Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers Point Spread - Free Pick

Date: 
October 15, 3:30 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Ala -9/Tenn +9
Total: 
67

It's the biggest game in Knoxville in recent memory when the No. 6 Volunteers challenge the No. 3 Crimson Tide Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee is coming off a big SEC road victory at LSU last week, while Alabama is coming off a frighteningly close call against Texas A&M.

The Tide might be without their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Saturday, but they're still favored by a touchdown. Which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Alabama-Tennessee Betting Odds

This week's college football betting lines opened Alabama at -7 over Tennessee with an over/under of right around 65. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action but with news on Young the spread has moved to -9 and the total to 67.

Alabama-Tennessee College Football Betting Preview

The Crimson Tide are 6-0 on the season after surviving the upset bid of Texas A&M last week 24-20. Alabama, playing without starting QB Bryce Young, scored the first seven points of the game and never trailed. The Tide broke a 14-14 tie with the last three points of the first half, then scored the first seven points of the second half to go up two scores. In the end, Alabama held on the final play of the game from its own 2-yard line to secure the victory.

However, 'Bama never threatened to cover the spread as a 24-point favorite.

The Tide out-gained the Aggies 399-323 and out-rushed A&M 288-70 but kept the game close by turning the ball over four times and missing two make-able field goals.

Red-shirt freshman Jalen Milroe, playing in place of Young, threw three touchdown passes and ran the ball for 83 yards. But he also threw one interception and lost two fumbles.

Two weeks ago, Alabama lost Young to a shoulder injury in the second quarter at Arkansas but won anyway 49-26 and covered at -17.

The Tide won three other games this season by blow-outs but also survived a 20-19 decision at Texas back in Week 2. So this is not one of those absolutely overpowering teams Alabama's fielded over recent seasons, at least not yet.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is 5-0 on the season after winning at LSU last week 40-13. The Volunteers, coming off a bye week, turned a Tigers fumble on the opening kick-off into a touchdown, scored the first 20 points of the game, and led 23-7 at the half. The Vols then scored the first 14 points of the second half and eased home from there for the big SEC road W and the easy money at -2.5.

Tennessee out-gained Louisiana State 502-355, and almost half the yardage the Volunteer defense allowed came in total garbage time. The Vols also out-rushed LSU 263-55 and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Three weeks ago, Tennessee built a 38-21 lead on Florida, won 38-33 but gave away the cover at -11. Four weeks ago, the Volunteers beat Akron 63-6, covering at -47, and five weeks ago, they won at Pitt 34-27, covering at -6. With this 5-0 start, it looks like this is Tennessee's best team since Coach Fulmer roamed the sidelines.

Tide-Vols Recent History

Alabama owns a 15-game winning streak on Tennessee (average score 39-13), going 11-4 ATS along the way. Last year in Tuscaloosa, the Tide trailed the Vols 14-7 early and only led 31-24 early in the fourth quarter, then scored three touchdowns in seven minutes, won 52-24, and covered at -24.

'Bama actually dominated that game, for the most part, out-gaining Tennessee 574-347 and winning time of possession by a 40:20 split.

Also, that game played over a total of 68.

College Football Betting Trends

In games involving two AP Top 25 teams this season, the higher-ranked outfits are 11-8 SU and 8-10 ATS.

Top 10 teams are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS on the road this season.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 4-2 in Tide games this season which are averaging 57 total points.
  • The Overs are 3-2 in Vols games this season which are averaging 64 points.
  • The Overs are 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these teams.

Alabama at Tennessee Prediction ATS 10/15/22

Alabama QB Young is listed as questionable for Saturday, but our pick doesn't depend on him. Backup Milroe comes pretty highly regarded himself, and if he just cuts down on the turnovers' Bama should be fine on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Tennessee seems headed in a very good direction under Coach Heupel, but this is their biggest test yet. The Vols came up with a big performance for a big SEC road win last week but in our book, that sets them up as candidates for a letdown this week. The Tide probably won't win this one by anything close to 39-13, but 28-20 would be enough. We're giving the points here with Alabama.  
 
Free Pick: 
Take Alabama -9