Virginia Cavaliers vs Oregon Ducks Pick

March 28, 9:57 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Virginia -8.5

Virginia may be a No. 1 seed for this NCAA tournament, but Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the country, heading into their South regional semifinal match Thursday night in Louisville (8:57 pm ET, TBS). The Cavaliers may also be solid favorites on the college basketball betting line, but they also know about getting upset. Which way are we betting this game with our free NCAA tournament pick?

The Line

NCAA tournament betting odds opened UVA at -7.5 over Oregon, with an over/under of 119. Early betting action then bumped that spread to -8.

Bettors thinking the Ducks might pull an upset here could get around +305 on the various basketball betting money lines.

Ducks-Cavs Betting Preview

No. 12 seed Oregon (25-12 SU, 22-15 ATS) only finished 10-8 in a weak Pac-12 Conference this season, but then won four games in four days to win the conference tournament. So the Ducks are a little lucky just to be in this NCAA tournament. But they've taken advantage of a good draw to reach this Sweet 16, beating inconsistent Wisconsin in the first round 72-54 and No. 13 seed UC Irvine last Sunday 73-54.

Oregon pulled away from the Badgers late to win outright as a two-point dog, then did the same thing against the Anteaters and covered as a five-point favorite.

The Ducks' winning streak, extending back to the last four games of the regular season, now sits at 10, and that includes a 10-0 run ATS.

No. 1 seed Virginia (31-3 SU, 24-10 ATS) tied for the ACC's regular-season title, going 16-2 in conference play. The Cavs then fell to Florida State in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. And Virginia looked terrible in its first-round NCAA tournament game against Gardner-Webb, bringing back awful memories of last March. But the Cavs came back to beat the Bulldogs 71-56, then stifled Oklahoma Sunday 63-51.

Virginia trailed G-W by 14 points in the first half, then led by 21 with three minutes to go, but came up short ATS at -23. The Cavaliers then led the Sooners by double digits for almost the entire second half and covered at -10.

So UVA is 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS over its last 12 games.

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 7-5 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
  • The Ducks are also 5-6 ATS this season as underdogs on the college basketball betting lines.
  • Virginia is 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS this season against teams that made this Dance.
  • The Cavs are also 9-3 ATS this season when favored by single digits.
  • The ACC is 10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS so far in this NCAA tournament.
  • The Pac-12 is 4-2 both SU and ATS in this Dance.

Ducks-Cavs Recent History

These programs met back-to-back season back in 2010-2011, Virginia winning both games by scores of 63-48 and 67-54. The players, of course, are long gone, but both head coaches remain.

Totals Report

The unders are a lopsided 24-12 in Oregon games this season, and 7-2-1 over its last 10 games, in part because the Ducks have held eight of their last 10 foes to 54 points or less.

The unders are 19-15 in Virginia games this season.

The unders are 24-23-1 through the first two rounds of this NCAA tournament.

Virginia vs Oregon Prediction 03/28/2019

The Cavaliers are just a better all-around team than Oregon and own the better performance this season against quality opponents.

Free Pick: 
We're giving the points here with Virginia. -8.5