College Basketball Picks - ATS Predictions
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The Knights are just 2-2 as a true road team this season, but one of their losses was against a decent Mizz team losing by two in overtime in their first real road game of the season. The other defeat came against Wichita State who was hitting everything that match and were not going to be stopped. UCF has had Memphis number over the last two seasons and has done a good job containing Memphis top scoring threat Jeremiah Martin holding him to 17 at home and 11 on the road last season. This game is too close to call versus the spread as either team could get the victory and the money, but the total looks beatable. In 2018 these teams combined for 132 and 121 points and while I do forecast I higher number this time around we have 16 points to play with.
The lack of scoring outside of Langford and Morgan for Indiana really shows. We saw it in the last game between these two teams. The duo combined for 42 of the teams 63 points. The Hoosiers can quickly get back on track, and turn their season around if some of their other guys start contributing more. As far as next Friday's game goes, we're taking the Wolverines on the road. This should be a great game.
Iowa has shown their ability to upset a ranked opponent following a 72-62 upset over no. 16 Ohio State a week ago. That win propelled the Hawkeyes into the top 25 of the AP poll rankings, pushing them up three spots from no. 26 to no. 23. The Spartans took care of Iowa back in early December, winning 90-68. Ward led the way for Michigan State with 26 points and 9 rebounds. Goins also posted an impressive stat line of 19 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists. The scary thing about that win is the Spartans still won by 22 points despite their leading scorer Cassius Winston only contributing 8 points. Winston did a lot of distributing in the game though with a team-high 12 assists.
It may sound odd, but I don’t think that the Tar Heels have enough offense to get past the Hokies tonight. Virginia Tech rarely gives up more than 70 points doing so on just three occasions and while that happened in their last two the game against Wake Forest (87-71) they ran into foul trouble and played a lot of back-ups in the second half. North Carolina shot over 50% from the field in their latest which was the first game in their last eight that they have eclipsed that mark, so it's not a given that they'll repeat. The Hokies have edges in shooting, turnover margin and if they can win the battle on the boards should win this outright.
Rivalry games produce the unexpected and can often alter the course of a season for a team that finds itself in a slump. Tennessee State can change its stars here and will enter into this affair with heightened motivation as they are sick and tired of Tennessee Tech slipping away. We'll trade away the points here and bank on the Tigers pulling off the upset.
The winner of this game will be the team that is able to get the pace of play in their favor. Iowa State wants to run and score a ton of points, and Texas Tech wants to lock in on defense. The Red Raiders look like the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, and they will be locked in at home.
There is also the rivalry element of this game and the fact that both teams have played just one Big West contest. For a team like UC Riverside who had struggled mightily in their non-conference play, a win here injects momentum into their program and puts them right in the thick of the Big West race. We have to like their motivation levels here against a conference rivalry that they are hungry to beat.
Winning on the road is always tough in college basketball, and this will be the biggest challenge for a young Duke squad. Florida State has a veteran squad that won’t be afraid of the Blue Devils freshmen phenoms. The problem for the Seminoles is that they struggle to score, and that won’t work against Duke.
East Tennessee won’t be caught off guard here by The Citadel’s approach toward the game. ETSU knows full well what can happen if they the Bulldogs play this contest on their terms and many can be assured that the Bucs will be prepared accordingly. Expect ETSU to take The Citadel out of their element and make this a defensive-oriented game that will ultimately wear out the Bulldogs and lead to a final tally below the projected total.
It would be no surprise if TCU upset Kansas at home on Wednesday. The team stats for both teams match up pretty evenly, as both teams hover around the 80 PPG mark. With TCU entering this game winners of 9 straight games, and the loss of Azubuike to Kansas it'll be tough for Lawson and company. IF TCU can control the boards and contain Lawson in this game they'll have a chance to move up in the rankings. In the end, the Horned Frogs go on the road and win this game. Bet the underdog TCU.
We will preface this with the notion that an upset is not of the question here by any means. Northeastern won here last year, and the upperclassmen on this basketball team know what it takes to defeat the undefeated Pride on its own hardwood. Be that as it may, there are more than enough points to work with here as this game will likely come down to the final possession if it is not a significant win for Northeastern.
The Red Flash made it as far as the 2017 NEC Championship before the Mount struck them down and ended their March Madness dreams. The good news is with conference play comes a new season, and the Red Flash could cast aside their poor record against the 12th ranked schedule regarding strength and start off their NEC campaign on a high note. Given the fact they are favored considerably here, there is no to suspect that they won't and should win this one by a considerable margin given all their advantages.
The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 Conference regular season title 14 straight seasons, and Bill Self has a team good enough to extend that streak. Kansas faced a very difficult non-conference schedule, and they proved that they can beat anyone in the country. Oklahoma has the ability to pull off this upset, but they will have to play a near-perfect game.
Portland State will dictate the pace of this game and run the Road Runners out of town. Though Cal State Bakersfield has received more notoriety due to their accomplishments as of late compared to Portland State, the conditions in this contest are prime for the Vikings to win big regardless. Portland State comes on top by a significant margin.
Villanova should continue to get better as the season rolls along, but this isn't a great team at the moment. The Wildcats were a well-oiled machine at the end of last season, but the team isn't there yet. Kansas is almost impossible to beat at Allen Fieldhouse, and they will have a chip on their shoulder for this game. Look for the Jayhawks to make a statement with a huge win over Villanova on Saturday.
The Blue Raiders are a two-time defending Conference USA Regular Season Champion, and their reputation speaks for itself. This is a team that many have seen regularly appear in the Men's Basketball Tournament, but so far this season, it has not gone according to plan. Needless to say given what they are known as a heavy-hitting mid-major program, the Blue Raiders will feel a bit slighted as such a heavy dog against fellow mid-major brethren. This narrative will be a motivational tool that will give Middle Tennessee State enough juice to give Toledo a scare on their court.
An upset here is not out of the question given all the variables that come into the mix. However, in this predicament we are not looking for a win just a cover and chances are there are more points than we need to work with. Morehead State has played "bigger and badder" in far more hostile environments (Syracuse and UConn) this year, and this will be the difference maker in what will be a closer game than the line indicates.
The match-up dictates the play, and the market assessment of both teams allows Bowling Green to be offered at a bargain price. The Falcons will bully the Phoenix all over the court and could very well win this one by double-digits. All we are asked to do is spot a bucket, tremendous value.
Purdue looked overwhelmed in their Big Ten opener against Michigan, but playing at home should solve some of those issues. Maryland was able to open up conference play with a victory, but they were fortunate to beat Penn State. This should be a close game throughout, but Purdue has Carsen Edwards, and the Terrapins don't. Look for Edwards to lead his Purdue team to a Big Ten victory in this game.
After this contest, Fairfield will delve into MAAC play, and if they are able to do so with a record of 3-6 posting a win over a notable opponent, this will spur momentum for the Stags as they make their way through league play. Fairfield will treat this contest as something comparable to a post-season tournament fixture and seize the moment on their own floor. Given the fact both these teams like to shoot the three (Oakland is 27th in the country with a 40% three-point field goal percentage whilst Fairfield sits 37th with a 39.2% mark in that same department), the Golden Grizzlies are prone to a cold night given their road woes whilst the Stags can find their stroke with the home cooking. Given the high probability of such an event, Oakland can find themselves buried. Nevertheless, the end result of this overall competitive edge will lead to a comprehensive Fairfield victory where the Stags will cover a small allotment of points to spot.