Penn State vs. Michigan State Free Pick - Odds Analysis

Penn State vs. Michigan State Free Pick - Odds Analysis

Rich Crew
Date: January 31, 6:30 pm
Location: Breslin Center
TV: FSN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Michigan -12.5
Total: 142.5

<p>
The 5th ranked Michigan State Spartans (20-3) host the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-8) in a Big 10 game at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan on January 31, 2018, at 6:30 PM ET. Michigan State is the 12.5-point home favorites with a total line offered up at 142.5 points on most betting boards.
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<p>
In their last game, Penn State hosted Rutgers and came away with a 60-43 victory. The 17-point margin in the win gave them the point spread cover, and the lack of scoring by both clubs had UNDER bettors cashing at their tickets. Tony Carr was the high scorer for the Nittany Lions with 16 points on 6/13 shooting, and teammate Mike Watkins had a double-double picking up 15 points and 19 rebounds. Issa Thiam was the top scorer for the Scarlet Knights with 12 points on 5/12 shooting, and he was the only player on the team that scored in double figures. Penn State outscored Rutgers by 12 points in the 2nd half to give them the easy win. For the game, they shot a mediocre 43.6% from the floor while holding the Scarlet Knights to a feeble 31.4% shooting. Penn State has won two in a row, including beating a ranked Ohio State team on the road. Overall in conference action, they're 5-5 with a 2-3 record both straight up and against the spread as a visitor in those games.
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<p>
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<p>
Michigan State traveled to Maryland in their latest where they picked up a 74-68 win over the Terrapins. The six-point victory resulted in a PUSH for bettors and the 142 points put up on the board fell short of the 146 line making the UNDER the winning bet. In the contest, Joshua Langford was the top scorer for the Spartans with 19 points on 6/15 shooting and four of five starters for the team scored at least 11 points. Kevin Huerter was the high scorer for the Terrapins with 17 points on 4/9 shot. After a sluggish first half by MSU which put them on the wrong end of a 37-24 score, Michigan State outscored Maryland by 19 points in the 2nd half to get the "W." The shooting was the issue for the team recording 39.7% from the floor and 23.8% from three-point land. The Terrapins had a 42.9 FG% and were 41.2% from behind the arc but lost the battle on the boards. The Spartans have won four in a row and currently hold 3rd place in the Big 10 with an 8-2 record.
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<p>
Penn State ranks 114th in the nation in ppg and 54th in opponents’ ppg, and Michigan State ranks 19th in ppg and 20th in opponents’ ppg.
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<p>
This is the first game between these teams this season, and last season Penn State beat Michigan State at home and then lost to them in the conference tournament.
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<p>
This season Penn State is 9-9-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-11 and Michigan State is 13-9-1 ATS with an O/U record of 13-9.
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<h2>
SAGARIN RATINGS<br />
</h2>
<p>
Penn State: 82.30<br />
Michigan State: 92.28
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<h3>
INJURY REPORT<br />
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<p>
<b>PENN STATE </b>
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<p>
NONE
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<p>
<b>MICHIGAN STATE</b>
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<p>
[G] 11/08/2017 - Kyle Ahrens is out indefinitely ( Foot )
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<h2>
Penn State at Michigan NCAAB Key Betting Trends<br />
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<ul>
<li>
PSU is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games
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<li>
PSU is 1-4 ATS in their previous five games after a straight up win
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<li>
PSU has an Over record of 6-2 in their last eight games
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<li>
MSU is 21-7 ATS in their previous 28 home games
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<li>
MSU is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record
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<li>
MSU has an Over record of 9-4 in their last 13 games
</li>
</ul>
<h2>
PSU vs. MSU Betting Angles<br />
</h2>
<p>
Michigan State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Penn State.
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<p>
Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against Penn State.
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<p>
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games between these teams.
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<p>
The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between these teams.
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<p>
In the last nine games between these teams at Michigan State, the Over record is 7-2.
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Penn State at Michigan St. Prediction 1/31/2018

PSU has averaged a decent 72 points per game in their 10 Big Ten matches this season, and if you took that as a realistic projection for this game, you would be amiss. The Nittany Lions put up 82 points shooting a ridiculous 78.6% from downtown against the Buckeyes something that they may not repeat in your lifetime. The Ohio State game aside, in regulation time Penn State has scored 60, 61, 74 and 65 in their last five games. MSU has averaged 91 PPG this season, but that average drops nearly 14 points in conference games to 77.3. PSU has played OK defensively holding all but OSU to 75 or fewer points and can hold the Spartans to a number in the low 70 range.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 143.5 (RC)
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