AAC Championship Game - Memphis Tigers at Central Florida Knights Pick - Betting Odds

Date: 
December 1, 3:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
UCF -3.5
Total: 
70.5

The Memphis Tigers will get another chance to end the Central Florida Knights’ extended straight-up winning streak in this season’s AAC title game in Orlando. Game time from Spectrum Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. on ABC.

Memphis at Central Florida Overview

Memphis came extremely close to ending this streak back in mid-October in 31-30 loss as a five-point home underdog. The total stayed UNDER the elevated 80.5-point total line. This was part of an SU 5-3 record in conference play that included losses to Navy and Tulane on the road. The 8-4 (SU and ATS), Tigers, have won their last four games both SU and against the spread with the total going OVER in four of their previous five games.

In Friday’s wild 52-31 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point home favorite, Memphis scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull away from a 31-31 tie at the end of the third. Brady White completed 21-of-33 passing attempts for 209 yards and one score while Darrell Henderson gained 178 yards on the ground as part of the Tigers’ 401 total rushing yards in that game on 59 attempts. Memphis averaged 275.9 rushing yards per game and 43.8 points on the scoreboard this season.

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The Knights are just two wins away from posting a second-straight undefeated season. Friday's 38-10 home victory against South Florida as 16.5-point favorites raised their record to 11-0 SU with an 8-3 mark ATS. The total stayed UNDER 69.5 points against the Bulls, and it has stayed UNDER in eight of their 11 games. Central Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games, and the total has stayed UNDER in four of those six games.

The latest win came at a very steep price with a devastating knee injury to starting quarterback McKenzie Milton. Darriel Mack Jr. took his place in the second quarter and completed five of his 14 passing attempts for 81 yards. The Knights relied heavily on a ground game that racked up 391 yards on 58 carries. Greg McCrae led the way with 181 yards rushing and three scores on 16 attempts. UCF averaged 269.8 rushing yards per game this year on an offense that averaged 43.1 points per game.

Memphis at Central Florida Betting Trends

  • The Tigers have gone 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games and they have covered in four of their previous games following a straight up win. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 December games.
  • The Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a SU winning record on the road. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine home games against a SU winning team on the road.
  • The home team in this matchup has covered in 11 of the last 12 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in six of the previous eight games between the two.

Memphis at Central Florida Prediction 12/01/2018

Memphis was the closest call UCF faced all season, and it gave the Knights a good battle in last season's 34-27 loss in the AAC Championship as a 6.5-point road underdog. Add in the loss of Milton and Central Florida will need a solid effort in every phase of the game to win on Saturday.

I have the Knights extending their SU winning streak to 25 games, and I also have them covering the 3.5-point spread to cash a winning bet.

Free Pick: 
Take Central Florida -3.5