Appalachian State at ULL Odds - Free Pick ATS

October 12, 7:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
App St -3.5/Lou-Laf +3.5

College football gives us a Tuesday night game this week to watch and bet when 4-1 Louisiana hosts 4-1 Appalachian State for a Sun Belt bout down on the bayou. These teams have met in the SBC championship game two of the last three seasons and might do it again this season. But while the Mountaineers have owned the rivalry with the Cajuns since they became rivals not too long ago Louisiana won last year’s match.

App State is favored here by three and a hook on the road; which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened the Mountaineers as 3.5-point road favorites for this contest, with an over/under of right around 55. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Appalachian State Betting Preview

Appalachian State is 4-1 on the season after winning at Georgia State two Saturdays ago 45-16. The Mountaineers turned an early take-away into a touchdown but only led 14-6 at the half. App State then allowed the Panthers get within 14-9 midway through the third quarter but hit the gas and scored 31 points over the next 12 minutes, on its way toward the victory and the cover at -10.5. The Mountaineers out-gained GSU 502-380, scoring twice on long pass plays, and won the turnover battle 3-1. Four weeks ago App State lost to Miami-Fla. 25-23 on a late Hurricanes field goal. Since then the Mountaineers are 3-0, averaging 40 points per game. At 1-0 in Sun Belt play Appalachian State is trying to stay perfect into next week’s East Division showdown with Coastal Carolina.

Louisiana-Lafayette Betting Preview

Louisiana-Lafayette, meanwhile, is also 4-1 on the season after winning at South Alabama two Saturdays ago 20-18. The Cajuns used a long kick-off return and two subsequent scores to lead 20-0 in the second quarter, then went cold offensively and let the Jaguars get within two points early in the fourth quarter. Louisiana then survived a missed USA field goal at the buzzer to avoid what would have been a disastrous defeat. UL-L also finished short ATS at -12. Louisiana actually got out-gained by the Jags 387-283 and lost time of possession by a 37:23 split, although they also won the ground battle 225-144. The Cajuns opened this season with that rather disappointing loss to Texas and while they’re 4-0 SU since then they’re also 1-3 ATS over that span, favored by too much too often. At 2-0 in SBC play Louisiana leads the West Division by a half-game over Texas State.

Mountaineers-Cajuns Recent History

Appalachian State beat Louisiana eight times in a row from 2014-19, twice in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, going 5-3 ATS along the way. But the Cajuns finally broke through last year and beat the Mountaineers 24-21 in the rain in Boone on a missed ASU field goal at the buzzer. Louisiana played that game for pride, having already clinched a spot in the SBC title tilt, and got out-played by App State. But the Cajuns won the turnover battle that night 3-0, creating a +14 points differential.

Also, that game played under a total of 52.5.

College Football Betting Trends

App State is only 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven true road games, although that’s probably a correction after going 10-2 ATS on the road in 2018-19. Louisiana is 8-4-1 ATS its last 13 games as an underdog.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-2 in Mountaineers games this season, which are averaging 55 total points. Unders are 4-1 in Cajuns games this season, which are averaging 51 points. Unders are 7-2 over the last nine meetings between these two teams, which have trended reasonably low-scoring against a bunch of totals in the mid-50s/low-60s.

Appalachian State vs. ULL Prediction 10/12/21

Appalachian State has out-gained and out-rushed four of its five opponents this season while Louisiana has been out-gained by four of its five opponents and out-rushed by three of its five foes. Also, the Mountaineers nearly beat Miami while the Cajuns lost rather soundly to Texas. Heck, Louisiana shoulda lost to South Alabama last week. And while UL-L won this match-up last season they actually got out-played. We’ll take App State here, playing on the road, where spreads are friendlier.   

Free Pick: 
Take App State -3.5