College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
Whether you're looking for free NCAA basketball picks to bet or want to see which side other bettors are on, SBS should be one of your daily destinations. Our team of analysts offer up previews on some of the top games on the college basketball board. If you prefer a condensed version of key betting trends, ratings and historical spread numbers with the analysis to help you improve your bankroll we have you covered. If you're looking for experienced prognosticators who have a proven history of profitable selections you'll feel confident knowing that our lead handicapper Rich Crew is one of the best in the industry. Crew brings with him a decade of winning in college basketball and football so if you're looking to tail a handicapper's picks free or paid you can't go wrong with this expert capper. It doesn't end with Rich. We also have David Schwab offering up his analysis and predictions on a handful of college hoops games each week during the season. Schwab has started to make a name for himself in the betting world stringing together a few in the black seasons and we believe he will continue to improve over time. If you're looking for 80% handicappers you won't find that here or on any legitimate site. Most pros hit in the mid 50% range and we hope to do that or better. If you're looking for the "lock of the day", "game of the year" or "guaranteed to win" you won't find that here either. Anything can happen in a betting event so to make such a statement is ludicrous. What we can guarantee is that all the betting previews and game picks that appear here are free to our visitors and it's a "lock" that our team will do their best to make your college basketball season a winning one!
We stress the importance of home court advantage in the college hoops game. For Austin Peay, travelling away from home is a very arduous task. Thus, despite the Governors owning a far better record than Tennessee-Martin they are priced as a small favorite. This resonates with us given the fact the Governors have won their last two contests by convincing margins. The details reveal that the market has little faith Austin Peay can sustain their success in a less accommodating environment. What this sets up is a prime fade target. Once again, we will go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Tennessee-Martin on the Money Line is the play.
PSU has averaged a decent 72 points per game in their 10 Big Ten matches this season, and if you took that as a realistic projection for this game, you would be amiss. The Nittany Lions put up 82 points shooting a ridiculous 78.6% from downtown against the Buckeyes something that they may not repeat in your lifetime. The Ohio State game aside, in regulation time Penn State has scored 60, 61, 74 and 65 in their last five games. MSU has averaged 91 PPG this season, but that average drops nearly 14 points in conference games to 77.3. PSU has played OK defensively holding all but OSU to 75 or fewer points and can hold the Spartans to a number in the low 70 range.
The stock on Loyola-Chicago being through the ceiling has caused the Ramblers to be priced as a road favorite against a team that has yet to lose at home, this season. This is because they are the current favorite to represent the MVC in March Madness and also have had Bradley’s number as of late. What these circumstances produce is an opportunity for us to step in and take advantage of a value prop in a favorable spot. We’ll go ahead and trade the bucket to reduce the vig. Bradley outright gets the nod.
The Buckeyes defensive weakness is the long ball, and the Hoosiers don’t have the shooters to light it up from behind the arc registering a 30.9% mark on the road this season. Indiana has held nine of their ten Big Ten opponents to 73 or fewer points. The Spartans were the only club to exceed that number using their height edge to their advantage something the Buckeyes don’t have.
Rivalry games produce the unexpected and as mentioned there are few teams that hate each other as much as the Dawgs and the Gators. These games often take on a life of their own and are comparable to a Final Four fixture for either side. The Dawgs are sick of being bullied by the Gators and this seems like the prime opportunity to put their recent slew of wins to an end. Florida comes in off an impressive win and that in itself sets up the Gators for a let-down in their follow-up. When you couple this with the Dawgs entering on a losing streak, the low hanging-fruit seems like a steal here. However, Georgia gets this one at home and in a feud as potent as this one that can affect the outcome of this contest. Albeit, the small number presented from the open would suggest that the Dawgs are in line to orchestrate an upset. Be that as it may, we get points to boot. Dawgs get the call.
The Jayhawks have allowed 80.2 points per game on the road in Big 12 games with three of their four opponents scoring 84 or greater points. KSU doesn’t light up the board in every game with case in point being their 56 points scored on 18 of 47 shooting. However, they were extremely sharp in their previous five games scoring 81.6 PPG on a 53.15 FG%. Defensively, at home they’ve been brilliant in recent games, holding their last three opponents to 51, 68, and 69 which was 15, 9.5 and 12.4 points respectively below their seasonal averages.
