side of the ball.

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The Broncos went 7-1 to win the MWC’s Mountain Division, but they came up short in the conference title game in a tight 19-16 overtime loss to Fresno State as slight 1.5-point underdogs. This was their third SU loss against 10 wins and their overall record ATS stands at 7-5-1. The total has stayed UNDER in Boise State’s last five games, and it went 2-2-1 ATS in its previous five games closing as a favorite.

Brett Rypien is coming off his worst performance of the season at quarterback, but his overall numbers still speak for themselves with 3,705 total passing yards on 301 completions, including 30 for touchdowns against seven interceptions. Alexander Mattison led the way on the ground with 1,415 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 302 carries. This includes the 200 yards he piled up in that loss to Fresno State. Mattison gained at least 140 yards in each of his last four starts.

Boston College vs. Boise State Betting Trends

  • The Eagles have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record, but they are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine postseason bowl games.
  • The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and they have a 9-4 record ATS in their previous 13 games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven bowl games.
  • Boston College won the only previous meeting against Boise State both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER the closing line.

Boston College vs. Boise State Prediction 12/26/2018

As a mid-level ACC team, the Eagles could actually be stepping up in class against one of the top teams in the competitive Mountain West. Anytime you have a top Mid Major going up against a fairly average team from a Power 5 conference there is value going with a team that is coming in with something to prove.

Take the Broncos both SU and ATS in this matchup in a game that will not be as close as the current spread suggests.

Free Pick: 
Take the Broncos -3
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