Iowa State Cyclones vs. Miami Hurricanes Odds & Free Pick

March 25, 9:59 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
ISU +2.5/Miami -2.5

Iowa State last reached a regional final back in 2000, while Miami has never advanced past the Sweet 16. One of these programs will take that step when the Cyclones and Hurricanes blow into Chicago to play a Midwest Region semi-final Friday night. Miami, the fourth-place team in the ACC this season, is favored by a big bucket over Iowa State, which placed seventh in a tough Big 12. Which way are we going with our free NCAA tournament college basketball betting pick?

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

The Sweet 16 betting lines opened Miami as a one-point favorite over Iowa State, with an over/under of around 134. Early betting action then bumped the Hurricanes to -2.5 and dipped that total to 133. According to Sagarin's CBB ratings at, this game should be lined as a pick 'em.

Iowa State-Miami NCAA Tournament Betting Preview

The Cyclones reached this Sweet 16 match-up by beating Wisconsin in a second-round game last Sunday 54-49. Iowa State trailed the Badgers 22-19 late in the first half when Wisconsin lost its starting PG to injury. The Cyclones then spurted to a 27-26 halftime lead, then basically controlled the second half, once leading by 10, on their way toward the outright victory as four-point underdogs. ISU only shot 35 percent from the field last Sunday but held the Badgers to just 30 percent FG shooting, out-rebounded Wisconsin 39-36, and won the turnover battle 17-14. The Cyclones opened this NCAA tournament with a 59-54 win over LSU, taking that game outright as three-point dogs. Iowa State ended its regular season with back-to-back losses, then lost its first game in the Big 12 Conference tournament. Actually, since starting this season 12-0, the Cyclones are only 10-12 SU, 11-11 ATS over their last 22 games. ISU is also now 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, reached this Sweet 16 round by beating Auburn in a second-round bout last Sunday 79-61. Miami, playing as a six-point dog, led the Tigers 33-32 at the half, then used a 15-7 run out of the locker room to go up by nine. The 'Canes then pulled away from there for the outright win while getting +250 on the money line. Miami shot 49 percent from the floor Sunday, held Auburn to just 30 percent shooting, and won the turnover battle 13-4. The Hurricanes opened this NCAA tournament with a 68-66 win over USC. So stretching back into the regular season, Miami is 9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS over its last 12 games. The 'Canes are also now 5-4 SU, 6-2-1 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament. These teams last met in an early-season tournament six years ago in Florida, a 73-56 Iowa State win.

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

  • The favorites are 36-15 SU but only 24-27 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
  • The higher seeds are 32-16 SU but only 20-28 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
  • The ACC is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
  • The Big 12 is 9-3, both SU and ATS in this NCAA tournament.

Totals Report

The unders are 19-15 in Cyclones games this season, which are averaging 130 total points. The overs are 20-15 in Hurricanes games this season, which are averaging 146 points. Into Thursday's action, the overs are 28-24 in this NCAA tournament.

Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction ATS 3/25/22

Miami owns the edge on offense in this match-up, but Iowa State owns the edge on defense. And we love betting on the better defenses. Also, the Cyclones played a tougher schedule than the Hurricanes this season. Finally, this game looks destined to go down to a last possession, maybe in overtime, and 2.5 points might actually be a lot. We're taking the points with Iowa State.          

Free Pick: 
Take Iowa State +2.5