Morehead State Eagles at Samford Bulldogs Pick - Odds and NCAAB Predictions

December 13, 7:30 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Samford -8.5

The Morehead State Eagles (3-6) and the Samford Bulldogs (8-2) will square off in an Ohio Valley Conference versus Southern Conference collision on Thursday, December 13th, 2018 with a tip-off time of 7:30 PM ET. The contest will be available for streaming on ESPN+. Samford and Morehead State have never met in a decade, but nevertheless, the Eagles have won the last three meetings dating between 2007 to 2008. The most recent occurrence took place in February of 2008 where Morehead State orchestrated a 64-58 upset of Samford as a 2.5-point underdog.

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Morehead State at Samford Overview

Morehead State Eagles

The Eagles come into this contest on the heels of a 76-64 loss at Marshall three days ago where the Eagles fostered a push as a 12-point underdog. Overall, Morehead State has not been kind to bettors as of late as they have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four markets.

Samford Bulldogs

The Bulldogs enter in overall excellent form, most recently dismantling Alabama A&M on the road four days ago by a score of 77-59. The victory fostered yet another cover for the Bulldogs who were 13-point chalk in the aforementioned affair allowing Samford to stay flawless against the spread this year at 9-0.

Reasons To Back Morehead State

According to KenPom, while the Eagles have a less captivating record than their counterparts they have also played a far tougher schedule. Citing the Strength of Schedule metric, the Eagles have played the 55th toughest docket in America while Samford has played a far contrasting itinerary of cupcakes with the 343rd ranked schedule. Morehead State is the more battle-tested team, and this will undoubtedly be a factor in this contest. Furthermore, Morehead State commits fewer turnovers compared to Samford which is instrumental in a game where they are classed as a significant underdog.

Reasons To Avoid Samford

Buying low and selling high is a practice that we preach. The current forms of both teams and their overall performance record pushes action away from Morehead State and entices takers to get on board with Samford. However, given Samford's profitability as a perfect team against the spread, those eager to place their money on the Bulldogs will only subject themselves to an overlay while they do so. This propensity is heightened by the fact that Samford stands at 5-1 SU at home while Morehead State has yet to win a game on the road this year.

Morehead State at Samford Prediction 12/13/2018

An upset here is not out of the question given all the variables that come into the mix. However, in this predicament we are not looking for a win just a cover and chances are there are more points than we need to work with. Morehead State has played "bigger and badder" in far more hostile environments (Syracuse and UConn) this year, and this will be the difference maker in what will be a closer game than the line indicates.

Free Pick: 
Take Morehead State +8.5
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