Virginia Cavaliers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick

April 8, 9:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Virginia -1.5

It's the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Virginia Cavaliers in the 2019 NCAA basketball championship game. The college basketball board lists the Cavaliers as a small -1.5 favorite with an Over/Under line of 117.5 points.

Early public betting action has been on the Red Raiders with most consensus betting sites showing 60% or higher of the point spread wagers coming in on Texas Tech. The low total line has seen bettors pound the OVER with some sportsbooks reporting as high as 75% of the action coming in on that side of the O/U line.

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How they got here

Texas Tech weathered a late second d half flurry by Michigan State to pull away in the end and win by 10 as a +2 underdog. The Red Raiders have been destroying opponents throughout the winning an average margin of 14 points with their lowest margin of victory being 6 points.

Virginia needed a questionable last second call to avoid defeat in their latest a 63 to 62 win over Auburn. Unlike the Red Raiders, the Cavaliers have survived to make it to the final with narrow victory over the Tigers, a five-point overtime win over the Boilermakers and a four-point win over the Ducks. Their backers have received a negative return with Virginia's 2-3 ATS mark.

Why Texas Tech Will Win

The Red Raiders have been playing exceptional defense the entire tournament. Their last four opponents Michigan State (51), Gonzaga (69), Michigan (44) and Buffalo (58) registered their lowest scoring output of the season.

Why Virginia Will Win

The Cavaliers lost just two games in the regular season with both being to the Blue Devils who most analysts would agree has the best talent in college basketball. They also suffered a loss in their ACC Conference tournament falling to the Seminoles, a team that is very long. Texas Tech certainly doesn't play small ball, but they don't hold a decided edge on Virginia.

Virginia vs Texas Tech Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games.
  • Under is 8-2 in UVA last 10 non-conference games.

Texas Tech vs. Virginia Prediction 04/08/2019

This should be a fantastic game. All season Virginia has been one of the top teams in the country, and Texas Tech is arguably playing the best ball right now of any team in the tournament. That said, I'm going to stay away from a side play and bank on getting the right side of this total. Both squads play outstanding defense which is reflected in a very low 117.5 total line, but I think it is still on the high side. When the No. 2 scoring defense of Michigan faced Texas Tech, and the third-ranked D they amassed 107 points. When Virginia and their No. 1 scoring defense took on Oregon and their 12th ranked D they combined for 102 points. I’ll look for more of the same tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 117.5

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