Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers AAC Championship Pick

December 7, 3:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Memphis -9.5

The Memphis Tigers (11-1) will host the Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) for the American Athletic Conference Championship. Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET and televised for national audiences on ABC. The Tigers extended their win streak in this series to four games when they defeated the Bearcats 34-24 last Saturday when they hosted Cincinnati in Memphis. However, Cincy managed to produce a cover when it closed as a 14-point underdog.

Last week, our selections went 2-1 or 1-1-1 (depending on when you bet Cincinnati). Our UL Monroe +21 play covered easy and nearly won outright in a 31-30 loss against arch-rival UL Lafayette. We also had Cincinnati +10 in last week's match between these two sides, which produced a push. To those that waited for the market to move anywhere between +10.5 and +14, where it closed on game-day, you would have had found yourself at the cashier window. Our USF +24 play was in range for a push at minimum until a late UCF field goal put us out of reach in a 34-7 loss in the War on I-4.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Key Injury Concerns

Bearcats Quarterback Desmond Ridder remains a question mark for the AAC Championship Game after he missed last week’s clash with an unspecified injury.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers Overview

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats' nine-game winning streak came to a screeching halt last week at the hands of their opponents for the American Athletic Conference hardware. In breaking down the match-up in greater detail, Cincy had hung with Memphis for most of the game before a late Memphis touchdown extended the lead to 10 and enabled the Tigers to pull away.

Memphis Tigers

The Tigers have now won six straight since their sole defeat this season coming at the hands of Temple on the road on October 12th. As a result of last week’s outcome, the Tigers saw a three-game win streak against the spread come to an end when Memphis failed to cover. Overall, Cincinnati is now 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests within this series.

Reasons To Back Cincinnati Bearcats

It's tough for any team to beat the same outfit twice in the same season, let alone in back-to-back weeks. For this reason, Cincinnati looks like a quality play again this week as there were a lot of positives to expand on from last week's outing. The Bearcats' rushing attack was right up to par as it accrued 178 yards on the ground while also totaling two scores. Cincy's downfall resulted in turning the ball over three times to Memphis' one and special teams becoming instrumental as well. Memphis opened the game with a 94-yard kick-off return touchdown that got the Music City Tigers up a score rapidly out of the gate. Should Cincy get its act together this week and clean up the takeaways along with special teams play, we can see an entirely different result in the final box score.

Reasons To Avoid Memphis Tigers

The moment may become overwhelming for the Tigers. Last week, Memphis had to win to play for the American Athletic Conference title along with gaining the possibility to battle for a New Year’s Six bowl berth. Now, Memphis will have to do it again and keep a straight face while they do so against a team that will be looking to atone for last week’s loss. For Cincinnati, the NY6 dream is all but finished, but there is still plenty to play for.

Moreover, the Bearcats are chomping at the bit to get Memphis again as they would be right in thinking they could have won outright last week. In addition, Memphis was in the previous two AAC Championship games against UCF and came up short on both occasions in heartbreaking fashion. With Memphis having to face its skeletons in their closet, they are a dicey play laying double-digits.

Cincinnati at Memphis AAC Championship Prediction

The American Athletic Conference will probably itself in terms of the New Year’s Six race as I firmly believe Cincinnati can win the re-match outright this time around. Be that as it may, there are plenty of points on the table and I recommend taking advantage of them accordingly.

Free Pick: 
Take Cincinnati +9.5

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