College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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Situational betting is a big part of our strategy. Therefore, fading a steam move particularly against an ascending Total can be quite profitable when the conditions are right. Missouri State owns the more physical unit in the rebounding department, turnovers, and bench. When it comes to defense well, Evansville averages just .1 fewer points per game compared to the counterparts. However, home court advantage resting with the Bears will allow Missouri State to dictate the ebb and flow of the game. Evansville has won just two games this year on the road and chances are the field goal percentage advantage that the Purple Aces own will be nullified here. What this sets up is a scenario where the Total is likely an overlay, and we will step in promptly and target a likely inflated number. We will go forth and ride the current trend in this conference series and back the Under.
The Gophers injury list is extensive, so I’m not sure they can compete in a shootout, and they may try to slow down the pace and make the Hoosiers earn every point. In the last meeting, earlier this season put up 71 at home with Guard Dupree McBrayer accounting for 18 of those points. He’s iffy for this game, likewise for G Amir Coffey and fellow guard Nate Mason can’t do it all on his own.
Indiana has been playing better defense as of late at home holding their opponent to 70 or fewer points in four of their last five.
The Bruins have lost three out of their four conference road games this season, but they were close deep into the Ducks and Beavers losses and were defeated by the Cardinal in overtime. Arizona is a big step up, but the improved form of UCLA and the host being overvalued by the lines maker this campaign, I believe they can stay within the allotted handicap.
Situational betting is a big part of our strategy. There are several contributing factors here that make the Keydets a quality play. First, the Catamounts have had many woes on the road this season. The away docket for Western Carolina is one that cannot justify WCU spotting any quantity points, in itself.
However, Western Carolina is also one of the luckiest teams in America according to KenPom. In fact, the Catamounts rank fifth overall in luck factor meaning that when games get close the bounces have a tendency to go to their way. This narrative will place a huge target on the Catamounts back. Moreover, VMI has a deeper bench, gives up less defensive rebounds than their opponents, and plays a better brand of defense. VMI opponents average 73.2 points per game whilst Western Carolina opposition has accumulated 75.3 points. When you combine all these variables, the Keydets can easily pull an upset in Staunton. Take the points.
The Buckeyes have averaged 76 points per game in conference games overall, but have averaged 68.6 over their last five as a visitor. Defensively they’ve been outstanding holding the opposition in those games to an average of 53.3 points and on the year over 12 games to Big Ten rivals 63.1 PPG. Purdue has scored 78.5 PPG, but I'm going to forecast a number in the high 60's for this game. The Boilermakers defense has been a strength allowing 65.4 PPG in their 12 conference matches and only the Wolverines have cleared 70 points at Mackey Arena.
These are the type of games that San Antonio not only has to win but win with some level dominance as it tries to keep its season on track. That could start on the defensive end of the court against a team the Spurs should be able to keep in check all night long. While I would lean towards San Antonio covering on the road, the ‘best bet' pick in this matchup is the UNDER on the total line.
In many consensus forums, the Patriots were a popular selection. Anytime the dog garners a lot of love and support from the public; we have to take a closer look by virtue of the fact that raises many red flags. Moreover, when we see a team with Fordham's body of work favored one cannot assume that this is simply a mistake.
The Rams own the better defense and commit lesser turnovers compared to the Patriots. Both of these narratives are instrumental in this affair as it can truly give the Rams a sense of home court advantage. One other key ingredient sticks out to us here, luck factor. According to KenPom, the Patriots are the 13th luckiest team in America when it comes to close games going their way. Given all the variables in this spot, this looks like an optimal spot to lay the points given the low-hanging fruit and environmental factors that favor Fordham.
You never know what type of performance you're going to get from the Wolverines. They needed overtime to beat an undermanned Gophers team at home in their most recent and three games prior they gave the Boilermakers all they could handle on their home court! Northwestern returns from a successful three-game road trip where they went 2-1, but the loss did come by 11 to Michigan. I'm going to back the visitor here.The Wolverines flat performance in their latest should have them entirely focused on this game, and statistically, they hold the edge in most metrics. Go Blue.
Michigan State hasn’t been extending the margin on the road in conference games beating only Illinois (87 -74) by double digits in their five games. That's not to say that Iowa offers excellent value. The Hawkeyes shooting was abysmal in their latest against the Nittany Lions, and that's probably not a good sign going into a game against the No. 1 ranked team in defensive FG percentage. I have this game in the mid 140's.
The Sooners are just 2-4 in their last six games, but both wins did come at home where they’re a perfect 11-0 this season and 5-0 Big 12 action. The Mountaineers broke off a three-game losing streak with their win over Kansas State but have lost three straight, and while they are 2-3 on the road in conference action, their wins have come against lesser teams. Look for Oklahoma guard Trae Young to dominate here.
