Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Pick

Date: 
December 14, 3:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Navy -10.5
Total: 
40

College football's regular season comes to an end with the 120th edition of Army-Navy Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia. Navy recently dominated this rivalry for a decade and a half, but Army carries a three-game series winning streak into this contest. Which way are we going here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football's betting odds opened Navy at -10 over Army, with an over/under of right around 43. Early betting action then bumped the Midshipmen to -10.5 and dropped that total to 40.

Army vs. Navy Set-Up

The Black Knights started 3-1 this season, with a near-upset of Michigan in Ann Arbor, but then lost five games in a row. Army then won two straight but lost last time out 52-31 out at Hawaii. The Knights then had last week off.

Army only trailed the Rainbow Warriors 38-31 through three quarters but came up empty from there and failed to cover as a three-point underdog.

The Cadets lost starting quarterback Kelvin Hopkins, Jr. to a leg injury in the second quarter of that game but still managed to pile up 538 yards of total offense, including 411 on the ground, even with their third- and fourth-stringers taking snaps. Unfortunately, the Army defense gave up 492 yards of Hawaii offense.

Hopkins, who leads the team in rushing this season with 706 yards, is expected to start Saturday.

Prior to that most recent loss, the Black Knights beat Massachusetts and VMI by a combined score of 110-13, covering at -34 and -36.

At 5-7 overall Army will not play in a bowl this season. Actually, this game is this season's bowl for the Black Knights.

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The Midshipmen, meanwhile, are 2-0 both SU and ATS since taking that loss at Notre Dame last month. Navy followed that up with a 35-28 win over SMU, covering at -3.5, then won at Houston 56-41, covering at -9. The Mids then also had last week off.

Navy spotted the Cougars the first seven points of the game two weeks ago but scored touchdowns on its first three possessions. The Midshipmen finally built a two-score lead early in the fourth quarter and held on from there.

Navy ran the ball for 447 yards against Houston, the sixth time in its last seven games it hit the 300-yard mark on the ground.

The Mids finished 7-1 in the AAC this season but missed out on the conference championship game because of a loss earlier this season to Memphis, which went on to win the AAC title contest.

At 9-2 overall Navy is headed for the Liberty Bowl, where it will meet a rejuvenated Kansas State.

Army-Navy Recent History

Navy beat Army 14 times in a row from 2002-15, but the Black Knights have won the last three meetings, including a 17-10 decision last year. Army is also 6-1-1 ATS in the previous eight meetings in the series, mainly because the teams have played a bunch of close games, and the Cadets are usually the underdogs.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 5-5-1 in Army games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.
  • Overs are 7-4 in Navy games this season, which are averaging 63 points.
  • Unders are 11-0 over the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.

Army vs Navy Prediction 12/14/2019

Navy is one of the more pleasant surprises of this college football season, winning nine games (so far) after going 3-10 last year. Army, meanwhile, is finishing off a disappointing season, after going 11-2 last year. But these teams are closer than the spread on this game would indicate. Army played well against its toughest opponent this season (Michigan), while Navy played poorly against probably its toughest foe (Notre Dame). Also, the Black Knights' QB situation is a bit up in the air at the moment, but the back-ups have looked good in spots. Finally, seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by seven points or less. We're taking Army plus the points.

Free Pick: 
Take Army +10.5
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