BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies Free Pick & Odds Analysis

October 1, 9:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
BYU -8.5/USU +8.5

The state of Utah gives us a good old rivalry game to watch and bet when BYU and Utah State battle for the Old Wagon Wheel Friday night in Logan. The 4-0 Cougars sit at No. 15 in this week's Coaches' Poll, while USU is 3-1 and lined as a home dog. Which way are we going here with our free pick?

BYU-Utah State Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened BYU at around -8.5 over Utah State, with an over/under of around 58. Early betting action then bumped the Cougars to -9 and steamed that total to 62.5.

BYU Betting Preview

The Cougars are 4-0 on the season after beating South Florida last week 35-27. BYU, playing without its starting quarterback, scored touchdowns on its first three possessions of the game and led 28-6 at the half. The Cougars then allowed the Bulls to get within one score with six minutes left but ran out the clock from there to ice the victory. However, after leading by 22 at the half while favored by 22, BYU let USF come back and take the money. The Cougars out-gained the Bulls 448-360. Sophomore QB Baylor Romney, starting in place of injured starter Jaren Hall last week, hit on 20/25 throws for 305 yards and three touchdowns. As of this writing, Hall is listed as probable to return to action Friday night, but it looks like BYU might be OK either way. BYU opened this season with a 24-16 win at Arizona but came up short as a 13-point favorite. The Cougars then “upset” rival Utah 26-17 as seven-point dogs, then beat a ranked Arizona State 27-17 as three-point dogs. Brigham Young only returned 11 starters this season from a team that played 11-1 last year, so we figured they'd struggle at least a bit. But they're off to a pretty good start.

Utah State Betting Preview

The Aggies, meanwhile, are 3-1 on the season after falling to Boise State last week 27-3. Utah State fell down 17-0 at the half, got to within 17-3 early in the fourth quarter but faded from there, taking its first loss of the season and whiffing ATS as a home dog getting 9.5 points. The Aggies actually out-gained the Broncos 443-435 and out-rushed Boise State 235-148 but also missed two make-able field goals, botched a (supposedly) fake punt, got called for 13 penalties for 86 yards, and lost the turnover battle 3-1, resulting in a -13 points differential. In other words, a lot of things went wrong for the Aggies last week. Utah State opened this season with a 26-23 upset of Washington State, winning that game outright as a 17-point dog. The Aggies then beat FCS North Dakota 48-24, covering as 6.5-point favorites. USU then scored the last 15 points of the game to win outright at Air Force 49-45 as a nine-point dog.

Utah State returned 19 starters for new HC Anderson this season, so the cupboard wasn't exactly bare. We won't be surprised when the Aggies make it back to a bowl this season after missing out last season.

More Picks: Arkansas at Georgia Best Bet

BYU-Utah State Recent History

The Cougars lead the all-time series with the Aggies 49-37-3, but these teams have split the last six SU and ATS meetings. Most recently, two seasons ago, BYU came to Logan as a three-point underdog and beat Utah State 42-14. These teams missed each other last year.

College Football Betting Trends

So far, this CFB betting season teams ranked in the Coaches' Top 25 are 61-10 SU but only 31-38 ATS against unranked teams. BYU is 9-9 both SU and ATS against the Mountain West Conference over the last five seasons.

Totals Report

Unders are 3-1 in Cougars games this season, which are averaging 47 total points. Totals are split 2-2 in Aggies games this season, which are averaging 61 points. Overs are 5-1 over the last six meetings between these two teams.

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies Prediction 10/1/21

BYU is the better team here and deservedly favored, but the Cougars haven't exactly been beating up on the Mountain West over recent seasons. Meanwhile, Utah State returned a whole bunch of starters this season, and while it had a lot of things go wrong last week against Boise State, we expect better football luck this week. We like the Aggies plus the points here.  

Free Pick: 
Take Utah State +9