Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Odds & Pick

Date: 
December 11, 3:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Army -7/ Navy +7
Total: 
35

College football gives us one last regular-season game to watch and bet when Army battles Navy in the 122nd edition of this classic rivalry Saturday afternoon at the home of the Giants and Jets in New Jersey. Navy leads the all-time series with Army 61-53-7 and has owned this rivalry for almost two decades. But the Black Knights are fighting back, taking four of the last five meetings. Also, Army is headed to a bowl this season while the Midshipmen, well, this is their bowl. The Knights are favored by a touchdown and a hook for what should be another low-scoring affair. Which way are we going here with our college football betting pick?

Army Betting Odds

The college football betting lines opened the Black Nights as eight-point favorites over the Midshipmen, with an over/under of right around 37. Early betting action then edged that line down to 7.5 and dipped that total to 36. According to Sagarin's college football ratings at USAToday.com Army should be favored by 9.5 for this game.

Army-Navy College Football Betting Preview

The Black Knights ride a four-game winning streak into Saturday after beating Liberty two weeks ago 31-16. Army then enjoyed last week off. The Knights, playing as three-point road dogs against the Flames, scored the first 24 points of the game and led 24-3 at the half. Army then scored the first seven points out of the locker room, let Liberty get back within two scores late in the third quarter but held on from there for the victory. The Black Knights out-rushed the Flames 220-79, dominated time of possession by a 36:24 split, won the turnover battle 2-0, and held on fourth down three times in the first half, creating short fields for the Army offense to help build that big early lead. So the Knights out-rushed nine of their 11 opponents this season, often by huge margins. Army started 4-0 this season, beating three bowl-bound teams in Georgia State, Western Kentucky, and Miami-Ohio, then lost three in a row to Ball State, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest. But the Black Knights bounced back to win their last four in a row, including a big overtime victory at Air Force. So with a win Saturday Army will claim sole possession of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for the fourth time in the last five seasons. The Black Knights are also headed to the Armed Forces Bowl to play Missouri on Dec. 22.

Navy Betting Preview

The Midshipmen, meanwhile, are 2-2 SU over their last four games and 4-1 ATS over their last five after winning at Temple two weeks ago 38-14. Navy then also had last week off. The Midshipmen scored the first 14 points of the game against the Owls and led 17-7 at the half. Navy later let Temple get within 24-14 late in the third quarter but tacked on two touchdowns from there and covered as a 13-point favorite. The Mids out-rushed the Owls 219-84, dominated time of possession by a 37:23 split, and won the turnover battle 3-1. So Navy also out-rushed nine of its 11 opponents this season. Moving the ball in other ways, though, was a tough task for the Midshipmen. Navy started 0-3 this season with a tough loss to a pretty good Houston team. The Midshipmen later lost one-score games to SMU, College Football Playoff qualifier Cincinnati (27-20), and East Carolina. Navy is also 7-2 ATS its last nine times out, keeping most games close while getting points on the spread.

These two teams played just one common opponent this season; Army beat Air Force in overtime 21-14 while Navy lost to the Falcons 23-3.

Army-Navy Recent History

Navy beat Army 14 times in a row from 2002-15, but the Black Knights are trying to turn that worm, winning four of the last five meetings SU, going 3-1-1 ATS in the process. Last year, playing this game at West Point for the first time since 1943, Army broke open a close game in the fourth quarter, won 15-0, and covered at -7.5. Also, that game played under a total of 36.

College Football Betting Trends

The underdog is 6-3-1 ATS over the last 10 Army-Navy games because seven of those games were decided by seven points or less.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 6-5 in Army games this season, which are averaging 58 total points.
  • The Unders is also 6-5 in Navy games this season, which are averaging 50 points.
  • The Under is a perfect 10-0 over the last 10 Army-Navy games.

Army vs. Navy Prediction ATS 12/11/21

Army is playing 111 yards per game better than Navy offensively and 35 YPG better defensively. The Black Knights are also out-rushing opponents by 198 YPG. Army also owns the better performance against the common opponent. And according to Sagarin, the Knights should be favored by even more than they are. We like Army to continue its recent run in this rivalry and cover this spread.  

Free Pick: 
Take Army