Boilermakers at Hoosiers Prediction 1/28/2018I'm not questioning Purdue's superiority, but Indiana is unbeaten at home in Big Ten matches this season. The Hoosiers home victories didn't come against top-flight teams, beating Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State, and Iowa, so I'm not going to call for an outright win, but I think that they can compete and stay within double digits. I'll side with home side here.
The Hawkeyes have scored 75.1 points per game in conference games, but that number is inflated by the 104 points scored in the overtime game against the Illini. Four Big Ten teams have held Iowa to fewer than 70 points, and that's where I think they fall today. The Cornhuskers are certainly not an offensive juggernaut relying on their defense to give them a chance to win, and that's precisely what it has done in conference games. Nebraska has scored 65.9 points in the ten games while allowing 65.1 and holding eight of their ten rivals to fewer than 70 points.
This fixture has been booked as an early-season clash of Southern Conference titans. Undoubtedly, this game will have an impact on the outcome of the regular season standings and eventual seeding in the Southern Conference standings. Whilst post-season tournaments are a season within themselves, the regular season can offer plenty of incentives and momentum if things go well. Wofford has seemed to be unstoppable at home this season, thus the number that we see on the table here resonates with us. When you couple the fact that Wofford has been riding a hot hand as of late, the figure almost seems to good to be true for those wishing to book the Terriers as a dog. However, as we have revealed recently Wofford has been the benefactors of good fortune. The Terriers remain the 3rd luckiest team in America whilst playing a 260th ranked strength of schedule according to KenPom. Given the low-hanging fruit this seems like a spot where a correction could come in and hand Wofford a loss in close games they have been on the beneficial side of all season long. When you toss in the fact, ETSU owns advantages in field goal percentage, defense, rebounding, and points per game…it seems like a certitude. Swallow the points.
The Badgers don’t come into this game on a roll having dropped four out of their last five straight up and against the spread, but I think that they can be competitive in this game. They've been hurt by their injuries at the guard position with both Kobe King and D’Mitrik Trice being out. Trice who has been out since December 6th has a chance to return tonight and that would be a massive boost for this team. Wisconsin obviously hasn't impressed over their last five contests, but they haven't been outmatched in all five crushing Illinois by 25 at home and playing Nebraska and Rutgers both tough in four-point losses. The Spartans haven't had a problem extending the margin at home, but for the most part, the recent competition has been weak, and I believe the linemaker is reaching here.
According to KenPom, the Phoenix are the 27h luckiest team in the country according to the results they attained against nominal opposition. KenPom ranks Wagner’s schedule as one of the weakest in terms of strength across the country. Presently, the Seahawks SOS sits at 331st. What this signals to us is that the Seahawks’ record is a bit of a misnomer. There are many factors in addition to this that convey there is equity in backing St. Francis here.
Wagner is undefeated at home this season. On the road, they have lost all six of their defeats. Psychologically this narrative can play many tricks on the Seahawks and their resultant performance. Whilst one can suggest that there many inaccuracies in how both Wagner and St. Francis are priced due to little market action, we have to like that position given the fact the metrics reveal the Seahawks are in line for a likely significant loss. Swallow the points.
Neither squad has been tearing it up in conference play with Utah holding a 4-4 record and ASU 3-4. The Sun Devils are just 1-1 in PAC-12 matches, losing by four to the Ducks a team that the Utes beat by 10 on the road and beat the Beavers by two, a team that the Utes again beat on the road. Arizona State did win by three earlier in Utah, but this is a team that has yet to cover a spread in seven conference games. The previous match between these two squads was tied in the last minute and I see no reason to expect a different type of game this go around.
According to KenPom, the Phoenix are the 16th luckiest team in the country according to the results they have achieved. With this being said, Elon has been on the end of some positive outcomes in situations that could have gone against them. On paper, this looks like a scenario where such variables won’t even come into the fold. However, if we take a closer look at the line offering here the market would suggest otherwise.
As mentioned, these two teams last met under a month ago and Elon won by 13 more points than the price asked here. With respect to home court advantage, one would still expect that number to be a bit higher thus all of the public intrigue out of the gate. However, Elon averages just .4 more points per game than Drexel (72.4 ppg for Elon versus 72.0 ppg for Drexel). The Phoenix also average just .3 more offensive rebounds per game compared to their counterparts (32.9 off rpg for Elon and 32.6 off rpg for Drexel, respectively). When you factor in the road woes that Elon has sustained, there is a very good chance that these numbers may not live up to the mean. If that is the case, Drexel is in line for an upset. Toss in the points and we will lock and load the Dragons.
