Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Pick

February 28, 8:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Milwaukee -10.5 (-105)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (37-22) and Milwaukee Bucks (50-8) will square off in the Fiserv Forum for a high-profile Eastern Conference versus Western Conference clash on Friday, February 28th, 2020 with a scheduled tip-off time of 8:00 PM ET. The game will be of national interest and will be televised on both ESPN and FSN. The Bucks and the Thunder have traded wins and losses in this series as of late, as each party has won two of the last four meetings. Most recently, the Deer traveled to OKC in November and narrowly escaped with a 121-119 win. The resultant allowed the Thunder to cover easily as an 8.5-point underdog.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Key Injury Concerns

Bucks Shooting Guard Kyle Korver will be unavailable for this game due to a back injury. Korver is most notably known for his three-point shooting proficiency.

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks Overview

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder come into this game on a five-game winning streak capped off most recently by a 112-108 win at home, last night against the Sacramento Kings. Closing as a 7.5-point favorite, the Thunder were unable to cash in for their second consecutive game.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks enter in off a 108-97 win attained in the Great White North on Tuesday against the defending champion, Toronto Raptors. Closing as a one-point underdog, the Deer were able to gallop to an outright win.

Reasons to Avoid Oklahoma City

The Thunder step into this game on a back-to-back and three-in-four situation. At this time of the season, that could be a scheduled loss with respect to fatigue. This is especially disconcerting for the Thunder as they are up against the best defense in the league in terms of field goal percentage (Milwaukee allows opponents to shoot just 41.2% against them) and the most physical team in the NBA on the boards. No unit generates more rebounds per game (51.8) than the Bucks. OKC's calling card is their shooting proficiency (47.4% - 4th overall in the NBA), and if that is not working for them, they are in prime position to be bullied here in the Cream City.

Reasons to Back Milwaukee

The Bucks have lost just three games at home this season and operate an average margin of +13.4 on their hardwood. By virtue of this narrative alone, the Bucks are worth a look here as we are getting them at a reduced price by contrast. Moreover, the trends behind Oklahoma City put them in position to be overvalued here (even with enhanced points) as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with no rest and 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 road games against a team with a winning record. Milwaukee has a strong enough home presence to bring forth “bucking” that trend. Adding in additional rest in Milwaukee's favor, and that makes it that much harder for the Thunder to overcome the number as they are likely working with fewer points than they should be taking back.

Thunder at Bucks Prediction

All season long, the Thunder have been a bit of a revelation and an ATS darling. I can't help but think that the Thunder getting all these points on the road makes them look too easy here and perhaps could be a pure "trap bet." I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of Milwaukee's home-court advantage and OKC's fatigue results in Milwaukee clobbering Oklahoma City. I'll swallow the points.

Free Pick: 
Take Milwaukee -10.5 (-105)