North Carolina vs. Kansas Title Game Odds & Pick ATS

April 4, 9:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
NC+4/Kan -4

Two of the bluest bloods in college basketball cap off this 2021-22 NCAA basketball season when North Carolina battles Kansas in the national championship game Monday night in New Orleans. The Tar Heels are already six-time national champs while the Jayhawks are three-time champions; they've also combined to win four of the last 17 NCAA tournament titles.

Kansas is favored by a couple of buckets for this contest; which way are we going with our free NCAA tournament betting pick?

NCAA Tournament National Championship Betting Odds

The national championship betting odds opened Kansas as a 4.5-point favorite over North Carolina, with an over/under of right around 152.5. Early betting action then dipped that line to -4 and that total to 152.

According to Sagarin's CBB ratings at, the Jayhawks should be favored by 5.5 points for this match-up.

North Carolina-Kansas National Championship Betting Preview

The Tar Heels, the No. 8 seed out of the West Region in this NCAA tournament, reached this national championship game by beating rival Duke in a national semi-final Saturday, 81-77. Neither team ever led by more than seven points Saturday, and North Carolina trailed by one with 1:24 left. But the Heels used a 5-0 spurt to take the lead for good and iced the victory with a couple of free throws in the last 10 seconds.

North Carolina only shot 42 percent from the field Saturday but held Duke to just under 42 percent FG shooting and won the battle on the glass 50-41.

The Tar Heels opened this tournament with a 95-63 romp over Marquette, covering at -4, then outlasted defending national champion Baylor 93-86 in overtime, then beat UCLA 73-66, then stuffed St. Peter's 69-49, covering at -8.5.

So stretching back into the regular season, Carolina is 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS over its last 12 games. The Tar Heels are also now 9-7, both SU and ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks reached this national championship game by beating shorthanded Villanova Saturday 81-65. Kansas, the No. 1 seed out of the Midwest, scored the first seven points of the game, led by as many as 19 in the first half and 40-29 into the locker room. The Jayhawks later let the Wildcats get within six points with six minutes left but re-applied the gas and pulled away from there for the victory and the cover at -4.

Kansas shot 54 percent from the floor Saturday, hit 13/24 from 3-point land, held Villanova to just 39 percent FG shooting, and won the battle on the boards 35-29.

The Jayhawks opened this NCAA tournament with an 83-56 romp over Texas Southern, covering at -21.5, then beat Creighton 79-72 although they came up short ATS at -13.5, then beat Providence 66-61 but lost ATS at -7, then beat Miami 76-50, cashing at -5.5.

Stretching back into the regular season, Kansas is 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS over its last ten games. The Jayhawks are also now 14-5 SU, although only 9-10 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.

On the injury front, North Carolina F Armando Bacot (17 points, 12.5 rebounds per game this season) turned an ankle in Saturday's game, finished but is listed as questionable for Monday night. He'll play, but we wonder if he'll be limited.

These two college basketball blue bloods last met nine seasons ago in the second round of the NCAA tournament, a 70-58 Kansas victory.

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

  • So far in this NCAA tournament, the favorites are 43-22 SU and 30-35 ATS.
  • So far in this NCAA tournament, higher seeds are 40-22 SU and 27-35 ATS.
  • The Big 12 is 12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS this NCAA tournament.
  • The ACC is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS this NCAA tournament.
  • The ACC and Big 12 have split six meetings, both SU and ATS, in this NCAA tournament.

Totals Report

The overs are 22-15 in Tar Heels games this season, which are averaging 151 total points.

The overs are 21-18 in Jayhawks games this season, which are averaging 147 points.

The Unders is 35-31 in this NCAA tournament.

Tar Heels vs. Jayhawks Prediction ATS 4/4/22

Kansas had the easier time of it Saturday, leading its game by double-digits most of the way, while North Carolina is coming off a huge emotional effort against Duke. Which, in our minds, leaves the Heels susceptible to a letdown. Also, the Jayhawks are the better defensive team and much less reliant on the 3-pointer than the Tar Heels, which in our books, in a game like this, is a positive. So we're betting Kansas here, minus the points. 

Free Pick: 
Take Kansas -4