The Cornhuskers have been competitive in most road games but are just 2-6 on the road this season. The Scarlet Knights are 2-2 as a host in conference games, but their scoring against competent defenses is a concern making a point spread pick on this game not the logical way to bet this game. The total though is worth playing. In their last seven Big Ten games Nebraska has held all but Purdue to 65 or fewer points and now face a team that has scored 59.9 points per game in conference action. The Rutgers’ low scoring average is misleading with an overtime game against MSU (59 points in regulation) and a blowout win over Iowa putting up 80 points against the Hawkeyes porous defense. Two good defenses facing questionable offenses has me forecasting a 60-55 type game.
Situational betting is a big part of our approach. There are several contributing factors here that make the Keydets a savory play. First, the stock on the Terriers is through the ceiling as they are one of the hottest teams in the Southern Conference. With each win they accumulate, you can expect to pay a heftier price to back them. When you couple this with Wofford’s dominance over VMI in this series, it is a certainty. However, VMI has a couple of variables that can foster a cover here.
First, Wofford has a losing record on the road and like many proficient teams in college basketball dominates at home. With this being said, VMI is the more physical team on the boards in creating second chance opportunities. Wofford averages 27.8 rebounds per game to VMI’s 29.8. Furthermore, the two teams have played comparable schedules in terms of quality whilst Wofford owns the second-ranked Luck quotient in all the land, according to KenPom. When you combine these narratives, there is a very good chance VMI is in a spot to not only cover but perhaps pull an upset outright.
Northwestern has put up greater than 70 points in one Big Ten game this season and it came against Minnesota and I don’t think that they can repeat in the rematch. In true road games this season, they’ve averaged a meagre 61.5 points per game. In three conference road contests the number is skewed because of the 46 points scored against Indiana, so the 59.3 PPG is misleading, but what isn’t misleading is that they didn’t reach 70 points in all three. Minnesota has put up 71 points per game in Big Ten home games, however their previous game against NWU earlier this season on the road (60 points) and the team’s recent play scoring 66 or fewer points in four of their last five has me projecting a lower number. The probability of either team hitting 70 points is low making a total forecast on this game an easy call.
This situation sets up with the ideal ingredients for us to step in. At first glance, the prospect of a team like Rider with its current record being given away against a team with a losing record like Fairfield could seem like a deal and a half. However, the proof lies in the pudding that this is not the case.
The two teams played congruent schedules in terms of overall strength. In fact, Rider’s ranks 210th whilst Fairfield’s SOS sits at 234th according to KenPom. However, the luck quotient has been resting solely with the Broncs as they are ranked 71st in that department while the Stags are 230th. Very easily, these two teams could have been closer in wins and losses. Furthermore, Fairfield in particular will be surging into this game after the work they put in against Niagara on Saturday. Rider is lucky to get away with a win. Now, we get the team with the hot hand at home with points to boot. Fairfield bodes tremendous value.
The Mountaineers have two losses in Big 12 action and in both games, they were out-played and out-scored in the second half. Their inability to play a full 40 minutes at times this season is a concern especially when they head to Fort Worth and take to the floor of the Schollmaier Arena tonight. The tenacious Horned Frogs are an excellent second half team and are a good 10-2 at home and can prevail here.
The game against the Hawkeyes (80 -64) was an aberration to the scoring pattern of the Scarlet Knights who had averaged 57.6 points per game in regulation over their previous six Big Ten games. Michigan has scored 69.5 points per game in conference matches, but their shooters have been ice cold in their last two games registering a 39.31 FG%. The Scarlet Knights have played well defensively in recent games holding their Big 10 opponents to 68 or fewer PPG in regulation over the last four.
I’m going to go with the hot hand here. The Buffaloes have yet to taste defeat at home on the scoreboard and at the betting windows versus a conference rival this season. They’ve won four out of five losing only to USC on the road over that stretch. They’ve played well at both ends of the court holding their opponents to an ultra-impressive 39 FG% while shooting 46.3 themselves. The Huskies come into this match scoring an average of 63 points on an ice-cold 40.3 shooting percentage over their last five, dropping three of those games. I don’t like laying this many points, but the form alone suggests that this is the logical play.