Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Total Line Betting Pick


The surprising second-place Portland Trail Blazers will try and cut deeper into the San Antonio Spurs' already slim lead in the Western Conference standings when these two NBA heavyweights clash this Friday night at the AT&T Center. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.

Point Spread: San Antonio -6
Total Line: 212.5
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Game Overview
Portland stumbled into the New Year with bad losses to Philadelphia and Sacramento, but it will bring a three-game winning streak into Friday night's showdown after beating Cleveland 108-96 this past Wednesday as a 10.5-point home favorite. The Trail Blazers are now 29-9 straight-up on the year with a 22-16 record against the spread. They have an impressive 13-5 SU (11-7 ATS) record on the road and the total has gone OVER in 13 of the 18 games.
The Trail Blazers dramatic turnaround from a team that missed the playoffs last season with just 33 total wins has been fueled by an offense that is now first in the league in scoring with an average of 109.1 points. LaMarcus Aldridge has led the way with 23.8 points, but there are five other players averaging at least nine points a game. Portland is shooting a pedestrian 45.6 percent from the field, but it is ranked second in the NBA from 3-point range with a shooting percentage of 39.7. While defense has not always been their strong suit, the Trail Blazers are also ranked second in the league in total rebounds (46.7).

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The Spurs ran their current winning streak to six games with Wednesday's 109-105 victory over Utah, but they failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. During this run they are 3-3 ATS as part of an overall record of just 20-19 ATS. San Antonio is 16-5 SU this season at home but this record drops to a costly 9-12 ATS. The total went OVER the 199.5-point closing line against the Jazz and it has now gone OVER in 14 of its 21 home games.
This is another team that can light up the scoreboard on a nightly basis with 104.7 points a game, but unlike Portland, the Spurs have been effective on the other end of the court as well. They are holding teams to an average of 96.6 points, which is the fifth lowest total in the league. The veteran trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili continue to account for the bulk of the production with a combined 45.4 points, 15.5 rebounds and 14.1 assists a game. Kawhi Leonard has also come up big with 12 points and 6.2 rebounds and Marco Belinelli is hitting 50 percent of his shots from outside the perimeter.

Betting Trends
The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and just 4-10 ATS in their 14 games overall. The total has gone OVER in their last six games against a team from the Southwest Division.
The Spurs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team from the Northwest Division and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a SU winning record on the road. The total has gone OVER in 20 of their last 27 home games.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but Portland holds an 11-5 edge ATS in the last 16 games. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six games.

Total Line Pick
This should be a great matchup between two teams that go about their business in much different ways, but the end result is remarkably similar. I am staying away from a pick on a side for this game because it is just too close to call with the points. What I do like is this total going OVER despite how high it has been set. Both teams have been scoring above their average lately and this trend continues in a wild shootout this Friday night.