Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs Odds & Pick
- Viejas Arena
It's a battle for first place in the Mountain West Conference when 17-5 San Diego State takes on 18-5 Boise State Friday night in San Diego. These two teams are tied for the lead in the MWC, and both seem well on their way toward berths in the Big Dance. But injuries may play a part in deciding this one.
Who do we like for our free college basketball betting pick?
College Basketball Betting Odds
Friday's CBB betting lines opened San Diego State as a seven-point favorite over Boise State, with an over/under of right around 134. Early betting action then dipped the Aztecs to -5.5.
According to Sagarin's CBB ratings at USAToday.com, SD State should only be favored by 2.5 points for this match-up.
Boise State-San Diego State Betting Preview
The Broncos ride a three-game winning streak into Friday night after beating Air Force Tuesday night 59-52. Boise State, favored by eight points, trailed by eight early but used a 30-9 run to lead 34-21 at the half. The Broncos then fell down to the Falcons 46-45 with seven minutes left but re-took the lead for good the next time down the court and held on from there.
However, Boise State came up a bucket short of the cover.
The Broncos only shot 43 percent from the floor Tuesday but held Air Force to just 39 percent FG shooting. Boise State also held short edges in rebounds 32-30 and turnovers 11-10.
Just enough to win a tough game.
Unfortunately for the Broncos starters, Naje Smith (10 points, five rebounds per game this season) and Marcus Shaver (13/6 and four assists pg) both left Tuesday's game with injuries, and both are listed as questionable for Friday night.
Two games ago, Boise State beat Colorado State 80-59 and covered at -8. Three games ago, the Broncos beat Fresno State 63-53 but came up just short ATS at -12.
At 18-5 overall, Boise State looks like a pretty good bet to make it back to the NCAA tournament for the second straight season.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs just had a four-game winning streak snapped by a 75-66 loss at Nevada Tuesday night. San Diego State led 11-4 early and 30-28 at the half, then fell down by seven early in the second half. The Aztecs then rallied to lead 60-59 with just under five minutes to go but ran out of gas and got outscored 16-6 from there, losing outright as two-point favorites.
San Diego State only shot 43 percent from the field Tuesday, allowed the Wolf Pack to shoot 50 percent, and lost the turnover battle 11-6.
Before that loss, the Aztecs won four in a row over Colorado State, Air Force, Utah State, and San Jose State by an average of 12 points, covering spreads of 4.5, 9, 7, and 13.5.
At 17-5 overall, San Diego State seems well on its way to a third straight Big Dance appearance.
Boise State-San Diego State Recent History
The Aztecs beat the Broncos six times in a row from 2019 through 2021, but Boise State swept three games from San Diego State last season, taking two games during the regular season, then the MWC tournament championship game 53-52.
All three of those games played Under on the total line.
- Get more details: Boise State at San Diago State 2/3/23 Betting Stats
College Basketball Betting Trends
Boise State is 3-1 ATS over the last four meetings with San Diego State.
- The Unders are 12-10 in Boise State games this season averaging 133 total points.
- The Overs are 13-8 in San Diego State games this season averaging 141 points.
- The Unders are 4-0 over the last four meetings between these teams.
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs Prediction ATS
San Diego State got out-played and out-shot Tuesday night against Nevada; we expect a bounce-back effort Friday night. Also, the Aztecs are one of the very best defensive teams in the country. Meanwhile, Boise State might be down a couple of starters. We’re giving the points with San Diego State here.