College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
Whether you're looking for free NCAA basketball picks to bet or want to see which side other bettors are on, SBS should be one of your daily destinations. Our team of analysts offer up previews on some of the top games on the college basketball board. If you prefer a condensed version of key betting trends, ratings and historical spread numbers with the analysis to help you improve your bankroll we have you covered. If you're looking for experienced prognosticators who have a proven history of profitable selections you'll feel confident knowing that our lead handicapper Rich Crew is one of the best in the industry. Crew brings with him a decade of winning in college basketball and football so if you're looking to tail a handicapper's picks free or paid you can't go wrong with this expert capper. It doesn't end with Rich. We also have David Schwab offering up his analysis and predictions on a handful of college hoops games each week during the season. Schwab has started to make a name for himself in the betting world stringing together a few in the black seasons and we believe he will continue to improve over time. If you're looking for 80% handicappers you won't find that here or on any legitimate site. Most pros hit in the mid 50% range and we hope to do that or better. If you're looking for the "lock of the day", "game of the year" or "guaranteed to win" you won't find that here either. Anything can happen in a betting event so to make such a statement is ludicrous. What we can guarantee is that all the betting previews and game picks that appear here are free to our visitors and it's a "lock" that our team will do their best to make your college basketball season a winning one!
You never know what type of performance you're going to get from the Wolverines. They needed overtime to beat an undermanned Gophers team at home in their most recent and three games prior they gave the Boilermakers all they could handle on their home court! Northwestern returns from a successful three-game road trip where they went 2-1, but the loss did come by 11 to Michigan. I'm going to back the visitor here.The Wolverines flat performance in their latest should have them entirely focused on this game, and statistically, they hold the edge in most metrics. Go Blue.
Michigan State hasn’t been extending the margin on the road in conference games beating only Illinois (87 -74) by double digits in their five games. That's not to say that Iowa offers excellent value. The Hawkeyes shooting was abysmal in their latest against the Nittany Lions, and that's probably not a good sign going into a game against the No. 1 ranked team in defensive FG percentage. I have this game in the mid 140's.
The Sooners are just 2-4 in their last six games, but both wins did come at home where they’re a perfect 11-0 this season and 5-0 Big 12 action. The Mountaineers broke off a three-game losing streak with their win over Kansas State but have lost three straight, and while they are 2-3 on the road in conference action, their wins have come against lesser teams. Look for Oklahoma guard Trae Young to dominate here.
On the road, in conference games, the Badgers are 1-5 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. Their ATS mark on the road in Big Ten games isn’t terrible at first glance, but the point spread covers came on December 4th against Penn State and in a 15-point loss as a 17-point underdog against Michigan State. Wisconsin has lost it’s last three road games by 15, 18 and 28 points and face a team that has two losses at home this season. Maryland is also a moneymaker as a host is in Big Ten games registering a 3-1-1 record versus the betting line with the loss and push coming against top rivals Purdue and Michigan State. The line is a little high for my liking, but the Terrapins last two home wins were by 11 over the Gophers and 18 over the Hawkeyes, so I’m willing to go light on the home side.
The Trojans have road their superior defensive play to six straight victories. Over the winning streak, USC held each opponent to below their season average and can keep the Bruins scorers in check today. UCLA like most teams hold visitors to a lower scoring average then they do on the road, and that has been the primary factor in four of the last five home games coming in under the total.
Michigan State holds most of the edges in this game, especially on defense. Offensively the Spartans have averaged 71.7 points per game in their four conference road contests and allowed 68.5 PPG. They take on an Indiana team that has failed to surpass 71 points in their last six games and has averaged 64.4 over their previous five. The Hoosiers underperforming offense has them on an O/U run of 0-5-1, and I believe that continues tonight.
When comparing the second edition of this rivalry from a betting perspective to the first chapter this season, the value is actually on the Under. In the previous meeting, there were 130 total points scored with the closing market hovering around 144. Now, a steam move has pushed this market up with an additional point to spot. This situation has all the makings for Louisiana-Lafayette to rout Louisiana-Monroe yet again, regardless of the location of venue. The margin of victory in the previous meeting was 32 points and now ULL is being asked to spot five less points than it did in January.
However, the public is all over the Ragin Cajuns against the spread in this spot so therefore we will stay off as this could be a potential let-down scenario. As a result, we make an Over/Under play where we can take advantage of a friendly number. Therefore, we will pass on taking a side here and simply recommend booking the Under 145.
The Utes are on an impressive roll winning three of their last four games with the lone loss being by one-point. That defeat came on the road against Arizona who leads the PAC-12 standings and is a perfect 12-0 at home this season. Utah guard Sedrick Barefield has picked his game up big time in his recent road games. The Buffaloes struggle against teams with good guard play, so look for him to be a difference maker tonight. Colorado has been good at home, going 8-2 overall and 3-1 in conference games including a close victory over Arizona, but their recent play has been lackluster.
The difference in wins and losses on the season is what is fueling the public fervor in this market for Canisius. However, the spot that Canisius enters into can be a troublesome one. Marist’s road win at Manhattan on Tuesday likely lit a fire under the tail of the Red Foxes. When this is complemented by Canisius coming in off a long rest after suffering a nasty loss at home, the Golden Griffins could be primed to come in flat and let the Red Foxes hang around. This could be extremely perilous given the fact Marist will be on its our court with its supporters in the face of the Golden Griffins. The better team may player the lessor game, we’ll take advantage of the inflated points.
