Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Week 14 Pick

November 29, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Memphis -10

The No. 18 Memphis Tigers (10-1) will host the No. 19 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-1) for a Black Friday American Athletic Conference showdown that influences not only the conference race but also bears New Year's Six Bowl implications. Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET and broadcast for national audiences on ABC. The Tigers have won the last three meetings between these two sides. However, Cincy and Memphis have not met since 2016 when the Bearcats took on hosting duties. Closing as a seven-point road favorite, UM would lay waste to Cincy 34-7 and cover easy.

Last week, we put together a 2-1 week in our plays. Winning Texas State +30 and Navy -3 and our sole loss coming on UTEP failed as a seven-point underdog losing 44-35 in the Battle of I-10.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Key Injury Concerns

Neither Cincinnati nor Memphis have any key injuries to report as they venture into this pivotal AAC match-up.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Overview

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats continued to roll as they earned their ninth consecutive win and tenth overall this season against the Temple Owls last Saturday. In a defensive affair, the Cats defeated the Owls 15-13 and, as a result, failed to cover for the second straight game-closing as a 7.5-point favorite at kick-off.

Memphis Tigers

The Tigers step into this game off a 49-10 thumping of South Florida in Tampa, last Saturday. Memphis was easy money covering for their third consecutive outing, this time priced as a 14.5-point favorite. Memphis’ one loss this season was a controversial two-point defeat sustained against Temple in Philadelphia on October 12th.

Reasons To Back Cincinnati Bearcats

I can't help but think that Memphis being in a prime-time spotlight match-up earlier this month against an undefeated SMU team is influencing this market heavily. After all, Memphis looked like lights out against the Ponies for nearly all of the game until the Mustangs tried to spark a late rally that got them to within one score of Memphis. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been living the past few weeks dangerously with narrow wins against ECU, USF, and Temple in three of their last four outings. Cincinnati’s credibility is far less prominent in this contest as a result, and that translates to Cincy likely priced at an equitable figure.

ReasonsTo Avoid Memphis Tigers

The Tigers defense will struggle mightily to have an answer for one of the premier rushers in all of college football, Cincinnati’s running back Michael Warren. Memphis gives up a 78th-ranked 166.5 rushing yards per game which will leave Warren salivating. The Bearcat bull boasts 939 yards on the ground this season, along with 13 scores. Sure, Memphis' offense averages 42.2 points per game (8th in the FBS), but it will be hard for them to get a high pitch count if their defense is on the field for prolonged periods with no answer for Mike Warren and company. This makes the Tigers a dangerous proposition laying double-digit points.

Cincinnati at Memphis Prediction 11/28/19

There is one other intangible that Cincinnati has to complement its running game: its defense. The Bearcats give up just 19.9 points per match (23rd in the FBS), which is another excellent parry to Memphis' explosive offense. Cincinnati will limit Memphis' opportunities to score, and when the Tigers have the rock, I anticipate there will be fewer touchdowns and more field goals. Make no mistake, this game is going to be a close one throughout, but no one should be taking back more than a touchdown on either side. Cincy can win this one outright, but be that as it may, I like them to come in under the number.

Free Pick: 
Take Cincinnati +10

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