Providence Friars at Xavier Musketeers Betting Odds & Free Pick

February 1, 6:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Prov +3.5/Xav -3.5

The Big East Conference offers up what should be a dandy when 17-5 Providence takes on 17-5 Xavier Wednesday night in Cincinnati. These teams are tied for first place in the Big East and well on their way toward NCAA tournament bids. But the Musketeers will play for a while now without one of their key players. How are we playing this game with our free Prov/Xav pick?

Providence-Xavier College Basketball Betting Odds

Tuesday’s CBB betting lines opened Xavier as a three-point favorite, with an over/under of right around 154. Early betting action then edged the Musketeers to -3.5 and dropped that total to 152. According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings, Xavier should be favored by 3.5 points for this match-up. How ‘bout that?

Providence-Xavier College Basketball Betting Preview

The Friars ride a three-game winning streak into Wednesday night following their 70-65 victory over Villanova last Sunday. Providence trailed the Wildcats almost the entire first three-quarters of the game and by seven points with midway through the second half. But a 22-9 run gave the Friars the lead for good, and they hung on from there for the win and the cover as one-point favorites. Providence shot 50 percent from the floor Sunday and held Villanova to 43 percent shooting. Two games ago, the Friars shot 56 percent from the floor, beat Butler 79-58, and covered at -10. And three games ago, they shot 43 percent from 3-point range, beat DePaul 75-64, and covered at -9. Stretching back longer, Providence is 12-2 both SU and ATS over its last 14 games, the only losses coming at Creighton by six points and at Marquette by eight points. The Musketeers, meanwhile, are coming off an 84-67 loss of their own at Creighton last Saturday. That game was tied at 19-19 early, but Xavier went cold and trailed 42-28 at the half. The Musketeers pulled to within 55-49 midway through the second half but faded from there and came up empty ATS as five-point dogs. Xavier shot 48 percent from the field Sunday but allowed the Bluejays to shoot a hot 57 percent and got out-rebounded 33-26. The Musketeers won 11 games in a row into mid-January, but they’re only 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS their last four times out. Bigger-picture, at 9-2 in conference play, Providence and Xavier are part of a three-way tie for first place in the Big East with Marquette. On the injury front, Xavier will be without F Zach Freemantle (15 points, eight boards per game this season), who is dealing with a bad foot.

Providence-Xavier Recent History

The Friars are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over the last five meetings with the Musketeers. Last year Providence swept two games from Xavier by scores of 65-62 and 99-92 in overtime.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played seven common opponents so far this season; Seton Hall, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn, DePaul, Villanova, and Creighton. The Friars played those foes to 7-2 both SU and ATS and +4 points per game, the Musketeers to 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, and +2 PPG.

College Basketball Betting Trends

Providence is 5-4 ATS this season as an underdog.

Totals Report

The Unders are 12-10 in Friars games this season and are averaging 146 total points. The Overs are 15-6 in Musketeers games this season, which are averaging 159 points. The Overs are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these two teams.

Providence Friars at Xavier Musketeers Prediction 2/1/23

We like the Friars here, plus the points. Providence comes in hot, shooting better than 50 percent from the field over its last three games. The Friars are also the better defensive team in this match-up. Xavier, meanwhile, is without its leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. Also, Providence owns the upper hand in the recent rivalry with the Musketeers.
Free Pick: 
Take Providence +3.5