We stress the importance of home court advantage in the college hoops game. For Austin Peay, travelling away from home is a very arduous task. Thus, despite the Governors owning a far better record than Tennessee-Martin they are priced as a small favorite. This resonates with us given the fact the Governors have won their last two contests by convincing margins. The details reveal that the market has little faith Austin Peay can sustain their success in a less accommodating environment. What this sets up is a prime fade target. Once again, we will go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Tennessee-Martin on the Money Line is the play.
PSU has averaged a decent 72 points per game in their 10 Big Ten matches this season, and if you took that as a realistic projection for this game, you would be amiss. The Nittany Lions put up 82 points shooting a ridiculous 78.6% from downtown against the Buckeyes something that they may not repeat in your lifetime. The Ohio State game aside, in regulation time Penn State has scored 60, 61, 74 and 65 in their last five games. MSU has averaged 91 PPG this season, but that average drops nearly 14 points in conference games to 77.3. PSU has played OK defensively holding all but OSU to 75 or fewer points and can hold the Spartans to a number in the low 70 range.
The stock on Loyola-Chicago being through the ceiling has caused the Ramblers to be priced as a road favorite against a team that has yet to lose at home, this season. This is because they are the current favorite to represent the MVC in March Madness and also have had Bradley’s number as of late. What these circumstances produce is an opportunity for us to step in and take advantage of a value prop in a favorable spot. We’ll go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Bradley outright gets the nod.
The Buckeyes defensive weakness is the long ball, and the Hoosiers don’t have the shooters to light it up from behind the arc registering a 30.9% mark on the road this season. Indiana has held nine of their ten Big Ten opponents to 73 or fewer points. The Spartans were the only club to exceed that number using their height edge to their advantage something the Buckeyes don’t have.
Rivalry games produce the unexpected and as mentioned there are few teams that hate each other as much as the Dawgs and the Gators. These games often take on a life of their own and are comparable to a Final Four fixture for either side. The Dawgs are sick of being bullied by the Gators and this seems like the prime opportunity to put their recent slew of wins to an end. Florida comes in off an impressive win and that in itself sets up the Gators for a let-down in their follow-up. When you couple this with the Dawgs entering on a losing streak, the low hanging-fruit seems like a steal here. However, Georgia gets this one at home and in a feud as potent as this one that can affect the outcome of this contest. Albeit, the small number presented from the open would suggest that the Dawgs are in line to orchestrate an upset. Be that as it may, we get points to boot. Dawgs get the call.
The Jayhawks have allowed 80.2 points per game on the road in Big 12 games with three of their four opponents scoring 84 or greater points. KSU doesn’t light up the board in every game with case in point being their 56 points scored on 18 of 47 shooting. However, they were extremely sharp in their previous five games scoring 81.6 PPG on a 53.15 FG%. Defensively, at home they’ve been brilliant in recent games, holding their last three opponents to 51, 68, and 69 which was 15, 9.5 and 12.4 points respectively below their seasonal averages.
Boilermakers at Hoosiers Prediction 1/28/2018I'm not questioning Purdue's superiority, but Indiana is unbeaten at home in Big Ten matches this season. The Hoosiers home victories didn't come against top-flight teams, beating Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State, and Iowa, so I'm not going to call for an outright win, but I think that they can compete and stay within double digits. I'll side with home side here.
The Hawkeyes have scored 75.1 points per game in conference games, but that number is inflated by the 104 points scored in the overtime game against the Illini. Four Big Ten teams have held Iowa to fewer than 70 points, and that's where I think they fall today. The Cornhuskers are certainly not an offensive juggernaut relying on their defense to give them a chance to win, and that's precisely what it has done in conference games. Nebraska has scored 65.9 points in the ten games while allowing 65.1 and holding eight of their ten rivals to fewer than 70 points.
This fixture has been booked as an early-season clash of Southern Conference titans. Undoubtedly, this game will have an impact on the outcome of the regular season standings and eventual seeding in the Southern Conference standings. Whilst post-season tournaments are a season within themselves, the regular season can offer plenty of incentives and momentum if things go well. Wofford has seemed to be unstoppable at home this season, thus the number that we see on the table here resonates with us. When you couple the fact that Wofford has been riding a hot hand as of late, the figure almost seems to good to be true for those wishing to book the Terriers as a dog. However, as we have revealed recently Wofford has been the benefactors of good fortune. The Terriers remain the 3rd luckiest team in America whilst playing a 260th ranked strength of schedule according to KenPom. Given the low-hanging fruit this seems like a spot where a correction could come in and hand Wofford a loss in close games they have been on the beneficial side of all season long. When you toss in the fact, ETSU owns advantages in field goal percentage, defense, rebounding, and points per game…it seems like a certitude. Swallow the points.
The Badgers don’t come into this game on a roll having dropped four out of their last five straight up and against the spread, but I think that they can be competitive in this game. They've been hurt by their injuries at the guard position with both Kobe King and D’Mitrik Trice being out. Trice who has been out since December 6th has a chance to return tonight and that would be a massive boost for this team. Wisconsin obviously hasn't impressed over their last five contests, but they haven't been outmatched in all five crushing Illinois by 25 at home and playing Nebraska and Rutgers both tough in four-point losses. The Spartans haven't had a problem extending the margin at home, but for the most part, the recent competition has been weak, and I believe the linemaker is reaching here.