USC Trojans vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Odds & Pick Versus the Spread

March 30, 7:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
USC +9/Gonz -9

The Gonzaga Bulldogs continue their quest for a perfect season and a Final Four berth when they meet the upstart USC Trojans in the NCAA tournament West regional final Tuesday evening in Indianapolis. The Zags are the top overall seed in this Big Dance and playing like it, covering three large spreads so far. The Trojans, meanwhile, are playing their best ball of this season, winning their three tournament games easily while the shooting the hell out of the ball. Gonzaga is only favored by single-digits for this game, which is unusual for this team this season. How are we playing this game with our free NCAA tournament college basketball pick?

NCAA Tournament Basketball Betting Odds

The NCAA tournament college basketball betting market opened Gonzaga at -9 over USC, with an over/under of right around 155. Early betting action then dipped that total to 154. According to Sagarin's ratings at, the Zags should be favored by 8.5 points for this game.

USC vs. Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

The Trojans reached this West regional final by beating Pac-12 rival Oregon in the regional semifinal Sunday night 82-68. USC spotted Oregon the first five points of the game, then later used a 17-2 run to lead 41-26 into halftime. The Trojans pushed their advantage to 64-43 midway through the second half, let the Ducks get within 69-60 with four minutes left but put things away from there for the easier-than-anticipated victory and an easy cover as 2.5-point favorites. Southern Cal shot 57 percent from the floor Sunday and hit 10/17 from 3-point land while holding Oregon to just 38 percent FG shooting.

So the Trojans are now one more win away from their first Final Four berth since 1954! USC opened this NCAA tournament with a 72-56 victory over Drake, covering at -7.5, then conquered Kansas 85-51, covering at -1.5. Gonzaga, meanwhile, reached this regional final by beating Creighton Sunday 83-65. The Bulldogs led 9-2 early, let the Blue Jays get within 27-25 but led 43-33 at the half. Gonzaga then pulled away from there, later leading by 27, on its way toward the victory and the money as a 13-point favorite.

The Zags shot a shade under 60 percent from the field Sunday, held Creighton to just 41 percent shooting, and out-rebounded the BlueJays 35-28.

So Gonzaga is now one more win away from its second Final Four appearance in the last four NCAA tournaments.

The Zags opened this Dance with a 98-55 rout of Norfolk State, covering at -33, then beat Oklahoma 87-71, covering at -15.5.

NCAA Tournament Basketball Betting Trends

  • Through Sunday, favorites are 37-22 SU, 27-32 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
  • Through Sunday, higher seeds are 37-18 SU, 28-27 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
  • Gonzaga is 3-1 ATS this season when favored by single digits.
  • USC is 2-3 ATS this season as an underdog.
  • Gonzaga is 10-0 SU, 6-2-2 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
  • USC is 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS against teams that made this Dance.

Totals Report

Overs are 17-14 in Trojans games this season, which are averaging 138 total points. Overs are 15-14 in Zags games this season, which are averaging 162 points. Unders are 35-24 through Sunday's play in this NCAA tournament, and three games that played over needed overtime to do it. So Under is in reality (based on 40 minutes play) 38-21 in this Big Dance.

USC vs. Gonzaga Prediction ATS

Gonzaga is basically a semi-pro basketball team, rolling through the college ranks; 28 of its 29 wins this season have come by double-digits. Meanwhile, USC is shooting 55 percent from the floor in this NCAA tournament, but we have serious doubts the Trojans will shoot anywhere close to that Tuesday night. This probably won't be a 20-point game, but ten would do it. We're giving the points here with the Zags. 

Free Pick: 
Take Gonzaga -9