BCS Championship Betting Odds - Point Spread Pick
Point Spread: Ball State -8
Money Line: Arkansas State +260 Ball State -290
Auburn needed a pair of miracle plays in two different games to get to this point, but it is hard to say the Tigers do not deserve a spot in the BCS Championship after posting a 12-1 straight-up mark that includes an impressive 7-1 SU run through conference play. The Tigers capped everything off with a dominating 59-42 romp of Missouri in the SEC title game as two-point underdogs. They are a highly profitable 11-2 against the spread and the total has gone OVER in eight of the 13 games.
The Tigers' unexpected rise to the top of the rankings had a lot to do with a punishing ground game that led the nation in yards per game (335.7). Tre Mason was the team leader in rushing with 1,621 yards and 22 touchdowns on 283 carries, but another game changer for Auburn was the play of quarterback Nick Marshall. He was not asked to do too much in the passing game with just 1,759 yards on 212 throws, but he averaged 6.6 yards a carry on the ground for 1,023 yards and 11 scores. Auburn's bend but do not break defense allowed an average of 24 points to complement an offense that racked-up 40.2 points a game.
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Florida State was expected to compete with Clemson this season for the ACC title, but it left the Tigers in the dust in Week 8 with a 51-14 romp over its Atlantic Division rivals as a five-point road favorite. The Seminoles went on to answer every test they faced en route to a perfect 13-0 SU run, but overall strength of schedule continues to dog their legitimacy as the top team in the land. One thing we know for sure is that Florida State was another team that was a financial boon to the bankroll this season with an 11-2 mark ATS. The total went OVER in 10 of its 13 games.
The rise to the top of the rankings followed the sudden and unexpected rise of another freshmen phenom at quarterback. Jameis Winston has already taken home his fair share of postseason hardware including the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns while completing 67.9 percent of his 349 attempts. This guy is a playmaker that can break a game wide open at a moment's notice. It also helps to have a defense that is ranked first in the nation in points allowed (10.7).
Auburn vs. Florida State Betting Trends
The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games against a team from the ACC.
The Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last five nonconference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games against the SEC.
These two teams have not faced one another in recent memory. Auburn comes in with a 4-1 record ATS in its last five bowl games and the total has stayed UNDER in six of its last eight bowl appearances. Florida State has posted a profitable 8-0-1 ATS record in its last nine bowls and the total has stayed UNDER in its last four trips to a bowl. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five BCS title games and a team from the SEC has won the last seven both SU and ATS.
BCS Championship Game Point Spread Pick
You may feel that Auburn is lucky to be in this game, but you have to give the Tigers all the credit in the world for continually finding ways to win. They may run into a bit of a wall in this contest, but you still have to bank on them coming up with enough big plays on both sides of the ball to keep things closer than 8.5 points.