LSU vs. Michigan Point Spread Pick

March 22, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
LSU +5.5/Mich -5.5

Top-seeded Michigan, down a key man, should have a challenge on its hands when its meets up with 8th-seeded Louisiana State for an NCAA tournament second-round match-up Monday night in Indianapolis. The Wolverines are a solid betting play on the season but the lines might be catching up to them. How are we playing the game with our free NCAA tournament college basketball pick?

NCAA Tournament Basketball Betting Odds

The NCAA tournament college basketball betting market opened Michigan at -5 for this game, with an over/under of 147. Early betting action then bumped the spread to 5.5 and the total to 149. According to Sagarin's ratings at the Wolverines should be favored by five points here.

LSU vs. Michigan NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

The Tigers reached this second-round match by beating St. Bonaventure in the first round Saturday 76-61. LSU actually trailed that game 4-2 eight minutes in but picked up the pace and led 31-22 by the half. The Tigers then scored the first seven points out of the locker room and basically cruised from there for the victory and the easy cover as two-point favorites. Also, thanks to that brutally slow start by both teams, that game stayed under a total of 145. LSU only shot 40 percent from the field Saturday but held the Bonnies to just 33 percent FG shooting. The Tigers also hit 18/22 free-throws and won the battle on the boards 49-30. Louisiana State finished 11-6 in an SEC this season that sent six teams to the NCAA tournament. The Tigers then beat Ole Miss and Arkansas in the SEC tournament before losing to Alabama in the championship game 80-79 on a missed put-back at the buzzer. LSU is 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS over its last six games. The Wolverines, meanwhile, advanced to this second round by topping Texas Southern Saturday 82-66. Michigan, playing without injured F Isaiah Livers, grabbed a double-digit lead 15 minutes in and held it from there. The Wolverines' biggest lead came at 55-31 with 15 minutes left in the game but they took their foot off the gas and came up short of covering at -24.5. Also, that game played over a total of 142 in garbage time. Michigan shot 48 percent from the floor Saturday, held TSU to just 36 percent FG shooting and won the battle on the glass 38-28. Michigan played 14-3 in a Big Ten this season that sent nine teams to this Big Dance. The Wolverines then beat Maryland in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament before losing to Ohio State in the semifinals 68-67. But Michigan is also only 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS over its last six games. As mentioned above the Wolverines are playing without Livers (14 points, six boards PG this season), who's gone with a broken foot. And sooner or later you'd figure his absence would be felt. Sagarin ranks the Big Ten as the toughest conference in the country this season, with the SEC coming in at No. 4. Sagarin's ratings also rank Michigan's schedule at No. 17, LSU's at No. 41.

NCAA Basketball Betting Trends

  • Through the first three days of this NCAA tournament favorites played 21-14 SU but just 13-22 ATS.
  • Through the first three days of this NCAA tournament higher seeds played 21-10 SU, 14-17 ATS.
  • Including Saturday's win/cover LSU is 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
  • Including its first-round win/non-cover Michigan is 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS against teams that made this Dance.

Totals Report

Overs are 16-11 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 158 total points. Unders are 15-10 in Wolverines games this season, which are averaging 142 points. Unders played 22-13 through the first three days of this NCAA tournament.

LSU vs. Michigan Tourmnament Predictions

LSU's playing some good ball lately while Michigan's down a man. And the Big Ten's already suffered some key losses in this tournament. Is it overrated? Our guess is the Wolverines win a close game here but the Tigers have a great chance at an upset. We like LSU and the points.
Free Pick: 
Take LSU