Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers Pick

March 22, 4:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Wisconsin -2

The Pac-12's tournament champion meets up with the fourth-place team out of the Big Ten when

Oregon plays Wisconsin in an NCAA tournament South regional match Friday afternoon in San Jose (4:30 pm ET, TBS). The Badgers are seeded seven spots higher than the Ducks, but they're favored by less than a bucket. Who are we going with here for our free NCAA tournament pick?

The Line

The NCAA tournament betting odds opened Wisconsin at -1.5 over Oregon, with an over/under of 118. As of Tuesday afternoon, following some fluctuation, the spread again sat at -1.5, while the total dipped to 117.

Ducks-Badgers Betting Preview

No. 12 seed Oregon (23-12 SU, 20-15 ATS) won its last four regular-season games to finish 10-8 in a Pac-12 that sends just three teams to this NCAA tournament. The Ducks then won four games in four days, capped off by a 68-48 victory over regular-season Pac-12 champion Washington Sunday, to win the conference tournament. So Oregon is back in the Big Dance after missing out last season.

No. 5 seed Wisconsin (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) won five of its last six games to finish 14-6 in a Big Ten that sends eight teams to this NCAA tournament. The Badgers then beat Nebraska in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament before falling to a hot Michigan State outfit 67-55 in the semifinals. So Wisconsin is back in the NCAA tournament after also missing out last season.

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 5-5 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament, with two victories over both Washington and Arizona State and one over Syracuse. But in probably their toughest game of the season the Ducks fell down by 20 at Houston back in December before rallying late to make the final score (65-61) more respectable.
  • Wisconsin is 7-8 both SU and ATS against teams that made the Dance this season, with wins over Michigan and Maryland and tough losses to ACC regular-season co-champion Virginia, Marquette, Maryland, and Michigan.

Oregon-Wisconsin History

This is the third NCAA tournament meeting between these two programs over the last five seasons. Back in 2014, the Badgers rallied from a 12-point halftime deficit to beat the Ducks 85-77 in a second-round game, and the following season Wisconsin beat Oregon again in the second round 72-65.

Neither team includes any players from those two games, and the Badgers have a new coach. But those games were close, and this one should be, too.

Totals Report

The unders are a lopsided 24-11 in Oregon games this season, which are averaging 133 total points. The unders are also 12-2 over the Ducks' last 14 games, as they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to 62 points or less.

The unders are 18-14 in Wisconsin games this season, which are averaging 131 points.

Oregon vs Wisconsin Pick 03/22/2019

Oregon is hot, playing great defense. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is inconsistent, and one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country.

Free Pick: 
Take the Ducks +2