On the road, in conference games, the Badgers are 1-5 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. Their ATS mark on the road in Big Ten games isn’t terrible at first glance, but the point spread covers came on December 4th against Penn State and in a 15-point loss as a 17-point underdog against Michigan State. Wisconsin has lost it’s last three road games by 15, 18 and 28 points and face a team that has two losses at home this season. Maryland is also a moneymaker as a host is in Big Ten games registering a 3-1-1 record versus the betting line with the loss and push coming against top rivals Purdue and Michigan State. The line is a little high for my liking, but the Terrapins last two home wins were by 11 over the Gophers and 18 over the Hawkeyes, so I’m willing to go light on the home side.
The Trojans have road their superior defensive play to six straight victories. Over the winning streak, USC held each opponent to below their season average and can keep the Bruins scorers in check today. UCLA like most teams hold visitors to a lower scoring average then they do on the road, and that has been the primary factor in four of the last five home games coming in under the total.
Michigan State holds most of the edges in this game, especially on defense. Offensively the Spartans have averaged 71.7 points per game in their four conference road contests and allowed 68.5 PPG. They take on an Indiana team that has failed to surpass 71 points in their last six games and has averaged 64.4 over their previous five. The Hoosiers underperforming offense has them on an O/U run of 0-5-1, and I believe that continues tonight.
When comparing the second edition of this rivalry from a betting perspective to the first chapter this season, the value is actually on the Under. In the previous meeting, there were 130 total points scored with the closing market hovering around 144. Now, a steam move has pushed this market up with an additional point to spot. This situation has all the makings for Louisiana-Lafayette to rout Louisiana-Monroe yet again, regardless of the location of venue. The margin of victory in the previous meeting was 32 points and now ULL is being asked to spot five less points than it did in January.
However, the public is all over the Ragin Cajuns against the spread in this spot so therefore we will stay off as this could be a potential let-down scenario. As a result, we make an Over/Under play where we can take advantage of a friendly number. Therefore, we will pass on taking a side here and simply recommend booking the Under 145.
The Utes are on an impressive roll winning three of their last four games with the lone loss being by one-point. That defeat came on the road against Arizona who leads the PAC-12 standings and is a perfect 12-0 at home this season. Utah guard Sedrick Barefield has picked his game up big time in his recent road games. The Buffaloes struggle against teams with good guard play, so look for him to be a difference maker tonight. Colorado has been good at home, going 8-2 overall and 3-1 in conference games including a close victory over Arizona, but their recent play has been lackluster.
The difference in wins and losses on the season is what is fueling the public fervor in this market for Canisius. However, the spot that Canisius enters into can be a troublesome one. Marist’s road win at Manhattan on Tuesday likely lit a fire under the tail of the Red Foxes. When this is complemented by Canisius coming in off a long rest after suffering a nasty loss at home, the Golden Griffins could be primed to come in flat and let the Red Foxes hang around. This could be extremely perilous given the fact Marist will be on its our court with its supporters in the face of the Golden Griffins. The better team may player the lessor game, we’ll take advantage of the inflated points.
We stress the importance of home court advantage in the college hoops game. For Austin Peay, travelling away from home is a very arduous task. Thus, despite the Governors owning a far better record than Tennessee-Martin they are priced as a small favorite. This resonates with us given the fact the Governors have won their last two contests by convincing margins. The details reveal that the market has little faith Austin Peay can sustain their success in a less accommodating environment. What this sets up is a prime fade target. Once again, we will go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Tennessee-Martin on the Money Line is the play.
PSU has averaged a decent 72 points per game in their 10 Big Ten matches this season, and if you took that as a realistic projection for this game, you would be amiss. The Nittany Lions put up 82 points shooting a ridiculous 78.6% from downtown against the Buckeyes something that they may not repeat in your lifetime. The Ohio State game aside, in regulation time Penn State has scored 60, 61, 74 and 65 in their last five games. MSU has averaged 91 PPG this season, but that average drops nearly 14 points in conference games to 77.3. PSU has played OK defensively holding all but OSU to 75 or fewer points and can hold the Spartans to a number in the low 70 range.
The stock on Loyola-Chicago being through the ceiling has caused the Ramblers to be priced as a road favorite against a team that has yet to lose at home, this season. This is because they are the current favorite to represent the MVC in March Madness and also have had Bradley’s number as of late. What these circumstances produce is an opportunity for us to step in and take advantage of a value prop in a favorable spot. We’ll go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Bradley outright gets the nod.