Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma Sooners Big 12 Championship Pick

December 7, 12:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Oklahoma -9

Oklahoma and Baylor will play not just for the Big 12 championship Saturday afternoon at JerryWorld but also perhaps for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Sooners just beat the Bears three weeks ago but had to come from way behind to do it and couldn't cover a double-digit spread. But the spread on this game is a couple of points friendlier. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football's Big 12 championship game betting odds opened Oklahoma at -9 over Baylor, with an over/under of 61. Early betting action then bumped that total to 62.

Bears vs. Sooners Set-Up

Baylor is 2-0 both SU and ATS since losing to Oklahoma last month, after crushing Kansas previous week 61-6. The Bears led 21-0 after one quarter, 34-0 at the half and 48-0 before allowing the Jayhawks to hit the board, on their way to the easy win and cover as 14-point favorites.

On the day Baylor out-gained Kansas 507-280, out-rushed the Jayhawks 264-161 and won the turnover battle 6-1.

Two weeks ago, the Bears topped Texas 24-10, covering at -4.

However, Baylor's actually been out-rushed three times over its last four games.

At 11-1 overall, the Bears could conceivably make the CFP with a win Saturday and a little help from elsewhere.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU but only 1-3 ATS since suffering its only loss of the season to Kansas State. Last week the Sooners defeated rival Oklahoma State in the Bedlam Bowl 34-16, covering as 14-point favorites.

OU only led the Cowboys 20-16 late into the third quarter but scored the last two touchdowns of the game for the win and the money.

On the night, the Sooners out-gained OSU 450-335, won the ground battle 283-128 and held a 34:26 edge in time of possession.

So Oklahoma has out-gained every opponent this season, most by large margins, and out-rushed 11 of 12 foes.

However, the Sooners are only 1-3 ATS over their last four games because they couldn't cover 14 points against Iowa State, 11 points against Baylor, or 19 points against TCU.

But at 11-1 overall, the Sooners also retain a chance of making the CFP, and style points here might count.

Bears-Sooners Recent History

Oklahoma owns a five-game winning streak in the rivalry with Baylor, going 3-2 ATS along the way. Three weeks ago, the Sooners rallied like hell to beat the previously unbeaten Bears 34-31 in Waco, although Baylor hung on for the cover as an 11-point underdog.

The Bears led that game 31-10 at halftime, then allowed the Sooners to win the second half 24-0. On the night Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307, out-rushed the Bears 228-113, made 34 first downs to 18 for Baylor and dominated time of possession by a 41:19 split.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog.
  • Oklahoma is 1-3 ATS this season when favored by two touchdowns or less.
  • In match-ups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season, the higher-ranked outfits are 27-11 SU but only 16-22 ATS.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 6-6 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.
  • Unders are 5-6-1 in Sooners games this season, even though they're averaging a healthy 69 points. Obviously, Oklahoma is going up against some large totals again this season.
  • Overs are 6-4 over the last ten games in the series between these two teams.

Baylor at Oklahoma Prediction 12/7/19

Oklahoma is just the better team here, with the more explosive offense and even the better defense. And the Sooners probably won't have to rally from 28 down to win this one. So despite the recent slump ATS, we're giving the points here with OU.

Free Pick: 
Take Oklahoma -9